Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +23.9% Premium; Fallen But Remains in Historically Extreme Territory</li>
<li>UMC: -3.6% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread</li>
<li>ASE: +0.3% Premium; Can Consider Going Long the Spread at Current Level</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +23.9% Premium; Fallen But Remains in Historically Extreme Territory
UMC: -3.6% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
ASE: +0.3% Premium; Can Consider Going Long the Spread at Current Level


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Down But Still Extreme; UMC Rare ADR Discount Level

<ul>
<li>UMC Results This Week; Insight Into Supply/Demand Environment for More Mature Semiconductor Segments</li>
<li>Nvidia and TSMC Announce Partnership in Silicon Photonics Technology -- Will Enable More Energy-Efficient AI</li>
<li>TSMC 4Q24 Results Signal Multi-Year Market Share Gains; Margin Strength; Sustainable Industry Growth </li>
</ul>


UMC Results This Week; Insight Into Supply/Demand Environment for More Mature Semiconductor Segments
Nvidia and TSMC Announce Partnership in Silicon Photonics Technology -- Will Enable More Energy-Efficient AI
TSMC 4Q24 Results Signal Multi-Year Market Share Gains; Margin Strength; Sustainable Industry Growth 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: UMC Results Ahead; Nvidia & TSMC Partner for Silicon Photonics Technology

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Asian equities are at record valuation discount to that of US. Slightly lower earnings growth and ROE forecasts for Asia don't justify the steep discounts, we believe.</li>
<li>However, EPS estimates are a concern. Asia's consensus EPS estimate for 2025 has declined 9% over past 10 months, dragged down by China and Korea. USA's has remained virtually flat.</li>
<li>Based on our themes of continued AI spending, China's consumption recovery and "unloved India", our top picks remain TSMC, Tencent, Yum China, HDFC Bank and SK Hynix.</li>
</ul>


Asian equities are at record valuation discount to that of US. Slightly lower earnings growth and ROE forecasts for Asia don't justify the steep discounts, we believe.
However, EPS estimates are a concern. Asia's consensus EPS estimate for 2025 has declined 9% over past 10 months, dragged down by China and Korea. USA's has remained virtually flat.
Based on our themes of continued AI spending, China's consumption recovery and "unloved India", our top picks remain TSMC, Tencent, Yum China, HDFC Bank and SK Hynix.


Asian Equities: US Exceptionalism Vs Asian Valuation Allure

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Luxshare Precision Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Apple suppliers shifting focus to India and China for iPhone production growth, adapting supply chains to changing markets.</li><li>Jensen Huang boosting AI chip production by visiting SPIL's new Taiwan factory; Huawei's Mate X6 smartphone making global comeback in EMEA markets.</li><li>TSMC forecasting 5% revenue decrease in 1Q25, setting record capex for 2025; India-US tech ties in jeopardy due to export controls on AI chips.</li></ul>

Apple suppliers shifting focus to India and China for iPhone production growth, adapting supply chains to changing markets.Jensen Huang boosting AI chip production by visiting SPIL's new Taiwan factory; Huawei's Mate X6 smartphone making global comeback in EMEA markets.TSMC forecasting 5% revenue decrease in 1Q25, setting record capex for 2025; India-US tech ties in jeopardy due to export controls on AI chips.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-Jan-2025): Apple's supply chain shifts to India and China.

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> logged record quarterly profits, but some tactical considerations stemming from our WEEKLY model analysis suggest the stock is short-term OVERBOUGHT.</li>
<li>Both the Time Model and the Price Model are indicating the stock does not have much room to go higher before a possible pullback, maybe 1-2 more weeks, target 1143.</li>
<li>The pullback will be an opportunity to buy at slightly discounted prices, rather than pile in at the highest possible price. The long-term outlook is bullish, buy-the dip. </li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) logged record quarterly profits, but some tactical considerations stemming from our WEEKLY model analysis suggest the stock is short-term OVERBOUGHT.
Both the Time Model and the Price Model are indicating the stock does not have much room to go higher before a possible pullback, maybe 1-2 more weeks, target 1143.
The pullback will be an opportunity to buy at slightly discounted prices, rather than pile in at the highest possible price. The long-term outlook is bullish, buy-the dip. 


TSMC (2330.TT) Posted Record Profits, But Our Model Flashes "OVERBOUGHT": Should You Wait to Invest?

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Down But Still Extreme; UMC Rare ADR Discount Level

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: UMC Results Ahead; Nvidia & TSMC Partner for Silicon Photonics Technology

UMC will report results this week. Nvidia and TSMC partnership in silicon photonics to tackle AI's high energy problem.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Asian Equities: US Exceptionalism Vs Asian Valuation Allure

Asia's slightly lower EPS growth & ROE than US's don't justify the huge discount the former trades at. EPS est decline is a worry though. Our top...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-Jan-2025): Apple's supply chain shifts to India and China.

Apple, Huawei, TSMC, and Acer make moves in the tech industry while US-India tech ties face challenges and Trump's response to economic crisis...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

TSMC (2330.TT) Posted Record Profits, But Our Model Flashes "OVERBOUGHT": Should You Wait to Invest?

Taiwan Semiconductor reports record profits, but our models indicate the stock (TSMC, 2330.TT) is short-term OVERBOUGHT. We present a tactical...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Down But Still Extreme; UMC Rare ADR Discount Level

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: UMC Results Ahead; Nvidia & TSMC Partner for Silicon Photonics Technology

​UMC will report results this week. Nvidia and TSMC partnership in silicon photonics to tackle AI's high energy problem.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Asian Equities: US Exceptionalism Vs Asian Valuation Allure

​Asia's slightly lower EPS growth & ROE than US's don't justify the huge discount the former trades at. EPS est decline is a worry though. Our top...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-Jan-2025): Apple's supply chain shifts to India and China.

Apple, Huawei, TSMC, and Acer make moves in the tech industry while US-India tech ties face challenges and Trump's response to economic crisis...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

TSMC (2330.TT) Posted Record Profits, But Our Model Flashes "OVERBOUGHT": Should You Wait to Invest?

​Taiwan Semiconductor reports record profits, but our models indicate the stock (TSMC, 2330.TT) is short-term OVERBOUGHT. We present a tactical...

Nico Rosti

UMC will report results this week. Nvidia and TSMC partnership in silicon photonics to tackle AI's high energy problem.

Asia's slightly lower EPS growth & ROE than US's don't justify the huge discount the former trades at. EPS est decline is a worry though. Our top...

Taiwan Semiconductor reports record profits, but our models indicate the stock (TSMC, 2330.TT) is short-term OVERBOUGHT. We present a tactical...