Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Q424 revenue forecast of $26.5 billion, up 13% QoQ and the highest Q3 to Q4 revenue jump since Q4 2017</li>
<li>Demand for AI acceleration is real and just beginning. According to a key customer of theirs, "demand right now is just insane"</li>
<li>Overseas fabs progressing well with Arizona yielding well and on track for high volume production in early 2025</li>
</ul>


Q424 revenue forecast of $26.5 billion, up 13% QoQ and the highest Q3 to Q4 revenue jump since Q4 2017
Demand for AI acceleration is real and just beginning. According to a key customer of theirs, "demand right now is just insane"
Overseas fabs progressing well with Arizona yielding well and on track for high volume production in early 2025


Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Main positive surprise in 3Q24 is a sharp margins expansion, reflecting Utilization increase. OP 9% above Consensus.</li>
<li>Main positive surprise in 4Q24 guidance: high QoQ revenue growth at 13%, which suggests further Utilization increase and TSMC could beat its margins guidance again.  </li>
<li>Net Income growth is accelerating in 2H24 to ~55% YoY. The stock is not that expensive, we estimate trading at 17.2x 2025 and 13.8x 2026 EPS.</li>
</ul>


Main positive surprise in 3Q24 is a sharp margins expansion, reflecting Utilization increase. OP 9% above Consensus.
Main positive surprise in 4Q24 guidance: high QoQ revenue growth at 13%, which suggests further Utilization increase and TSMC could beat its margins guidance again.  
Net Income growth is accelerating in 2H24 to ~55% YoY. The stock is not that expensive, we estimate trading at 17.2x 2025 and 13.8x 2026 EPS.


TSMC: 3Q24 Large Beat, Guidance Better, the Stock Is Not Expensive

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>4Q24 Guidance: Sales will be US$26.1-26.9bn, up 13%; GM outlook will be 57-59%; and OPM outlook is 46.5-48.5%</li>
<li>AI revenue contribution will triple and reach mid-teens sales contribution this year. Almost every AI innovator cooperates with TSMC.</li>
<li>APT will grow above the corporate average in the next five years.GM is approaching the corporate average, but it's not the same currently.</li>
</ul>


4Q24 Guidance: Sales will be US$26.1-26.9bn, up 13%; GM outlook will be 57-59%; and OPM outlook is 46.5-48.5%
AI revenue contribution will triple and reach mid-teens sales contribution this year. Almost every AI innovator cooperates with TSMC.
APT will grow above the corporate average in the next five years.GM is approaching the corporate average, but it's not the same currently.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outgrowth; Co-Work with Almost AI Innovators.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +15.6% Premium; Relatively Aggressive Trade is to Long Premium</li>
<li>ASE: -3.0% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Premium</li>
<li>CHT: -2.8% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Premium</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +15.6% Premium; Relatively Aggressive Trade is to Long Premium
ASE: -3.0% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Premium
CHT: -2.8% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Premium


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Holding Up; ASE & CHT See Sharp Drops

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 11th which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,014.8bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,158mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Fubon Financial, Quanta Computer, Wistron.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 11th which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,014.8bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,158mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Fubon Financial, Quanta Computer, Wistron.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 11th): TSMC, Fubon Financial, Quanta Computer, Wistron

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC Q324 Earnings Key Takeaways

Q424 revenue forecast of $26.5 billion, up 13% QoQ and the highest Q3 to Q4 revenue jump since Q4 2017. According to a key customer, demand for AI...

William Keating

TSMC: 3Q24 Large Beat, Guidance Better, the Stock Is Not Expensive

Margins expansion from 3Q24 reflects Utilization finally picking up, driving gross margins up. Yet, utilization is only at ~80% in 3Q24 when 10...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outgrowth; Co-Work with Almost AI Innovators.

TSMC's 4Q24 guidance shows strong sales growth, with AI revenue set to triple and contribute significantly to overall sales. APT expected to...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Holding Up; ASE & CHT See Sharp Drops

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 11th): TSMC, Fubon Financial, Quanta Computer, Wistron

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Fubon Financial, Quanta Computer, Wistron.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC Q324 Earnings Key Takeaways

Q424 revenue forecast of $26.5 billion, up 13% QoQ and the highest Q3 to Q4 revenue jump since Q4 2017. According to a key customer, demand for AI...

William Keating

TSMC: 3Q24 Large Beat, Guidance Better, the Stock Is Not Expensive

Margins expansion from 3Q24 reflects Utilization finally picking up, driving gross margins up. Yet, utilization is only at ~80% in 3Q24 when 10...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outgrowth; Co-Work with Almost AI Innovators.

​TSMC's 4Q24 guidance shows strong sales growth, with AI revenue set to triple and contribute significantly to overall sales. APT expected to...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Holding Up; ASE & CHT See Sharp Drops

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 11th): TSMC, Fubon Financial, Quanta Computer, Wistron

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Fubon Financial, Quanta Computer, Wistron.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TSMC's 4Q24 guidance shows strong sales growth, with AI revenue set to triple and contribute significantly to overall sales. APT expected to...