Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Like other automotive/industrial semi vendors, Diodes guides 4Q23 sales of 20% q/q and 35% y/y decline (miss by 21%) and weaker gross margin/operating margin of 35%/7% (miss by 5ppts).</li>
<li>The company sees 4Q23 sales decline of 20% mainly from 19% of automotive and 26% of industrial customers due to customer inventory cut coupled with year-end distributor inventory management. </li>
<li>We expect this adjustment for automotive/industrial IDMs to last for at least 6 months and suggest our clients to avoid these names unless valuation becoming attractive.  </li>
</ul>


Like other automotive/industrial semi vendors, Diodes guides 4Q23 sales of 20% q/q and 35% y/y decline (miss by 21%) and weaker gross margin/operating margin of 35%/7% (miss by 5ppts).
The company sees 4Q23 sales decline of 20% mainly from 19% of automotive and 26% of industrial customers due to customer inventory cut coupled with year-end distributor inventory management. 
We expect this adjustment for automotive/industrial IDMs to last for at least 6 months and suggest our clients to avoid these names unless valuation becoming attractive.  


With No Surprise, Diodes Guides Automotive/Industrial Semi Demand to Fall over 20% Q/Q

<ul>
<li>During MOI correction period, global semi equipment and manufacturing vendors might under-perform semi product companies on sales/earnings and share price performance in next 6 months given utilization remains below 80%.</li>
<li>A healthy MOI correction in PC/smartphone semi might result in global logic MOI to fall to 3.7-3.8 months in 3Q23, down 15% q/q and 8% y/y, heading to historical low. </li>
<li>China fabless reduced MOI to 6.4 months in 3Q23, down 16% q/q and 26% y/y. Although 2x over 3.5 months low, we expect 4-5 months in future due to restrictions.</li>
</ul>


During MOI correction period, global semi equipment and manufacturing vendors might under-perform semi product companies on sales/earnings and share price performance in next 6 months given utilization remains below 80%.
A healthy MOI correction in PC/smartphone semi might result in global logic MOI to fall to 3.7-3.8 months in 3Q23, down 15% q/q and 8% y/y, heading to historical low. 
China fabless reduced MOI to 6.4 months in 3Q23, down 16% q/q and 26% y/y. Although 2x over 3.5 months low, we expect 4-5 months in future due to restrictions.


More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We see early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone markets, stable server market (strengths in AI server, stable in non-AI server market), but weaknesses in automotive and industrial.</li>
<li>We expect the PC semi market recovery of more than 10% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and silicon contents increase by adding AI into PC.</li>
<li>We expect the smartphone semi market recovery of 7-8% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and adopting 3nE foundry node. But, Huawei/HiSilicon will take some of the growth.</li>
</ul>


We see early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone markets, stable server market (strengths in AI server, stable in non-AI server market), but weaknesses in automotive and industrial.
We expect the PC semi market recovery of more than 10% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and silicon contents increase by adding AI into PC.
We expect the smartphone semi market recovery of 7-8% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and adopting 3nE foundry node. But, Huawei/HiSilicon will take some of the growth.


First Run of Global Semis' Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>U.S. expands China chip restrictions -- Implementing lower performance thresholds and further restricting sales via third party countries.</li>
<li>Intel and AMD chips likely also impacted, as well as equipment from ASML, Lam, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron and others. We will learn more today from Lam and ASML results.</li>
<li>Taiwan AI Plays also to be impacted -- Shares of Wistron, Quanta, Gold Circuit, Asia Vital Gigabyte, Super Micro, Alchip appear precarious.</li>
</ul>


U.S. expands China chip restrictions -- Implementing lower performance thresholds and further restricting sales via third party countries.
Intel and AMD chips likely also impacted, as well as equipment from ASML, Lam, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron and others. We will learn more today from Lam and ASML results.
Taiwan AI Plays also to be impacted -- Shares of Wistron, Quanta, Gold Circuit, Asia Vital Gigabyte, Super Micro, Alchip appear precarious.


U.S. Expands China Chip Restrictions: Taiwan AI Names Most at Risk of Pullback

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday.</li>
<li>I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. </li>
<li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">So, without further adieu, let’s dive into the most important IP company in the world.</span></li>
</ul>


ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday.
I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. 
So, without further adieu, let’s dive into the most important IP company in the world.


Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

With No Surprise, Diodes Guides Automotive/Industrial Semi Demand to Fall over 20% Q/Q

With No Surprise, Diodes Guides Automotive/Industrial Semi Demand to Fall over 20% Q/Q, margin contraction, and rising months of inventory. We see...

Andrew Lu

More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction

More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction. During the period, global semi equipment and manufacturing...

Andrew Lu

First Run of Global Semis' Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

After the first Run of global semis' guidance, it tells early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone but weaknesses in automotive and industrial,...

Andrew Lu

U.S. Expands China Chip Restrictions: Taiwan AI Names Most at Risk of Pullback

Intel and AMD chips likely also impacted, as well as equipment from ASML, Lam, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron and others. Rather than sell...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ARM IPO Breakdown

ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday. I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. So, without...

Fabricated Knowledge

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