Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: 22.7% Premium; Good Level to Short the Spread Given Historical Trading Range</li>
<li>UMC: +0.2% Premium; Middle of Historical Trading Range; Short Interest Rises to New High</li>
<li>CHT: +0.5% Premium; Major Spike in Short Interest for the Local Taiwan Shares</li>
</ul>


TSMC: 22.7% Premium; Good Level to Short the Spread Given Historical Trading Range
UMC: +0.2% Premium; Middle of Historical Trading Range; Short Interest Rises to New High
CHT: +0.5% Premium; Major Spike in Short Interest for the Local Taiwan Shares


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread at Short Level; UMC and CHT Short Interest Spikes

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 4.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$1.1bn. Impact on the stocks is not big given they trade like water.</li>
<li>The selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a> will be amplified by selling from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-s-p-500-equal-weight-e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32932:1" rel="noopener">Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight E (RSP US)</a> ETFs. </li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$1.1bn. Impact on the stocks is not big given they trade like water.
The selling in Broadcom and NVIDIA will be amplified by selling from the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) and Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight E (RSP US) ETFs. 


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.2bn

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Lots of Jobs eliminated by Large Tech firms. Stable Mediatek-Qualcomm market share in Mobile. Foundry Top-10: 5-4-3nm still booming, Mature nodes still lagging.</li>
<li>Samsung multiple troubles. HBM3e still not qualified, losing iPhone OLED share, US CHIPS Act subsidies gone, Exynos 2500 delayed, Smartphone forecasts lower  </li>
<li>Intel new CEOs admit they don’t have an AI roadmap – Gaudi 3 failed, next-gen Falcon Shores is a learning opportunity… but 18A process on track (for 2027?).</li>
</ul>


Lots of Jobs eliminated by Large Tech firms. Stable Mediatek-Qualcomm market share in Mobile. Foundry Top-10: 5-4-3nm still booming, Mature nodes still lagging.
Samsung multiple troubles. HBM3e still not qualified, losing iPhone OLED share, US CHIPS Act subsidies gone, Exynos 2500 delayed, Smartphone forecasts lower  
Intel new CEOs admit they don’t have an AI roadmap – Gaudi 3 failed, next-gen Falcon Shores is a learning opportunity… but 18A process on track (for 2027?).


Tech News This Week: Samsung Multiple Negatives. Intel Facing Reality. TSMC, Mediatek.

<ul>
<li>TSMC’s N2 Progress Sparks Buzz Amid Yield Improvement Rumors; If True Then 2nm Will Become Even More Successful Than 3nm</li>
<li>Hon Hai &amp; TASA Showcase Homegrown Space Technologies Including an Alternative to Starlink</li>
<li>Himax: Buyback Program Lifts Shares; Auto Display Controllers, AR Displays &amp; WLO for AI Progressing </li>
</ul>


TSMC’s N2 Progress Sparks Buzz Amid Yield Improvement Rumors; If True Then 2nm Will Become Even More Successful Than 3nm
Hon Hai &amp; TASA Showcase Homegrown Space Technologies Including an Alternative to Starlink
Himax: Buyback Program Lifts Shares; Auto Display Controllers, AR Displays &amp; WLO for AI Progressing 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 2NM Yield Jump Rumors; Seeing Taiwan's Starlink Alternative Firsthand in KS

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Over 2024 and 2025, Asia-ex-Japan equities are up c30%. During this period, the 12-month forward EPS has expanded only 5.6%. Forward EPS recovery is essential to take the market higher.</li>
<li>Over the medium to long term, share prices track earnings, as we notice in our long-term analysis of forward EPS trajectory and market movement. Disjoint movements usually mean revert quickly.</li>
<li>Forward EPS could move up further in China, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. Hong Kong has overshot its forward EPS trajectory. Philippines has massively undershot. Other markets appear broadly in line.</li>
</ul>


Over 2024 and 2025, Asia-ex-Japan equities are up c30%. During this period, the 12-month forward EPS has expanded only 5.6%. Forward EPS recovery is essential to take the market higher.
Over the medium to long term, share prices track earnings, as we notice in our long-term analysis of forward EPS trajectory and market movement. Disjoint movements usually mean revert quickly.
Forward EPS could move up further in China, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. Hong Kong has overshot its forward EPS trajectory. Philippines has massively undershot. Other markets appear broadly in line.


Asian Equities: After Two Years of Rerating, Will Earnings Catch up in 2026?

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread at Short Level; UMC and CHT Short Interest Spikes

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.2bn

Float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 4.5% and a round-trip trade of US$2.2bn. Broadcom and Nvidia will also have...

Brian Freitas

Tech News This Week: Samsung Multiple Negatives. Intel Facing Reality. TSMC, Mediatek.

Tech industry facing job cuts. stable market share for Mediatek-Qualcomm in mobile, foundry top-10 sees growth in 5-4-3nm but struggles with...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 2NM Yield Jump Rumors; Seeing Taiwan's Starlink Alternative Firsthand in KS

Did a TSMC engineer disclose a production yield improvement for the company's 2nm manufacturing? In Kaohsiong, the development of Taiwan's upcoming...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Asian Equities: After Two Years of Rerating, Will Earnings Catch up in 2026?

Asia-ex-Japan equities have surged, but forward EPS growth is lagging. Nascent signs of EPS recovery in CN, KR, TW & TH. HK market has overshot...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread at Short Level; UMC and CHT Short Interest Spikes

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.2bn

Float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 4.5% and a round-trip trade of US$2.2bn. Broadcom and Nvidia will also have...

Brian Freitas

Tech News This Week: Samsung Multiple Negatives. Intel Facing Reality. TSMC, Mediatek.

​Tech industry facing job cuts. stable market share for Mediatek-Qualcomm in mobile, foundry top-10 sees growth in 5-4-3nm but struggles with...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 2NM Yield Jump Rumors; Seeing Taiwan's Starlink Alternative Firsthand in KS

Did a TSMC engineer disclose a production yield improvement for the company's 2nm manufacturing? In Kaohsiong, the development of Taiwan's upcoming...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Asian Equities: After Two Years of Rerating, Will Earnings Catch up in 2026?

​Asia-ex-Japan equities have surged, but forward EPS growth is lagging. Nascent signs of EPS recovery in CN, KR, TW & TH. HK market has overshot...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Tech industry facing job cuts. stable market share for Mediatek-Qualcomm in mobile, foundry top-10 sees growth in 5-4-3nm but struggles with...

Asia-ex-Japan equities have surged, but forward EPS growth is lagging. Nascent signs of EPS recovery in CN, KR, TW & TH. HK market has overshot...