Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. Remain aggressively long/continue to expect more upside into year-end and the early2026.</li>
<li>Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking out from its 7-month base, above the crucial 5500 level, and RS is attempting to reverse its 5-month downtrend -- buy.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. Remain aggressively long/continue to expect more upside into year-end and the early2026.
Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking out from its 7-month base, above the crucial 5500 level, and RS is attempting to reverse its 5-month downtrend -- buy.


Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>OpenAI, Samsung &amp; SK Hynix Lock In Memory Pact — Taiwan Next Stop</li>
<li>MediaTek’s Major ASIC Ambitions Face Delays from Some Key Clients</li>
<li>TSMC: New Signals Underscore N2’s Rise as a Blockbuster Node </li>
</ul>


OpenAI, Samsung &amp; SK Hynix Lock In Memory Pact — Taiwan Next Stop
MediaTek’s Major ASIC Ambitions Face Delays from Some Key Clients
TSMC: New Signals Underscore N2’s Rise as a Blockbuster Node 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI to Consume Nearly Half of Global DRAM; Why TSMC 2nm Will Be A Blockbuster

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>US Government invests $9bn in Intel, Nvidia another $5bn, Softbank $2bn. This solves Intel’s most pressing problem: the risk of financial fragility</li>
<li>But neither USG, nor Nvidia have semi manufacturing expertise, so $-injections don’t solve Intel’s 2nd problem. Intel has to  demonstrate a very solid 14A in the next 12 months</li>
<li>USG 1:1 import: domestic rule is positive to GlobalFoundries that can get orders away from SMIC or UMC. Positive to Texas Instrument</li>
</ul>


US Government invests $9bn in Intel, Nvidia another $5bn, Softbank $2bn. This solves Intel’s most pressing problem: the risk of financial fragility
But neither USG, nor Nvidia have semi manufacturing expertise, so $-injections don’t solve Intel’s 2nd problem. Intel has to  demonstrate a very solid 14A in the next 12 months
USG 1:1 import: domestic rule is positive to GlobalFoundries that can get orders away from SMIC or UMC. Positive to Texas Instrument


Intel: Money Only Solves Half the Problem. The 1:1 Domestic-To-Import Ratio Not a Clear Positive

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Global funds remain structurally underweight Asia, with Japan and China &amp; HK widely held but still below index weight; India stands out as the clearest consensus underweight.</li>
<li>Taiwan Technology dominates sector positioning as the largest regional overweight, while Australian and Asian Financials are structural underweights; rotation shows China sectors and Japan Financials/Industrials gaining traction.</li>
<li>Stock leadership is highly concentrated in TSMC, now owned by 61% of funds; second-tier names stagnate while SK Hynix, BYD, and Sea Ltd attract rising investor participation.</li>
</ul>


Global funds remain structurally underweight Asia, with Japan and China &amp; HK widely held but still below index weight; India stands out as the clearest consensus underweight.
Taiwan Technology dominates sector positioning as the largest regional overweight, while Australian and Asian Financials are structural underweights; rotation shows China sectors and Japan Financials/Industrials gaining traction.
Stock leadership is highly concentrated in TSMC, now owned by 61% of funds; second-tier names stagnate while SK Hynix, BYD, and Sea Ltd attract rising investor participation.


Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>In H1, Asia climbed several walls of worry. Valuations are slightly higher than long-term average. H2 could be more modest, as export driven growth moderates and trade agreements become contentious.</li>
<li>Our end-2025 targets are: MXASJ 850, SHCOMP 3760, Sensex 85000, HSI 26000, KOSPI 3400, TWSE 23500, Strait Times 4200, JCI 7450, SET 1150. Overweights on Korea, HK/China, India, continue.</li>
<li>Asian currencies should continue to appreciate, driving more FII flows. Benign inflation and headroom for monetary easing are key tailwinds. We expect two rate cuts by the Fed in 2025.</li>
</ul>


In H1, Asia climbed several walls of worry. Valuations are slightly higher than long-term average. H2 could be more modest, as export driven growth moderates and trade agreements become contentious.
Our end-2025 targets are: MXASJ 850, SHCOMP 3760, Sensex 85000, HSI 26000, KOSPI 3400, TWSE 23500, Strait Times 4200, JCI 7450, SET 1150. Overweights on Korea, HK/China, India, continue.
Asian currencies should continue to appreciate, driving more FII flows. Benign inflation and headroom for monetary easing are key tailwinds. We expect two rate cuts by the Fed in 2025.


H2 '25 Outlook: Modest H2 After Strong H1. Themes: Trade, Consumption, Tech Spending, Yields

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Europe EURO $STOXX 50 Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan $EWT, China $MCHI, Korea $EWY, and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI to Consume Nearly Half of Global DRAM; Why TSMC 2nm Will Be A Blockbuster

OpenAI, Samsung, and SK Hynix are forming alliances in the memory industry, while MediaTek faces delays in its ASIC ambitions and TSMC's N2 node is...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel: Money Only Solves Half the Problem. The 1:1 Domestic-To-Import Ratio Not a Clear Positive

USG, Nvidia, and Softbank invest billions in Intel to address financial fragility, but Intel must still demonstrate solid 14A in next 12 months....

Nicolas Baratte

Global Fund Positioning in Asia

Global funds stay structurally underweight Asia, with Japan and China leading the way. Taiwan Tech dominates sector overweights, while TSMC tops...

Steven Holden

H2 '25 Outlook: Modest H2 After Strong H1. Themes: Trade, Consumption, Tech Spending, Yields

As we approach the last quarter of 2025, most Asian market indices are higher than our end-25 targets, except India. Of our focus investment themes...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Europe EURO $STOXX 50 Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan $EWT, China $MCHI, Korea $EWY, and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI to Consume Nearly Half of Global DRAM; Why TSMC 2nm Will Be A Blockbuster

OpenAI, Samsung, and SK Hynix are forming alliances in the memory industry, while MediaTek faces delays in its ASIC ambitions and TSMC's N2 node is...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel: Money Only Solves Half the Problem. The 1:1 Domestic-To-Import Ratio Not a Clear Positive

​USG, Nvidia, and Softbank invest billions in Intel to address financial fragility, but Intel must still demonstrate solid 14A in next 12 months....

Nicolas Baratte

Global Fund Positioning in Asia

Global funds stay structurally underweight Asia, with Japan and China leading the way. Taiwan Tech dominates sector overweights, while TSMC tops...

Steven Holden

H2 '25 Outlook: Modest H2 After Strong H1. Themes: Trade, Consumption, Tech Spending, Yields

As we approach the last quarter of 2025, most Asian market indices are higher than our end-25 targets, except India. Of our focus investment themes...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

USG, Nvidia, and Softbank invest billions in Intel to address financial fragility, but Intel must still demonstrate solid 14A in next 12 months....