Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Summary</h2><ul>
<li>
BB ratio down to 0.91 for the first time in four-year and below parity in 11 months: North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $1.49 billion in orders worldwide in October 2016 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 0.91, according to SEMI.</li>
<li>
Sign of a downturn? For the time being, we identify the downturn as a seasonal one.  However, we would be cautious after Philadelphia and Taiwan Semiconductor index both reached record high levels.</li>
<li>
Checkpoint…</li>
</ul>

Summary

BB ratio down to 0.91 for the first time in four-year and below parity in 11 months: North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $1.49 billion in orders worldwide in October 2016 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 0.91, according to SEMI.

Sign of a downturn? For the time being, we identify the downturn as a seasonal one.  However, we would be cautious after Philadelphia and Taiwan Semiconductor index both reached record high levels.

Checkpoint…


N.A. Semiconductor Equipment BB Ratio to Four Year Low - Sign of a Downturn?

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

<ul><li>The biggest SGX-listed stocks that respectively represent the hardware, software and semiconductors industries are Venture Corporation, Silverlake Axis and UMS Holdings. </li><li>These three stocks have averaged a 19.2% total return in the 2016 year-to-date.</li><li>These three current leaders of the Sector have also had to embrace innovation and transformation for the last 25-30 years. The foundations of the trio track back to the 1980s.</li></ul>

The biggest SGX-listed stocks that respectively represent the hardware, software and semiconductors industries are Venture Corporation, Silverlake Axis and UMS Holdings. These three stocks have averaged a 19.2% total return in the 2016 year-to-date.These three current leaders of the Sector have also had to embrace innovation and transformation for the last 25-30 years. The foundations of the trio track back to the 1980s.

Innovative Transformation of Singapore's Technology Sector

<h2>Summary</h2><ul>
<li>
Raising the import tariffs on technology products: The new Trump government might raise the import tariffs on technology products to stop China dump their products. This should lead the part of the Apple assembly business back to the US. US solar and electric/self-driving automotive industry will be protected.  Consumers will see the cost increase of buying imported technology products, but the action might also drive China's counter-tariff trade war against the US in future. 
</li>
<li>
Cut taxes to…</li>
</ul>

Summary

Raising the import tariffs on technology products: The new Trump government might raise the import tariffs on technology products to stop China dump their products. This should lead the part of the Apple assembly business back to the US. US solar and electric/self-driving automotive industry will be protected.  Consumers will see the cost increase of buying imported technology products, but the action might also drive China's counter-tariff trade war against the US in future. 


Cut taxes to…


How Will Trump Shape up the Global Technology Industry in Next Four Years?

<h2>Executive summary</h2><ul>
<li>DRAM spot price much stronger than NAND's in 4Q16: After over 10% hike in DRAM/NAND spot/contract price in 3Q16, we see another strong upward spot price trend (over 30% q/q rebound) for DRAM in 4Q16 but a muted NAND spot price. </li>
<li>
After TSMC/Intel guided 1-2% q/q sales decline and AMD guided 18% q/q drop in 4Q16 coupled with likely over 30% q/q iPhone shipment decline in 1Q17, the seasonal softness might mitigate DRAM/NAND spot price rebound starting late 4Q16 and drive a…</li>
</ul>

Executive summary
DRAM spot price much stronger than NAND's in 4Q16: After over 10% hike in DRAM/NAND spot/contract price in 3Q16, we see another strong upward spot price trend (over 30% q/q rebound) for DRAM in 4Q16 but a muted NAND spot price. 

After TSMC/Intel guided 1-2% q/q sales decline and AMD guided 18% q/q drop in 4Q16 coupled with likely over 30% q/q iPhone shipment decline in 1Q17, the seasonal softness might mitigate DRAM/NAND spot price rebound starting late 4Q16 and drive a…


Reasons Why DRAM Price Might Be Better than NAND in 2017

<h2>Summary</h2><ul>
<li>Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Driven by iPhone 7, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/666" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a> Watch 2 production built, open market smartphones in emerging countries, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/191" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1">Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS)</a> Note 7 battery problem, our 3Q16 sales report takeaways suggest y/y strengths in foundry and fabless vendors and q/q strengths in Apple's touch panel/pressure sensor and OEM/EMS vendors.  </li>
<li>
On…</li>
</ul>

Summary
Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Driven by iPhone 7, Apple Inc (AAPL US) Watch 2 production built, open market smartphones in emerging countries, and Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS) Note 7 battery problem, our 3Q16 sales report takeaways suggest y/y strengths in foundry and fabless vendors and q/q strengths in Apple's touch panel/pressure sensor and OEM/EMS vendors.  

On…


Taiwan Semi/Tech 3Q Sales Takeaway as an Early Indicator for Global Tech Earnings

Taiwan

Delta Electronics Inc. manufactures power supplies and video display products. The Company's products include switching power supplies, telecom power systems, uninterrupted power supply (UPS), variable speed alternating current (AC) monitor drives, high resolution color monitors, and projectors.  Delta also manufactures magnetic and networking components.

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Delta Electronics (2308 TT)

N.A. Semiconductor Equipment BB Ratio to Four Year Low - Sign of a Downturn?

Summary BB ratio down to 0.91 for the first time in four-year and below parity in 11 months: North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor...

Andrew Lu

Innovative Transformation of Singapore's Technology Sector

The biggest SGX-listed stocks that respectively represent the hardware, software and semiconductors industries are Venture Corporation, Silverlake...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

How Will Trump Shape up the Global Technology Industry in Next Four Years?

Summary Raising the import tariffs on technology products: The new Trump government might raise the import tariffs on technology products to stop...

Andrew Lu

Reasons Why DRAM Price Might Be Better than NAND in 2017

Executive summary DRAM spot price much stronger than NAND's in 4Q16: After over 10% hike in DRAM/NAND spot/contract price in 3Q16, we see another...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Semi/Tech 3Q Sales Takeaway as an Early Indicator for Global Tech Earnings

Summary Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings...

Andrew Lu

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