Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Implied Volatility Trends: One-month implied volatility for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> has decreased but remains high at 48% (80th percentile), reflecting persistent market uncertainty.</li>
<li>
Skew and Term Structure Dynamics: The volatility term structure is slightly inverted, and a pronounced smile in the skew favors call and put spreads.</li>
<li>
Open Interest Distribution: Liquidity is concentrated in May, June, and December 2025 expiries, with a slight bias towards puts. Open interest peaking at out-of-the-money strikes for both calls and puts.</li>
</ul>



Implied Volatility Trends: One-month implied volatility for BYD (1211 HK) has decreased but remains high at 48% (80th percentile), reflecting persistent market uncertainty.

Skew and Term Structure Dynamics: The volatility term structure is slightly inverted, and a pronounced smile in the skew favors call and put spreads.

Open Interest Distribution: Liquidity is concentrated in May, June, and December 2025 expiries, with a slight bias towards puts. Open interest peaking at out-of-the-money strikes for both calls and puts.


BYD (1211 HK): Volatility Smile Signals Opportunity in Spreads

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> will release its Q1 2025 results on April 25. The company has issued a positive profit alert, projecting net income around RMB 8.5 - 10 billion.</li>
<li>Expected earnings per share ranging from RMB 2.91 to RMB 3.42, up from RMB 1.57 in the same period last year.</li>
<li>
Our model currently does not indicate the stock is overbought, but a surprise pullback is always possible around earnings releases, so we will discuss also support/buy zones.</li>
</ul>



BYD (1211 HK) will release its Q1 2025 results on April 25. The company has issued a positive profit alert, projecting net income around RMB 8.5 - 10 billion.
Expected earnings per share ranging from RMB 2.91 to RMB 3.42, up from RMB 1.57 in the same period last year.

Our model currently does not indicate the stock is overbought, but a surprise pullback is always possible around earnings releases, so we will discuss also support/buy zones.


BYD (1211 HK) Positioning Ahead of Q1 2025 Results

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The growth rate of sales volume slowed down in March 2025.</li>
<li>Geely’s sales volume reached 46% of BYD’s in 1Q25, compared to 23% in 2024.</li>
<li>We set a downside of 18% and a price target of HK$300 for the next twelve months.</li>
</ul>


The growth rate of sales volume slowed down in March 2025.
Geely’s sales volume reached 46% of BYD’s in 1Q25, compared to 23% in 2024.
We set a downside of 18% and a price target of HK$300 for the next twelve months.


BYD (1211 HK): Some Threats Before 1Q25 Result

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a> raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup- US$7bn Expiry with Scattered Shareholding and Lots of CCASS Movement

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 3rd.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Pop Mart International, China Mobile, Meituan, Alibaba, CMB, Xiaomi.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 3rd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Pop Mart International, China Mobile, Meituan, Alibaba, CMB, Xiaomi.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 3rd): Pop Mart Intl, China Mobile, Meituan, Alibaba, CMB

Hong Kong

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited operates as a passenger vehicles manufacturing company. The Company provides passenger vehicles development, manufacturing, sales, and other services. Geely Automobile Holdings also exports passenger vehicles.

Price Gauge
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Geely Auto (175 HK)

BYD (1211 HK): Volatility Smile Signals Opportunity in Spreads

Implied volatility for BYD (1211 HK) remains high at 48%, skew favors call and put spreads, and open interest is concentrated in specific expiries...

Gaudenz Schneider

BYD (1211 HK) Positioning Ahead of Q1 2025 Results

BYD (1211 HK) is about to release Q1 2025 results on April 25. Expected results are projected to be good, the stock is not overbought according to...

Nico Rosti

BYD (1211 HK): Some Threats Before 1Q25 Result

The growth rate of sales volume slowed down in March 2025. Geely’s sales volume reached 46% of BYD’s in 1Q25, compared to 23% in 2024. We set an...

Ming Lu

Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup- US$7bn Expiry with Scattered Shareholding and Lots of CCASS Movement

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 3rd): Pop Mart Intl, China Mobile, Meituan, Alibaba, CMB

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Pop Mart International, China Mobile, Meituan, Alibaba,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

BYD (1211 HK): Volatility Smile Signals Opportunity in Spreads

​Implied volatility for BYD (1211 HK) remains high at 48%, skew favors call and put spreads, and open interest is concentrated in specific expiries...

Gaudenz Schneider

BYD (1211 HK) Positioning Ahead of Q1 2025 Results

​BYD (1211 HK) is about to release Q1 2025 results on April 25. Expected results are projected to be good, the stock is not overbought according to...

Nico Rosti

BYD (1211 HK): Some Threats Before 1Q25 Result

The growth rate of sales volume slowed down in March 2025. Geely’s sales volume reached 46% of BYD’s in 1Q25, compared to 23% in 2024. We set an...

Ming Lu

Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup- US$7bn Expiry with Scattered Shareholding and Lots of CCASS Movement

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 3rd): Pop Mart Intl, China Mobile, Meituan, Alibaba, CMB

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Pop Mart International, China Mobile, Meituan, Alibaba,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Implied volatility for BYD (1211 HK) remains high at 48%, skew favors call and put spreads, and open interest is concentrated in specific expiries...

BYD (1211 HK) is about to release Q1 2025 results on April 25. Expected results are projected to be good, the stock is not overbought according to...