Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 26 September, the Korea Exchange announced that it is considering a <em><strong>"special rebalancing"</strong></em> of the Korea Value-Up Index in December 2024.</li>
<li>In our view, the probability of this special rebalancing occurring by the end of this year is high at about 85%+.</li>
<li>If there is a special rebalancing, KB Financial, Hana Financial, Samsung Life Insurance, SK Telecom, and KT could be considered the top candidates for inclusion. </li>
</ul>


On 26 September, the Korea Exchange announced that it is considering a "special rebalancing" of the Korea Value-Up Index in December 2024.
In our view, the probability of this special rebalancing occurring by the end of this year is high at about 85%+.
If there is a special rebalancing, KB Financial, Hana Financial, Samsung Life Insurance, SK Telecom, and KT could be considered the top candidates for inclusion. 


A Special Rebalancing Of Korea Value-Up Index Is Likely in December 2024

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>KRX updated the Value-Up Index with five new names: KB Financial, Hana Financial, KT Corp, SK Telecom, and Hyundai Mobis, with Mobis replacing JB Financial, surprising the market.</li>
<li>This is the first rebalancing, packed into one day, so expect notable price action. Reverse moves could also follow Thursday as pre-positioned trades unwind, so monitor price action closely.</li>
<li>Even after Thursday's rebalancing, half of the funds, especially from the National Pension Service, will flow into high-yield stocks, likely driving significant price moves through early next year.</li>
</ul>


KRX updated the Value-Up Index with five new names: KB Financial, Hana Financial, KT Corp, SK Telecom, and Hyundai Mobis, with Mobis replacing JB Financial, surprising the market.
This is the first rebalancing, packed into one day, so expect notable price action. Reverse moves could also follow Thursday as pre-positioned trades unwind, so monitor price action closely.
Even after Thursday's rebalancing, half of the funds, especially from the National Pension Service, will flow into high-yield stocks, likely driving significant price moves through early next year.


KRX Value-Up Index Rebalance Results and Estimated Passive Impact

<ul>
<li>Since Sep 24, 32 companies made Value-Up disclosures. After filtering, 17 remain, but KRX will keep inclusions tight. They’ll likely use PBR and ROE rankings for final selection.</li>
<li>We have 6 names—3 financials, 2 healthcare, 1 industrial. New Value-Up disclosures through Dec 6 could add more, but these 6 are the frontrunners for now.</li>
<li>KRX is likely to announce results by Dec 10-11. Start eyeing entry points 10 days prior, and if price action heats up early, consider pulling the trigger sooner.</li>
</ul>


Since Sep 24, 32 companies made Value-Up disclosures. After filtering, 17 remain, but KRX will keep inclusions tight. They’ll likely use PBR and ROE rankings for final selection.
We have 6 names—3 financials, 2 healthcare, 1 industrial. New Value-Up disclosures through Dec 6 could add more, but these 6 are the frontrunners for now.
KRX is likely to announce results by Dec 10-11. Start eyeing entry points 10 days prior, and if price action heats up early, consider pulling the trigger sooner.


KRX Value-Up Special Rebalance in December: Playbook & Screening Rundown

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Bank of Baroda are buys due to deep value with positive returns catalysts; the sell on premium-valued Nubank is due to fundamental return headwinds emerging</li>
<li>In the Japanese banks we identify Mizuho and Resona as key beneficiaries of higher benchmark rates going forward, alongside very attractive valuations and supported by strategic share portfolios</li>
<li>CME Group is our 2025 pick in global exchanges, as a flow monster with a very strong competitive position; PagSeguro is the deep value, contrarian pick in payments</li>
</ul>


GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Bank of Baroda are buys due to deep value with positive returns catalysts; the sell on premium-valued Nubank is due to fundamental return headwinds emerging
In the Japanese banks we identify Mizuho and Resona as key beneficiaries of higher benchmark rates going forward, alongside very attractive valuations and supported by strategic share portfolios
CME Group is our 2025 pick in global exchanges, as a flow monster with a very strong competitive position; PagSeguro is the deep value, contrarian pick in payments


EM and DM Financials - 2025 High Conviction Ideas

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Headline NPL figures at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kb-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:718:1" rel="noopener">KB Financial (105560 KS)</a> are already of major concern rising by 49% in the past year to 3Q24</li>
<li>Granular loan classification data is of even greater concern, where substandard loans are up from KRW1,153bn to KRW1,715bn over the same period</li>
<li>This more benign bucket of NPLs well overshadows loss loans, can migration can mean a substantial rise in credit costs</li>
</ul>


Headline NPL figures at KB Financial (105560 KS) are already of major concern rising by 49% in the past year to 3Q24
Granular loan classification data is of even greater concern, where substandard loans are up from KRW1,153bn to KRW1,715bn over the same period
This more benign bucket of NPLs well overshadows loss loans, can migration can mean a substantial rise in credit costs


KB Financial - NPLs from KRW2.1tr to KRW3.1tr YoY Vs +6% Loans. Substandard Loans: Big Issue

South Korea

Hana Financial Group Inc., in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on December 1, 2005, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies.

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Hana Financial (086790 KS)

A Special Rebalancing Of Korea Value-Up Index Is Likely in December 2024

KRX announced announced that a special rebalancing of 5 stocks to be included in the ‘Korea Value Up Index’ - KB Financial, Hana Financial, Hyundai...

Douglas Kim

KRX Value-Up Index Rebalance Results and Estimated Passive Impact

This post breaks down the latest special rebalancing results for the KRX Value-Up Index, along with the estimated passive impact.

Sanghyun Park

KRX Value-Up Special Rebalance in December: Playbook & Screening Rundown

KRX is likely to announce the Value Up Index results after tomorrow’s close. Add count’s basically a done deal—5 names in the bag. KB, Hana, and...

Sanghyun Park

EM and DM Financials - 2025 High Conviction Ideas

Buy GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Baroda, sell Nubank due to return headwinds. Japanese banks Mizuho and Resona benefit from higher benchmark...

Victor Galliano

KB Financial - NPLs from KRW2.1tr to KRW3.1tr YoY Vs +6% Loans. Substandard Loans: Big Issue

KB Financial shows relatively benign credit costs, but NPLs are surging, and its substandard loan growth is especially high. Risks remain for much...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A Special Rebalancing Of Korea Value-Up Index Is Likely in December 2024

KRX announced announced that a special rebalancing of 5 stocks to be included in the ‘Korea Value Up Index’ - KB Financial, Hana Financial, Hyundai...

Douglas Kim

KRX Value-Up Index Rebalance Results and Estimated Passive Impact

This post breaks down the latest special rebalancing results for the KRX Value-Up Index, along with the estimated passive impact.

Sanghyun Park

KRX Value-Up Special Rebalance in December: Playbook & Screening Rundown

KRX is likely to announce the Value Up Index results after tomorrow’s close. Add count’s basically a done deal—5 names in the bag. KB, Hana, and...

Sanghyun Park

EM and DM Financials - 2025 High Conviction Ideas

​Buy GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Baroda, sell Nubank due to return headwinds. Japanese banks Mizuho and Resona benefit from higher benchmark...

Victor Galliano

KB Financial - NPLs from KRW2.1tr to KRW3.1tr YoY Vs +6% Loans. Substandard Loans: Big Issue

KB Financial shows relatively benign credit costs, but NPLs are surging, and its substandard loan growth is especially high. Risks remain for much...

Daniel Tabbush

Buy GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Baroda, sell Nubank due to return headwinds. Japanese banks Mizuho and Resona benefit from higher benchmark...