Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>With strong momentum in broiler and swine prices and declining raw material costs supporting sustained margin improvement, we expect earnings to grow YoY or remain stable or increase QoQ (except for GFPT, where profit may decline QoQ due to a one-off gain in 1Q25).</li><li>We maintain a Neutral sector weighting and prefer swine-focused operators (BTG, CPF, and TFG), particularly those with operations in Thailand and the region.</li><li>Among them, we highlight TFG (Outperform; TP Bt5.85) as our top pick based on attractive valuation metrics. </li></ul>

With strong momentum in broiler and swine prices and declining raw material costs supporting sustained margin improvement, we expect earnings to grow YoY or remain stable or increase QoQ (except for GFPT, where profit may decline QoQ due to a one-off gain in 1Q25).We maintain a Neutral sector weighting and prefer swine-focused operators (BTG, CPF, and TFG), particularly those with operations in Thailand and the region.Among them, we highlight TFG (Outperform; TP Bt5.85) as our top pick based on attractive valuation metrics. 

Industry Update Agro & Food Industry - May 21, 2025

<ul><li>The 1Q25 earnings of 613 SET Index-listed companies (accounting for 98% of total market capitalization) totaled Bt263,097mn, up 56% QoQ but flat YoY.</li><li>Excluding the energy, petrochemical, and banking sectors, net profit stood at Bt130,359bn, rising 55% QoQ and 16% YoY.</li><li>Among the 142 stocks with Bloomberg consensus estimates, total net profit came in at Bt231,279mn, up 48% QoQ and 1% YoY, about 5% above the consensus expectations. </li></ul>

The 1Q25 earnings of 613 SET Index-listed companies (accounting for 98% of total market capitalization) totaled Bt263,097mn, up 56% QoQ but flat YoY.Excluding the energy, petrochemical, and banking sectors, net profit stood at Bt130,359bn, rising 55% QoQ and 16% YoY.Among the 142 stocks with Bloomberg consensus estimates, total net profit came in at Bt231,279mn, up 48% QoQ and 1% YoY, about 5% above the consensus expectations. 

Special Report: 1Q25 Performance Summary - MAY 16, 2025

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to trend higher, with resistance at 1,219 (75-day EMA) and 1,235 points and the support at 1,205 and 1,200 points.</li><li>The index is buoyed by progress in US-China trade talks over the past weekend, where both sides agreed to lower tariffs for 90 days — US tariffs on Chinese imports will drop to 30% (from 145%), while China will impose 10% tariffs on US goods (down from 125%).</li><li>In the short term, the market is still waiting for confirmation of where the peak of Wave 1 (out of 5 in the Elliott Wave uptrend) will occur, before entering a Wave 2 correction phase, typically retracing 50–61.8% of Wave 1. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to trend higher, with resistance at 1,219 (75-day EMA) and 1,235 points and the support at 1,205 and 1,200 points.The index is buoyed by progress in US-China trade talks over the past weekend, where both sides agreed to lower tariffs for 90 days — US tariffs on Chinese imports will drop to 30% (from 145%), while China will impose 10% tariffs on US goods (down from 125%).In the short term, the market is still waiting for confirmation of where the peak of Wave 1 (out of 5 in the Elliott Wave uptrend) will occur, before entering a Wave 2 correction phase, typically retracing 50–61.8% of Wave 1. 

KTX Zoom: US-China Trade War -  MAY 13, 2025

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,200/1,192 points and the resistance at 1,215/1,219 points (75-day EMA).</li><li>In the short term, the market is still waiting for confirmation of where the peak of Wave 1 (of the 5-wave upward structure in the Elliott Wave theory) will form before entering a correction phase.</li><li>Wave 2 is expected to retrace around 50–61.8% of Wave 1’s length. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,200/1,192 points and the resistance at 1,215/1,219 points (75-day EMA).In the short term, the market is still waiting for confirmation of where the peak of Wave 1 (of the 5-wave upward structure in the Elliott Wave theory) will form before entering a correction phase.Wave 2 is expected to retrace around 50–61.8% of Wave 1’s length. 

KTX Zoom: China’s Trade Balance - MAY 9, 2025

<ul><li>KTX expects the index to remain volatile, with the resistance levels at 1,220/1,250 points and the support at 1,170/1,150 points.</li><li>Positive factors include a return of buying in risk assets, particularly if Trump eases tariff measures — such as delaying tariffs on specific sectors like automobiles and semiconductors, and signaling a reduction in reciprocal tariffs for US trading partners making progress in negotiations (e.g., South Korea, Japan); and if China announces details of a new economic stimulus package.</li><li>On the domestic front, key factors to watch include the successful launch of the TESG Extra Fund, expected to generate Bt15-20bn in new capital inflows, and progress in Thailand’s negotiations on reciprocal tariffs with the US, along with the government’s gradual rollout of economic stimulus measures to offset trade war impacts (notably, the IMF has cut its 2025E global GDP growth forecast from 2.9% to 1.8%).</li></ul>

KTX expects the index to remain volatile, with the resistance levels at 1,220/1,250 points and the support at 1,170/1,150 points.Positive factors include a return of buying in risk assets, particularly if Trump eases tariff measures — such as delaying tariffs on specific sectors like automobiles and semiconductors, and signaling a reduction in reciprocal tariffs for US trading partners making progress in negotiations (e.g., South Korea, Japan); and if China announces details of a new economic stimulus package.On the domestic front, key factors to watch include the successful launch of the TESG Extra Fund, expected to generate Bt15-20bn in new capital inflows, and progress in Thailand’s negotiations on reciprocal tariffs with the US, along with the government’s gradual rollout of economic stimulus measures to offset trade war impacts (notably, the IMF has cut its 2025E global GDP growth forecast from 2.9% to 1.8%).

Thailand

Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited produces a wide range of food products. The Company's products include chicken, pork, shrimp, fish, eggs. and duck.

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CP FOODS (CPF TB)

Industry Update Agro & Food Industry - May 21, 2025

We maintain a Neutral sector weighting and prefer swine-focused operators (BTG, CPF, and TFG), particularly those with operations in Thailand and...

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report: 1Q25 Performance Summary - MAY 16, 2025

The 1Q25 earnings of 613 SET Index-listed companies (accounting for 98% of total market capitalization) totaled Bt263,097mn, up 56% QoQ but flat YoY.

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom: US-China Trade War - MAY 13, 2025

Technically, the SET Index is expected to trend higher, with resistance at 1,219 (75-day EMA) and 1,235 points and the support at 1,205 and 1,200...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom: China’s Trade Balance - MAY 9, 2025

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,200/1,192 points and the resistance at 1,215/1,219...

Krungthai XSpring

Monthly Report: May 2025

Positive factors include a return of buying in risk assets, particularly if Trump eases tariff measures — such as delaying tariffs on specific...

Krungthai XSpring

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