Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q424 revenues of $14.3 billion which was $500 million above the guided midpoint, down 7% YoY but up 7.5% QoQ.</li>
<li>Forecasted Q125 revenues of $12.2 billion at the midpoint, down $500 million YoY and down 15% QoQ</li>
<li>Transition to EUV abysmally slow, Falcon Shores cancelled, Clearwater Forest delayed, GMs will see <em>some</em> improvement or <em>mixed</em> improvement in 2026. </li>
</ul>


Q424 revenues of $14.3 billion which was $500 million above the guided midpoint, down 7% YoY but up 7.5% QoQ.
Forecasted Q125 revenues of $12.2 billion at the midpoint, down $500 million YoY and down 15% QoQ
Transition to EUV abysmally slow, Falcon Shores cancelled, Clearwater Forest delayed, GMs will see some improvement or mixed improvement in 2026. 


Intel Q424. It's A Journey, Not A Destination

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Market looks happy about Intel 4Q result / 1Q guidance. There’s actually a fait bit of poor news for 2025. But the tone / narrative is a lot better.  </li>
<li>2025: Product margins under pressure, Foundry margins better if 18A EUV delivers. Server share loss to be fixed. No GPU. Capex reduced to US$20bn.</li>
<li>How much do you pay for “we began the process of resizing our expense structure to support more modest long-term growth”. The stock trades at 13x 2025, 11x 2026 EPS. </li>
</ul>


Market looks happy about Intel 4Q result / 1Q guidance. There’s actually a fait bit of poor news for 2025. But the tone / narrative is a lot better.  
2025: Product margins under pressure, Foundry margins better if 18A EUV delivers. Server share loss to be fixed. No GPU. Capex reduced to US$20bn.
How much do you pay for “we began the process of resizing our expense structure to support more modest long-term growth”. The stock trades at 13x 2025, 11x 2026 EPS. 


Intel: A Refreshing Direct Tone from New Management that Doesn’t Deny Issues

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Intel Corporation, once the world’s dominant chipmaker, finds itself at a critical juncture, sparking speculation about its future.</li><li>Following a 9.5% surge in its stock price after rumors of a potential acquisition surfaced, the company has been thrust into the spotlight.</li><li>The speculation originated from a report by SemiAccurate, which hinted at an unnamed company with the financial clout to acquire Intel in its entirety.</li></ul>

Intel Corporation, once the world’s dominant chipmaker, finds itself at a critical juncture, sparking speculation about its future.Following a 9.5% surge in its stock price after rumors of a potential acquisition surfaced, the company has been thrust into the spotlight.The speculation originated from a report by SemiAccurate, which hinted at an unnamed company with the financial clout to acquire Intel in its entirety.

Intel’s Acquisition Rumors: Is It A Bargain For Qualcomm, Arm Holdings & Other Tech Giants?

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>Considering of current financial outcome of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>, we cannot but favor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US).</a>
</li>
<li>Currently, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)</a> has a more favorable competitive landscape compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>.</li>
<li>The competition in PC CPU emphasizes not only performance but also heat dissipation and other techniques related to supply management.    </li>
</ul>


Considering of current financial outcome of Intel Corp (INTC US), we cannot but favor Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US).

Currently, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) has a more favorable competitive landscape compared to Intel Corp (INTC US).
The competition in PC CPU emphasizes not only performance but also heat dissipation and other techniques related to supply management.    


Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (II)

<ul>
<li>Intel is pinning much hope on the success of the AIPC, a venture in which they are tied at the hip with Microsoft, which calls it a CoPilot+ PC</li>
<li>The AIPC/CoPilot+ PC concept is struggling to gain traction. They will sell in volume, but only because buyers will have limited alternatives available. Ultimately, we see AIPCs cannibalising non-AIPCs</li>
<li>Intel's performance was underwhelming to say the least, but at the same time, not in the least bit surprising. Earnings coming on January 23. </li>
</ul>


Intel is pinning much hope on the success of the AIPC, a venture in which they are tied at the hip with Microsoft, which calls it a CoPilot+ PC
The AIPC/CoPilot+ PC concept is struggling to gain traction. They will sell in volume, but only because buyers will have limited alternatives available. Ultimately, we see AIPCs cannibalising non-AIPCs
Intel's performance was underwhelming to say the least, but at the same time, not in the least bit surprising. Earnings coming on January 23. 


Intel @ CES 2025. Doubling Down On The AIPC & Other Fantastical Tales

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Intel Q424. It's A Journey, Not A Destination

Transition to EUV abysmally slow, Falcon Shores cancelled, Clearwater Forest delayed, GMs will see some improvement or mixed improvement in 2026....

William Keating

Intel: A Refreshing Direct Tone from New Management that Doesn’t Deny Issues

Intel's 4Q results beat Consensus but 1Q25 guidance is weak. Mixed messages on 2025: pressure on product margins, multiple roadmap problems...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel’s Acquisition Rumors: Is It A Bargain For Qualcomm, Arm Holdings & Other Tech Giants?

Intel Corporation, once the world’s dominant chipmaker, finds itself at a critical juncture, sparking speculation about its future. Following a...

Baptista Research

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (II)

Intel Corp's financial outcome favors Advanced Micro Devices in the competition for PC CPU market due to a more favorable competitive landscape.

Patrick Liao

Intel @ CES 2025. Doubling Down On The AIPC & Other Fantastical Tales

AIPC/CoPilot+ PC concept is struggling to gain traction. They will sell in volume, but only because buyers will have limited alternatives...

William Keating

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Intel Q424. It's A Journey, Not A Destination

Transition to EUV abysmally slow, Falcon Shores cancelled, Clearwater Forest delayed, GMs will see some improvement or mixed improvement in 2026....

William Keating

Intel: A Refreshing Direct Tone from New Management that Doesn’t Deny Issues

Intel's 4Q results beat Consensus but 1Q25 guidance is weak. Mixed messages on 2025: pressure on product margins, multiple roadmap problems...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel’s Acquisition Rumors: Is It A Bargain For Qualcomm, Arm Holdings & Other Tech Giants?

Intel Corporation, once the world’s dominant chipmaker, finds itself at a critical juncture, sparking speculation about its future. Following a...

Baptista Research

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (II)

​Intel Corp's financial outcome favors Advanced Micro Devices in the competition for PC CPU market due to a more favorable competitive landscape.

Patrick Liao

Intel @ CES 2025. Doubling Down On The AIPC & Other Fantastical Tales

AIPC/CoPilot+ PC concept is struggling to gain traction. They will sell in volume, but only because buyers will have limited alternatives...

William Keating

Intel Corp's financial outcome favors Advanced Micro Devices in the competition for PC CPU market due to a more favorable competitive landscape.