Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With one trading day left in the review period, we expect one change with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-securities-co-4f5d644c-0051-426f-9706-eaa74b0ba280" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22738:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yankuang-energy-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:384:1" rel="noopener">Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK)</a> in December.</li>
<li>Capping will result in selling for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Short interest has jumped on both stocks, but the increase is far higher in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-securities-co-4f5d644c-0051-426f-9706-eaa74b0ba280" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22738:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK)</a> compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yankuang-energy-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:384:1" rel="noopener">Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


With one trading day left in the review period, we expect one change with China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK) replacing Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK) in December.
Capping will result in selling for Meituan (3690 HK) and buying in Tencent (700 HK) and Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK). 
Short interest has jumped on both stocks, but the increase is far higher in China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK) compared to Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK). 


FXI Rebalance Preview: One Change in December as Shorts Spike

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tencent reported C3Q24 revenue, IFRS operating profit, and IFRS net income in-line, in-line, 11% vs. our estimates and in-line, in-line, 18% vs. consensus. </li>
<li>The bright spot is fintech transaction volume grew 10% YoY showing gain in market share, which coupled with rebound in consumption since October should rive recovery.</li>
<li>We raise TP by 2% to HK$518. Tencent is still our TOP PICK in an uncertain geopolitical environment with an upswing fundamental story.</li>
</ul>


Tencent reported C3Q24 revenue, IFRS operating profit, and IFRS net income in-line, in-line, 11% vs. our estimates and in-line, in-line, 18% vs. consensus. 
The bright spot is fintech transaction volume grew 10% YoY showing gain in market share, which coupled with rebound in consumption since October should rive recovery.
We raise TP by 2% to HK$518. Tencent is still our TOP PICK in an uncertain geopolitical environment with an upswing fundamental story.


[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$518) TP Change]: C3Q24 Review: Performance In-Line with Catalysts

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Nov 15th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Cosco Shipping (1919 HK), Sinopec (386 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Cosco Shipping (1919 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Nov 15th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Cosco Shipping (1919 HK), Sinopec (386 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Cosco Shipping (1919 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Nov 15th): AIA, Cosco Shipping, Sinopec

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

<ul>
<li>It has been an eventful week for Naspers and Prosus - Tencent reported 3Q FY24 results yesterday after the HK close and Swiggy listed on the NSE and BSE.</li>
<li>Prosus sold shares in Swiggy worth $500m and retains an interest of 25% (fully diluted basis).</li>
<li>Since 2017, Naspers and Prosus invested $1.3bn to build a 31% stake. The group have created $2bn of value for shareholders following the listing.</li>
</ul>


It has been an eventful week for Naspers and Prosus - Tencent reported 3Q FY24 results yesterday after the HK close and Swiggy listed on the NSE and BSE.
Prosus sold shares in Swiggy worth $500m and retains an interest of 25% (fully diluted basis).
Since 2017, Naspers and Prosus invested $1.3bn to build a 31% stake. The group have created $2bn of value for shareholders following the listing.


NPN X PRX: Swiggy Lists, Tencent 3Q FY24 Results, Market Awaits H1 FY25 Results and Strategy Update

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>3690 HK/ JD US: Yonghui Superstores and Meituan Begin Cooperation.（+/-）</li>
<li>700 HK: Tencent Announces New Mobile Game &lt;Monster Hunter: Traveler&gt; in Collaboration with CAPCOM (+)</li>
<li>700 HK: Ex-CAPCOM Renowned Game Producer Joins Tencent’s Lightspeed Japan Studio (+)</li>
</ul>


3690 HK/ JD US: Yonghui Superstores and Meituan Begin Cooperation.（+/-）
700 HK: Tencent Announces New Mobile Game &lt;Monster Hunter: Traveler&gt; in Collaboration with CAPCOM (+)
700 HK: Ex-CAPCOM Renowned Game Producer Joins Tencent’s Lightspeed Japan Studio (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/JD US/700 HK/BIDU US/BABA US/PDD US

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

FXI Rebalance Preview: One Change in December as Shorts Spike

China Merchants Sec could replace Yankuang Energy in the ETF in Dec. There is over 1x ADV to sell in Yankuang. Capping will lead to selling in...

Brian Freitas

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$518) TP Change]: C3Q24 Review: Performance In-Line with Catalysts

Tencent's Q3 results meet expectations, with strong growth in fintech and consumption driving recovery. TP raised to HK$518, still a top pick in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Nov 15th): AIA, Cosco Shipping, Sinopec

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were AIA (1299 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

NPN X PRX: Swiggy Lists, Tencent 3Q FY24 Results, Market Awaits H1 FY25 Results and Strategy Update

Comments made by Bloisi in a recent interview with the Financial Times have weighed on the discount, reiterating whether it was the right approach...

DMA

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/JD US/700 HK/BIDU US/BABA US/PDD US

Yonghui Superstores and Meituan partner up, Tencent announces new mobile game collaboration with CAPCOM and hires ex-CAPCOM producer for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

FXI Rebalance Preview: One Change in December as Shorts Spike

China Merchants Sec could replace Yankuang Energy in the ETF in Dec. There is over 1x ADV to sell in Yankuang. Capping will lead to selling in...

Brian Freitas

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$518) TP Change]: C3Q24 Review: Performance In-Line with Catalysts

​Tencent's Q3 results meet expectations, with strong growth in fintech and consumption driving recovery. TP raised to HK$518, still a top pick in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Nov 15th): AIA, Cosco Shipping, Sinopec

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were AIA (1299 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

NPN X PRX: Swiggy Lists, Tencent 3Q FY24 Results, Market Awaits H1 FY25 Results and Strategy Update

Comments made by Bloisi in a recent interview with the Financial Times have weighed on the discount, reiterating whether it was the right approach...

DMA

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/JD US/700 HK/BIDU US/BABA US/PDD US

​Yonghui Superstores and Meituan partner up, Tencent announces new mobile game collaboration with CAPCOM and hires ex-CAPCOM producer for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tencent's Q3 results meet expectations, with strong growth in fintech and consumption driving recovery. TP raised to HK$518, still a top pick in...

Yonghui Superstores and Meituan partner up, Tencent announces new mobile game collaboration with CAPCOM and hires ex-CAPCOM producer for...