Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NEV retail deliveries grew by 41% in 2024, higher than 36% in 2023.</li>
<li>The US Department of Defense designated Tencent as a Chinese Military Company.</li>
<li>Smart Share Global plans to go private, as the company has no exclusive advantage.</li>
</ul>


NEV retail deliveries grew by 41% in 2024, higher than 36% in 2023.
The US Department of Defense designated Tencent as a Chinese Military Company.
Smart Share Global plans to go private, as the company has no exclusive advantage.


China Consumption Weekly (13 Jan 2025): NEV 2024, Tencent in Blacklist, Energy Monster Going Private

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Investors haven’t lost their enthusiasm for Tencent. The put/call ratio is a long way from indicating panic.</li>
<li>Implied vols have risen but are far from panic levels with 1M implied at it's 39th percentile over the past year and 15th percentile since 2001.</li>
<li>Skew has risen significantly for out-of-the-money Puts as spot has moved into a range where there is higher Put positioning vs Call positioning. </li>
</ul>


Investors haven’t lost their enthusiasm for Tencent. The put/call ratio is a long way from indicating panic.
Implied vols have risen but are far from panic levels with 1M implied at it's 39th percentile over the past year and 15th percentile since 2001.
Skew has risen significantly for out-of-the-money Puts as spot has moved into a range where there is higher Put positioning vs Call positioning. 


EQD | Tencent – Call Buyers Haven’t Lost That Loving Feeling

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following two periods of profitability, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> at the close on 5 December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> is also an add to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
</ul>


Following two periods of profitability, Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 December.

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is also an add to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for Alibaba (9988 HK) at the December rebalance.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Tencent</strong> (700 HK)</a> shares fell 7.3% on 7 January, after being designated a Chinese Military Company by the U.S. Department of Defense, prompting volatility to spike.</li>
<li>Given the potential for further downside, or a relief rally, significant price movements and high volatility are to be expected.</li>
<li>A long straddle is detailed to capitalize on the anticipated volatility in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> .</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) shares fell 7.3% on 7 January, after being designated a Chinese Military Company by the U.S. Department of Defense, prompting volatility to spike.
Given the potential for further downside, or a relief rally, significant price movements and high volatility are to be expected.
A long straddle is detailed to capitalize on the anticipated volatility in Tencent (700 HK) .


EQD | Tencent (700 HK) Option Strategy for Navigating a Volatile Market

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The U.S. Department of Defense announced that it has added numerous Chinese companies including Tencent and CATL as companies that work with China's military.</li>
<li>This is likely to negatively impact Tencent and CATL's prices in the next several weeks but positively impact on some of the major Korean rechargeable battery and gaming stocks.</li>
<li>The higher probability scenario at this point is for Tencent and CATL to be officially included in the Chinese Military Industrial Complex list in the coming weeks. </li>
</ul>


The U.S. Department of Defense announced that it has added numerous Chinese companies including Tencent and CATL as companies that work with China's military.
This is likely to negatively impact Tencent and CATL's prices in the next several weeks but positively impact on some of the major Korean rechargeable battery and gaming stocks.
The higher probability scenario at this point is for Tencent and CATL to be officially included in the Chinese Military Industrial Complex list in the coming weeks. 


US Defense Dept Designates Tencent and CATL as Military Companies - Impact on Korean Competitors

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

China Consumption Weekly (13 Jan 2025): NEV 2024, Tencent in Blacklist, Energy Monster Going Private

NEV retail deliveries grew by 41% in 2024, higher than 36% in 2023. US Department of Defense designated Tencent as a Chinese Military Company....

Ming Lu

EQD | Tencent – Call Buyers Haven’t Lost That Loving Feeling

Investors remain optimistic about Tencent as put/call ratio shows no signs of panic. Implied vols have increased but are still below panic levels,...

John Ley

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Innovent Bio is an add in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn. Innovent Bio has also been added to the HSCEI,...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Tencent (700 HK) Option Strategy for Navigating a Volatile Market

Tencent shares drop 7.3% after being labeled a Chinese Military Company by the US. This option strategy positions traders for further price swings.

Gaudenz Schneider

US Defense Dept Designates Tencent and CATL as Military Companies - Impact on Korean Competitors

The U.S. Department of Defense announced that it has added numerous Chinese companies including Tencent and CATL as companies that work with...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Consumption Weekly (13 Jan 2025): NEV 2024, Tencent in Blacklist, Energy Monster Going Private

NEV retail deliveries grew by 41% in 2024, higher than 36% in 2023. US Department of Defense designated Tencent as a Chinese Military Company....

Ming Lu

EQD | Tencent – Call Buyers Haven’t Lost That Loving Feeling

​Investors remain optimistic about Tencent as put/call ratio shows no signs of panic. Implied vols have increased but are still below panic levels,...

John Ley

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Innovent Bio is an add in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn. Innovent Bio has also been added to the HSCEI,...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Tencent (700 HK) Option Strategy for Navigating a Volatile Market

​Tencent shares drop 7.3% after being labeled a Chinese Military Company by the US. This option strategy positions traders for further price swings.

Gaudenz Schneider

US Defense Dept Designates Tencent and CATL as Military Companies - Impact on Korean Competitors

The U.S. Department of Defense announced that it has added numerous Chinese companies including Tencent and CATL as companies that work with...

Douglas Kim

Investors remain optimistic about Tencent as put/call ratio shows no signs of panic. Implied vols have increased but are still below panic levels,...

Tencent shares drop 7.3% after being labeled a Chinese Military Company by the US. This option strategy positions traders for further price swings.