'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/496/original/2020-06-30_14-16-44.png?1593494217" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143496"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>THE CASH CONVERSION CYCLE</strong> - Net Working Capital is a measure of how efficiently a company manages its short-term assets and liabilities to generate cash and is also known as the Cash Conversion Cycle. In practice, Net Working Capital is scaled by the number of days of Revenue or Cost of Goods Sold that are 'tied' up in three components - Receivables, Inventory, and Payables.</p>
<p><strong>Net Working Capital Days</strong> varies by industry and the lower the number, the better. Amounts over 210 days are excessive, and a sign of business stress.  Net Working Capital is defined as:-</p>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>+ Receivables/Revenue </strong>- the average number of days required to collect on sales. Businesses usually extend a degree of credit to non-cash customers.  Receivables Days over 100 are excessive.</li>
<li>
<strong>+ Inventory/Cost of Goods Sold -</strong> the average number of days it takes to sell out of Inventory. Amounts vary widely by industry but days over 210 are excessive.</li>
<li>- <strong>Payables/Cost of Goods Sold -</strong>the average number of days the company takes to settle transactions with suppliers. By extending nominally interest-free credit, suppliers provide operating leverage to a business. A larger negative number is better, but days less than -100 are excessive.</li>
</ul>
<p>The relationship between Receivables and Payables should also be considered particularly where the company is giving more generous credit terms to its customers than it receives from its suppliers. The Cash Conversion Cycle for the aggregate of all non-financial currently-listed Japanese companies has averaged 77 days over the last thirty years. However, over the previous twelve months., a fourteen-day rise in Inventory Days during the last four years has pushed Net Working Capital Days to 93.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/529/original/2020-06-30_15-09-41.png?1593497395" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143529"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/530/original/2020-06-30_15-10-32.png?1593497471" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143530"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<div class="content-caption"></div>
<p><strong>NET WORKING CAPITAL DAYS AS A STRESS TEST</strong> - The correlation between Net Working Capital Days and relative performance varies by company and by Sectors. The examples above show how signals can be heeded -  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7117:1" rel="noopener">Nikon (7731 JP)</a>, or ignored - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20866:1" rel="noopener">SMC (6273 JP)</a> since 2018. (For more on SMC working capital issues, please see my colleague <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/scott-foster" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1134" rel="noopener">Scott Foster</a>'s Insight of last year - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smc-6273-jp-getting-in-line-with-reality" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30081" rel="noopener">SMC (6273 JP): Getting in Line with Reality</a>).   </p>
<p>For this Insight, we have limited our review to larger capitalisation manufacturing companies. In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall cover the outliers at both ends of <strong>Receivables Days</strong>, <strong>Inventory Days</strong>, <strong>Payables Days</strong>, and finally <strong>Net Working Capital Days</strong>.</p>


Source • Japan Analytics
THE CASH CONVERSION CYCLE - Net Working Capital is a measure of how efficiently a company manages its short-term assets and liabilities to generate cash and is also known as the Cash Conversion Cycle. In practice, Net Working Capital is scaled by the number of days of Revenue or Cost of Goods Sold that are 'tied' up in three components - Receivables, Inventory, and Payables.
Net Working Capital Days varies by industry and the lower the number, the better. Amounts over 210 days are excessive, and a sign of business stress.  Net Working Capital is defined as:-


+ Receivables/Revenue - the average number of days required to collect on sales. Businesses usually extend a degree of credit to non-cash customers.  Receivables Days over 100 are excessive.

+ Inventory/Cost of Goods Sold - the average number of days it takes to sell out of Inventory. Amounts vary widely by industry but days over 210 are excessive.
- Payables/Cost of Goods Sold -the average number of days the company takes to settle transactions with suppliers. By extending nominally interest-free credit, suppliers provide operating leverage to a business. A larger negative number is better, but days less than -100 are excessive.

The relationship between Receivables and Payables should also be considered particularly where the company is giving more generous credit terms to its customers than it receives from its suppliers. The Cash Conversion Cycle for the aggregate of all non-financial currently-listed Japanese companies has averaged 77 days over the last thirty years. However, over the previous twelve months., a fourteen-day rise in Inventory Days during the last four years has pushed Net Working Capital Days to 93.


Source • Japan Analytics

NET WORKING CAPITAL DAYS AS A STRESS TEST - The correlation between Net Working Capital Days and relative performance varies by company and by Sectors. The examples above show how signals can be heeded -  Nikon (7731 JP), or ignored - SMC (6273 JP) since 2018. (For more on SMC working capital issues, please see my colleague Scott Foster's Insight of last year - SMC (6273 JP): Getting in Line with Reality).   
For this Insight, we have limited our review to larger capitalisation manufacturing companies. In the DETAIL section below, we shall cover the outliers at both ends of Receivables Days, Inventory Days, Payables Days, and finally Net Working Capital Days.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Stress Tests Part 5: Net Working Capital Outliers

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-real-estate-investment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26031:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Real Estate Investment (1997 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:51:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Holdings (4 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cspc-pharmaceutical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:229:1" rel="noopener">CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing (981 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan Dianping (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in Real Estate, Health Care and Consumer Staples, and were covered in Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Information Technology.</p></div><div><p>Japan saw an increase in shorts on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kubota-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12926:1" rel="noopener">Kubota Corp (6326 JP)</a> and a reduction in shorts on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-alpine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12001:1" rel="noopener">Alps Alpine (6770 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leopalace21-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1" rel="noopener">Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased in all sectors led by Consumer Staples, Industrials, Information Technology and Energy.</p></div><div><p>Short Interest in Korea increased in most industry groups led by Technology Hardware, Media &amp; Entertainment, Semiconductors and Materials.</p></div><div><p>Shorts in Taiwan were covered in Semiconductors, Technology Hardware, Capital Goods, Consumer Durables and Materials.</p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Wharf Real Estate Investment (1997 HK), Wharf Holdings (4 HK), CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) and Sunny Optical (2382 HK) while there was short covering on Semiconductor Manufacturing (981 HK), Meituan Dianping (3690 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) and Alibaba Group (9988 HK). Shorts increased in Real Estate, Health Care and Consumer Staples, and were covered in Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Information Technology.Japan saw an increase in shorts on Kirin Holdings (2503 JP), Canon Inc (7751 JP), Japan Tobacco (2914 JP) and Kubota Corp (6326 JP) and a reduction in shorts on Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP), Advantest Corp (6857 JP), Alps Alpine (6770 JP) and Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased in all sectors led by Consumer Staples, Industrials, Information Technology and Energy.Short Interest in Korea increased in most industry groups led by Technology Hardware, Media &amp; Entertainment, Semiconductors and Materials.Shorts in Taiwan were covered in Semiconductors, Technology Hardware, Capital Goods, Consumer Durables and Materials.

Asia Short Interest Weekly - Big Jump in Japan Shorts

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

<p>The spread of COVID-19, one of the greatest risks to humankind, has forced governments to enforce strict social distancing measures and lock down cities and countries. Businesses across many industries have been shut due to this crisis, as various areas such as travel, tourism, and international trade have been severely disrupted.</p>
<p>On 14<sup>th</sup> April 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that all the G7 nations had already entered or were entering into a recession. There are reasons to believe the ongoing recession is likely to be worse and more long-lasting than the 2007-2009 recession. The COVID-19- related health crisis is still underway, and it could take years to develop a vaccine. We believe that it is impossible for economics to predict an end to this recession until countries contain the COVID-19 health crisis. Recessions are detrimental to most companies, and they are deadly for some companies. Therefore, in these uncertain times it is rather important to rank the companies based on their bankruptcy risk.</p>
<p>In this insight we try to develop a screening system to identify the potential bankruptcy candidates and the most resilient companies.</p>

The spread of COVID-19, one of the greatest risks to humankind, has forced governments to enforce strict social distancing measures and lock down cities and countries. Businesses across many industries have been shut due to this crisis, as various areas such as travel, tourism, and international trade have been severely disrupted.
On 14th April 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that all the G7 nations had already entered or were entering into a recession. There are reasons to believe the ongoing recession is likely to be worse and more long-lasting than the 2007-2009 recession. The COVID-19- related health crisis is still underway, and it could take years to develop a vaccine. We believe that it is impossible for economics to predict an end to this recession until countries contain the COVID-19 health crisis. Recessions are detrimental to most companies, and they are deadly for some companies. Therefore, in these uncertain times it is rather important to rank the companies based on their bankruptcy risk.
In this insight we try to develop a screening system to identify the potential bankruptcy candidates and the most resilient companies.

Fragility and Resilience Screening System

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<p>The US Department of Commerce has revised its <em><strong>Foreign-Produced Direct Product Rule</strong></em> and the <em><strong>Entity List</strong></em> in an attempt to further undermine Huawei.  This Smartkarma Insight looks at that rule to try and understand its likely implications to the broader semiconductor market over the longer term.  Our opinion is that US firms will be damaged as much as will Huawei.</p>

The US Department of Commerce has revised its Foreign-Produced Direct Product Rule and the Entity List in an attempt to further undermine Huawei.  This Smartkarma Insight looks at that rule to try and understand its likely implications to the broader semiconductor market over the longer term.  Our opinion is that US firms will be damaged as much as will Huawei.

US-Huawei Battle Likely to Harm US Business

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Advantest reported a 24% QoQ increase in new orders received in 4Q of FY Mar-20 led by memory test systems, test services and M&amp;A. Orders for smartphone processor and high performance computing SoC test systems were also up.</li>
<li>But management is guiding for a 32% sequential decline in orders this quarter, more than erasing that gain. And visibility is so poor that no further guidance has been provided.</li>
<li>The shares have rebounded smartly over the past month, but further weakness cannot be ruled out. Consolidation seems likely.</li>
</ul>


Advantest reported a 24% QoQ increase in new orders received in 4Q of FY Mar-20 led by memory test systems, test services and M&amp;A. Orders for smartphone processor and high performance computing SoC test systems were also up.
But management is guiding for a 32% sequential decline in orders this quarter, more than erasing that gain. And visibility is so poor that no further guidance has been provided.
The shares have rebounded smartly over the past month, but further weakness cannot be ruled out. Consolidation seems likely.


Advantest (6857 JP): Strong 4Q Orders, Weak 1Q Guidance, No Further Visibility

Japan

ADVANTEST CORPORATION produces semiconductor testing devices and electronic measuring instruments.  The Company's products include large-scale integration (LSI) test systems, memory test systems, dynamic test handlers, network analyzers, electronic meters, optical testing devices, and signal sources.

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Advantest Corp (6857 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Stress Tests Part 5: Net Working Capital Outliers

THE CASH CONVERSION CYCLE - Net Working Capital is a measure of how efficiently a company manages its short-term assets and liabilities to...

Campbell Gunn

Asia Short Interest Weekly - Big Jump in Japan Shorts

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong...

Brian Freitas

Fragility and Resilience Screening System

The spread of COVID-19, one of the greatest risks to humankind, has forced governments to enforce strict social distancing measures and lock down...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

US-Huawei Battle Likely to Harm US Business

The US Department of Commerce has revised its Foreign-Produced Direct Product Rule and the Entity List in an attempt to further undermine Huawei. ...

Jim Handy

Advantest (6857 JP): Strong 4Q Orders, Weak 1Q Guidance, No Further Visibility

Advantest reported a 24% QoQ increase in new orders received in 4Q of FY Mar-20 led by memory test systems, test services and M&A. Orders for...

Scott Foster

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