Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

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<h2><strong>Executive summary</strong></h2>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20934" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> (“TSL”)’s FY18 revenue improved on rising production volume in Indian operations which accounted for 46% of overall revenue in FY18 but contributed around 79% of overall EBITDA. (See FY18 financial update section). Net proceeds of INR91bn from the rights issue in March 2018, resulted in improvement in the debt-to-EBITDA multiple to 4.5x from 4.9x a year ago. We note that the ratio remains a lot higher than Moody’s median debt-to-EBITDA multiple of…</p>


Executive summary

Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) (“TSL”)’s FY18 revenue improved on rising production volume in Indian operations which accounted for 46% of overall revenue in FY18 but contributed around 79% of overall EBITDA. (See FY18 financial update section). Net proceeds of INR91bn from the rights issue in March 2018, resulted in improvement in the debt-to-EBITDA multiple to 4.5x from 4.9x a year ago. We note that the ratio remains a lot higher than Moody’s median debt-to-EBITDA multiple of…

<div class="content-highlight"><h2><strong>Executive summary</strong></h2></div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18561" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a> (JSW) reported strong revenue during 4Q’FY18 (ended in March) with an improving EBITDA margin on rising steel prices, resilient domestic demand, and lower iron ore prices. The improving EBITDA led us to revise our debt to EBITDA multiple expectation to a maximum of 3.8x in the next 3 years (down from 4.0x in our our previous report <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jsw-steel-a-race-of-ebitda-against-debt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:17048">JSW Steel: A Race of EBITDA Against Debt</a> dated 22 February 2018). The investment in  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2423" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2423:1">Monnet Ispat &amp; Energy Ltd (MISP IN)</a>…</p>

Executive summaryJSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) (JSW) reported strong revenue during 4Q’FY18 (ended in March) with an improving EBITDA margin on rising steel prices, resilient domestic demand, and lower iron ore prices. The improving EBITDA led us to revise our debt to EBITDA multiple expectation to a maximum of 3.8x in the next 3 years (down from 4.0x in our our previous report JSW Steel: A Race of EBITDA Against Debt dated 22 February 2018). The investment in  Monnet Ispat &amp; Energy Ltd (MISP IN)…

JSW Steel: Upward Capex Revision Does Not Matter

Equity Analyst

Gihan Bandara

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>JSW Steel released its earnings for FY03/18 and 4QFY03/18 on 16 May beating both our forecasts and consensus estimates in terms of revenue and net profit. It generated revenue of INR700bn (+18.4% YoY) and OP of INR115.7bn (+22.6% YoY) mainly because of an increase in production, market share and favorable raw material and steel prices. During the period, hot rolled steel prices increased from USD 600 per ton levels to USD 900 per ton levels and iron ore prices decreased by almost 23% from USD 88…</p>

JSW Steel released its earnings for FY03/18 and 4QFY03/18 on 16 May beating both our forecasts and consensus estimates in terms of revenue and net profit. It generated revenue of INR700bn (+18.4% YoY) and OP of INR115.7bn (+22.6% YoY) mainly because of an increase in production, market share and favorable raw material and steel prices. During the period, hot rolled steel prices increased from USD 600 per ton levels to USD 900 per ton levels and iron ore prices decreased by almost 23% from USD 88…

JSW Steel Earnings Release FY03/18 – Three All-Time Highs in a Row

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Recent USD strength has weighed on EM’s relative performance. Given (1) strength in commodity prices (sans precious metals), (2) the potential for some backing-and-filling of the USD, and (3) MSCI EM price and relative strength support levels continuing to hold, we see recent weakness as a buying opportunity.  The MSCI BRIC index has reasserted its leadership status. In addition to China, fellow BRIC countries <strong>Brazil </strong>and <strong>India </strong>exhibit attractive setups, while <strong>Chile’s</strong><strong>IPSA</strong> also presents opportunities. Today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations across the EM universe, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.</p>

Recent USD strength has weighed on EM’s relative performance. Given (1) strength in commodity prices (sans precious metals), (2) the potential for some backing-and-filling of the USD, and (3) MSCI EM price and relative strength support levels continuing to hold, we see recent weakness as a buying opportunity.  The MSCI BRIC index has reasserted its leadership status. In addition to China, fellow BRIC countries Brazil and India exhibit attractive setups, while Chile’sIPSA also presents opportunities. Today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations across the EM universe, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

Emerging Markets Strategy: Attractive Setups in China, Brazil, India, and Chile

<p>We believe the secular mobile payments theme has room to run, and we expect related stocks to continue outperforming... <em>see pages 2-4 for actionable stocks. </em>We reiterate our overweight metals and mining.. <em>see pages 5 and 9-12 for actionable stocks. </em>Though lagging across many global markets, Utilities are particularly attractive in Europe and Japan<em>...</em> <em>see pages 6 and 13-17 for actionable stocks.</em></p>

We believe the secular mobile payments theme has room to run, and we expect related stocks to continue outperforming... see pages 2-4 for actionable stocks. We reiterate our overweight metals and mining.. see pages 5 and 9-12 for actionable stocks. Though lagging across many global markets, Utilities are particularly attractive in Europe and Japan... see pages 6 and 13-17 for actionable stocks.

Global Strategy: Opportunities Within Mobile Payments, Metals & Mining, and Utilities

India

JSW Steel Limited is an integrated steel producer with manufacturing facilities in Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and the western state of Maharashtra. The Company produces products including hot rolled coils, cold rolled coils, wire rods, galvanized coils and sheets.

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JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)

Tata Steel: Lingering "Debt" Weight.

Executive summary Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) (“TSL”)’s FY18 revenue improved on rising production volume in Indian operations which accounted for...

Bondcritic

JSW Steel: Upward Capex Revision Does Not Matter

Executive summaryJSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) (JSW) reported strong revenue during 4Q’FY18 (ended in March) with an improving EBITDA margin on rising...

Bondcritic

JSW Steel Earnings Release FY03/18 – Three All-Time Highs in a Row

JSW Steel released its earnings for FY03/18 and 4QFY03/18 on 16 May beating both our forecasts and consensus estimates in terms of revenue and net...

Gihan Bandara

Emerging Markets Strategy: Attractive Setups in China, Brazil, India, and Chile

Recent USD strength has weighed on EM’s relative performance. Given (1) strength in commodity prices (sans precious metals), (2) the potential for...

Vermilion Research

Global Strategy: Opportunities Within Mobile Payments, Metals & Mining, and Utilities

We believe the secular mobile payments theme has room to run, and we expect related stocks to continue outperforming... see pages 2-4 for...

Vermilion Research

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