Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ASML Holding N.V. reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, highlighting both achievements and challenges.</li><li>The company recorded total net sales of EUR 7.5 billion, surpassing its own guidance, largely due to increased sales of deep ultraviolet (deep UV) systems and heightened Installed Base Management sales.</li><li>Net income for the quarter was EUR 2.1 billion, representing 27.8% of total net sales, with an EPS of EUR 5.28.</li></ul>

ASML Holding N.V. reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, highlighting both achievements and challenges.The company recorded total net sales of EUR 7.5 billion, surpassing its own guidance, largely due to increased sales of deep ultraviolet (deep UV) systems and heightened Installed Base Management sales.Net income for the quarter was EUR 2.1 billion, representing 27.8% of total net sales, with an EPS of EUR 5.28.

China Woes and Weak Sales Projections Send ASML Shares Plunging—Is AI Still a Lifeline?

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>I don’t think it’s been any secret that I’ve been a peak litho bear for quite some time. I think we are finally seeing reality hit the company and the stock. Let’s discuss earnings, and then I’ll talk about peak lithography and TSMC.</li><li>ASML accidentally leaked earnings this week, and the leak wasn’t good. They beat Q3, but the issue was the outlook for next year and orders coming way below expectations. It’s funny because Q4 revenue is expected to accelerate, but no one is paying attention to that.\</li><li>Memory was half of the measly 2.6 billion-order book and is likely driven more by DUV for HBM than logic High NA.</li></ul>

I don’t think it’s been any secret that I’ve been a peak litho bear for quite some time. I think we are finally seeing reality hit the company and the stock. Let’s discuss earnings, and then I’ll talk about peak lithography and TSMC.ASML accidentally leaked earnings this week, and the leak wasn’t good. They beat Q3, but the issue was the outlook for next year and orders coming way below expectations. It’s funny because Q4 revenue is expected to accelerate, but no one is paying attention to that.\Memory was half of the measly 2.6 billion-order book and is likely driven more by DUV for HBM than logic High NA.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>The price of ASML EUV machine is increasing as thruput (wafer / hour) is increasing. </li>
<li>TSMC 3nm is fully booked in 2025. Here is the list of clients / chips. </li>
<li>SiC and MCU over-investments in China? Very likely. China is limiting SiC investments. </li>
</ul>


The price of ASML EUV machine is increasing as thruput (wafer / hour) is increasing. 
TSMC 3nm is fully booked in 2025. Here is the list of clients / chips. 
SiC and MCU over-investments in China? Very likely. China is limiting SiC investments. 


Tech News This Week. ASML, TSMC, Intel, SiC Capacity, MCU in China

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC Delivers Strong 3Q24 Revenue and Margin Growth; Margin Guidance Climbs</li>
<li>Management Says Believes AI Demand is Not Hyped... Companies Extracting ROIs</li>
<li>TSMC – Structural Long Rating Maintained; NT$1,515 Price Target Suggests 46% Upside</li>
</ul>


TSMC Delivers Strong 3Q24 Revenue and Margin Growth; Margin Guidance Climbs
Management Says Believes AI Demand is Not Hyped... Companies Extracting ROIs
TSMC – Structural Long Rating Maintained; NT$1,515 Price Target Suggests 46% Upside


TSMC 3Q24: Capex & Margin Guidance Remains Strong; Explains Why AI Demand Not Overhyped; Stay Long

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>ASML reported revenues of €7.5 billion, +19% QoQ and +11.9% YoY. This was €200 million above the high end of the guided range. Q424 guided to €9 billion</li>
<li>Logic Fab delays and a collapse in sales to China caused ASML to reduce their 2025 forecast to the low end of the €30 -€40 billion guided in November 2022</li>
<li>Despite these challenges, ASML's latest forecast still implies 16% YoY growth in 2025</li>
</ul>


ASML reported revenues of €7.5 billion, +19% QoQ and +11.9% YoY. This was €200 million above the high end of the guided range. Q424 guided to €9 billion
Logic Fab delays and a collapse in sales to China caused ASML to reduce their 2025 forecast to the low end of the €30 -€40 billion guided in November 2022
Despite these challenges, ASML's latest forecast still implies 16% YoY growth in 2025


Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

China Woes and Weak Sales Projections Send ASML Shares Plunging—Is AI Still a Lifeline?

ASML Holding N.V. reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, highlighting both achievements and challenges. The company...

Baptista Research

Earnings: TSMC, ASML, AEHR, Telecom

I don’t think it’s been any secret that I’ve been a peak litho bear for quite some time. I think we are finally seeing reality hit the company and...

Fabricated Knowledge

Tech News This Week. ASML, TSMC, Intel, SiC Capacity, MCU in China

ASML price increase in 2025. TSMC 3nm Order Surge Expected in 2025. Intel's Next-Gen Panther Lake CPUs Handed to Lenovo. China restrictions on SiC...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC 3Q24: Capex & Margin Guidance Remains Strong; Explains Why AI Demand Not Overhyped; Stay Long

TSMC reports strong revenue and margin growth in 3Q24, with belief in sustainable AI demand and maintaining a positive long-term outlook.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASML Tanks Semis On Tepid 2025 Outlook

ASML downward revision of their 2025 forecast tanked the stock, and semiconductors generally, overnight. Yet they are still projecting 16% YoY...

William Keating

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China Woes and Weak Sales Projections Send ASML Shares Plunging—Is AI Still a Lifeline?

ASML Holding N.V. reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, highlighting both achievements and challenges. The company...

Baptista Research

Earnings: TSMC, ASML, AEHR, Telecom

I don’t think it’s been any secret that I’ve been a peak litho bear for quite some time. I think we are finally seeing reality hit the company and...

Fabricated Knowledge

Tech News This Week. ASML, TSMC, Intel, SiC Capacity, MCU in China

ASML price increase in 2025. TSMC 3nm Order Surge Expected in 2025. Intel's Next-Gen Panther Lake CPUs Handed to Lenovo. China restrictions on SiC...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC 3Q24: Capex & Margin Guidance Remains Strong; Explains Why AI Demand Not Overhyped; Stay Long

​TSMC reports strong revenue and margin growth in 3Q24, with belief in sustainable AI demand and maintaining a positive long-term outlook.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASML Tanks Semis On Tepid 2025 Outlook

ASML downward revision of their 2025 forecast tanked the stock, and semiconductors generally, overnight. Yet they are still projecting 16% YoY...

William Keating

TSMC reports strong revenue and margin growth in 3Q24, with belief in sustainable AI demand and maintaining a positive long-term outlook.