Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Kamala Harris assumes presidency after Joe Biden steps down amidst discussions on AI regulations and semiconductor debates.</li><li>India's iVP Semi focuses on domestic market with locally developed strategy, aiming to penetrate the fabless startup industry.</li><li>Composite materials boast superior performance but come with higher costs due to advanced properties and manufacturing processes; South Korean experts urge government to protect OLED panel market against Chinese competition.</li></ul>

Kamala Harris assumes presidency after Joe Biden steps down amidst discussions on AI regulations and semiconductor debates.India's iVP Semi focuses on domestic market with locally developed strategy, aiming to penetrate the fabless startup industry.Composite materials boast superior performance but come with higher costs due to advanced properties and manufacturing processes; South Korean experts urge government to protect OLED panel market against Chinese competition.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Jul-2024): Biden out, Harris leads amid AI, semiconductor debates.

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Aehr had a messy print, with the core business actually weaker than expected as they incorporated their recent acquisition. It’s hard to stay bearish, as they have a lot of potential product launches coming.
</li>
<li>
TSMC beat gross margins despite everything because of higher utilization. The logic cycle is starting to kick off in earnest. I believe WFE Capex will be much higher next year.
</li>
<li>
ASML talked up high-NA DRAM insertion on 25/26. Only Samsung could do it. Good luck, Samsung!

</li>
</ul>



Aehr had a messy print, with the core business actually weaker than expected as they incorporated their recent acquisition. It’s hard to stay bearish, as they have a lot of potential product launches coming.


TSMC beat gross margins despite everything because of higher utilization. The logic cycle is starting to kick off in earnest. I believe WFE Capex will be much higher next year.


ASML talked up high-NA DRAM insertion on 25/26. Only Samsung could do it. Good luck, Samsung!




Earnings: TSMC, AEHR, ASML, VAT Group, Export Restrictions

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Irate U.S. politicians have gunned down their own tech sector, triggering declines of 7% to 20% among leading semiconductor equipment stocks outside China. </li>
<li>We expect a bounce after such large declines - and further gains for Naura and AMEC in China. </li>
<li>Investors now face difficult questions about the future of Chinese demand, the sustainability of the AI boom, and valuations. We are not optimistic.</li>
</ul>


Irate U.S. politicians have gunned down their own tech sector, triggering declines of 7% to 20% among leading semiconductor equipment stocks outside China. 
We expect a bounce after such large declines - and further gains for Naura and AMEC in China. 
Investors now face difficult questions about the future of Chinese demand, the sustainability of the AI boom, and valuations. We are not optimistic.


Semiconductor Equipment Stocks: A Bounce Before the Reckoning

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Stocks Fall On Potential New U.S. Tech Restrictions for China &amp; Potential Policy Shift from a Trump White House... Strong TSMC &amp; ASML Results Fail to Rally the Sector</li>
<li>Even Tighter Technology Restrictions for China?  -- US Could Use Special Rule to Restrict Selling of Products Made by Foreign Companies</li>
<li>We See TSMC's Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up </li>
</ul>


Taiwan Stocks Fall On Potential New U.S. Tech Restrictions for China &amp; Potential Policy Shift from a Trump White House... Strong TSMC &amp; ASML Results Fail to Rally the Sector
Even Tighter Technology Restrictions for China?  -- US Could Use Special Rule to Restrict Selling of Products Made by Foreign Companies
We See TSMC's Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Strong TSMC & ASML Data Fails to Rally the Semiconductor Sector

<ul>
<li>ASML's results last week indicated continued strength in the semiconductor industry. We analyze the results to identify any potential signs of weakening or pauses in global industry momentum for Taiwan.</li>
<li>Net system bookings surged 54% QoQ and ASML reported rising utilization levels of its clients' equipment. Inventory days rose significantly, but this is due to upcoming 2025 orderbook deliveries.</li>
<li>New US, Europe, and Japan fabs bolster strong revenue outlook into 2026E. Overall, robust industry demand persists according to ASML's latest data, with no major signs of softness.</li>
</ul>


ASML's results last week indicated continued strength in the semiconductor industry. We analyze the results to identify any potential signs of weakening or pauses in global industry momentum for Taiwan.
Net system bookings surged 54% QoQ and ASML reported rising utilization levels of its clients' equipment. Inventory days rose significantly, but this is due to upcoming 2025 orderbook deliveries.
New US, Europe, and Japan fabs bolster strong revenue outlook into 2026E. Overall, robust industry demand persists according to ASML's latest data, with no major signs of softness.


ASML Readthrough: Are There Signs of an Industry Slow Down?

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Jul-2024): Biden out, Harris leads amid AI, semiconductor debates.

Kamala Harris takes charge as Biden steps down, discussions on AI regulations and semiconductor debates continue, iVP Semi targets domestic market,...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Earnings: TSMC, AEHR, ASML, VAT Group, Export Restrictions

The first week of earnings lends us confirmation bias, and additional fears of export restrictions. Let’s start with the actual earnings order,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductor Equipment Stocks: A Bounce Before the Reckoning

Reports of tighter US sanctions and Trump's comments about Taiwan have broken the momentum of SPE stocks. A bounce seems likely, but a scenario of...

Scott Foster

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Strong TSMC & ASML Data Fails to Rally the Semiconductor Sector

Taiwan stocks dropped last week as potential new US tech restrictions for China loom, despite strong TSMC and ASML results. Apple ramping up...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASML Readthrough: Are There Signs of an Industry Slow Down?

We analyze ASML's results for signs of potential industry softness or pausing of demand. Overall, ASML's data depicts an industry experiencing...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Jul-2024): Biden out, Harris leads amid AI, semiconductor debates.

Kamala Harris takes charge as Biden steps down, discussions on AI regulations and semiconductor debates continue, iVP Semi targets domestic market,...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Earnings: TSMC, AEHR, ASML, VAT Group, Export Restrictions

The first week of earnings lends us confirmation bias, and additional fears of export restrictions. Let’s start with the actual earnings order,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductor Equipment Stocks: A Bounce Before the Reckoning

Reports of tighter US sanctions and Trump's comments about Taiwan have broken the momentum of SPE stocks. A bounce seems likely, but a scenario of...

Scott Foster

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Strong TSMC & ASML Data Fails to Rally the Semiconductor Sector

​Taiwan stocks dropped last week as potential new US tech restrictions for China loom, despite strong TSMC and ASML results. Apple ramping up...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASML Readthrough: Are There Signs of an Industry Slow Down?

​We analyze ASML's results for signs of potential industry softness or pausing of demand. Overall, ASML's data depicts an industry experiencing...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan stocks dropped last week as potential new US tech restrictions for China loom, despite strong TSMC and ASML results. Apple ramping up...

We analyze ASML's results for signs of potential industry softness or pausing of demand. Overall, ASML's data depicts an industry experiencing...