Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,150/1,140 points and the resistance at 1,173/1,177 points.</li><li>In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend, forming a zig-zag down pattern as it searches for the bottom within the 1,100-1,506-point range.</li><li>In the short term, the market has continued to set new lows for the second consecutive day, reaching 1,160 points — its lowest level in four years and 11 months, compared to 1,130.54 points recorded on April 3, 2020.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,150/1,140 points and the resistance at 1,173/1,177 points.In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend, forming a zig-zag down pattern as it searches for the bottom within the 1,100-1,506-point range.In the short term, the market has continued to set new lows for the second consecutive day, reaching 1,160 points — its lowest level in four years and 11 months, compared to 1,130.54 points recorded on April 3, 2020.

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,195/1,200 (10-day EMA) points and the support at 1,180/1,173 points.</li><li>In the medium term, the index remains in a zig-zag downtrend, searching for the bottom within the 1,130-1,506 point range.</li><li>In the short term, a technical rebound signal has emerged after hitting a new low at 1,160.99 points yesterday (vs. the previous low of 1,173.13 points on March 4), marking the lowest level in four years and 11 months since April 3, 2020, at 1,130.54 points. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,195/1,200 (10-day EMA) points and the support at 1,180/1,173 points.In the medium term, the index remains in a zig-zag downtrend, searching for the bottom within the 1,130-1,506 point range.In the short term, a technical rebound signal has emerged after hitting a new low at 1,160.99 points yesterday (vs. the previous low of 1,173.13 points on March 4), marking the lowest level in four years and 11 months since April 3, 2020, at 1,130.54 points. 

<ul><li>The combined 4Q24 earnings of 597 stocks in the SET Index (accounting for 98% of total market capitalization) amounted to Bt190,163mn, up 12% YoY but down 5% QoQ.</li><li>Excluding the energy, petrochemical, and banking sectors, earnings for the remaining stocks grew 23% YoY but declined 12% QoQ.</li><li>Among the 185 stocks with Bloomberg consensus estimates, earnings came in at Bt179,438mn, rising 24% YoY and 3% QoQ, but falling short of the Bloomberg consensus estimates by approximately 8%. </li></ul>

The combined 4Q24 earnings of 597 stocks in the SET Index (accounting for 98% of total market capitalization) amounted to Bt190,163mn, up 12% YoY but down 5% QoQ.Excluding the energy, petrochemical, and banking sectors, earnings for the remaining stocks grew 23% YoY but declined 12% QoQ.Among the 185 stocks with Bloomberg consensus estimates, earnings came in at Bt179,438mn, rising 24% YoY and 3% QoQ, but falling short of the Bloomberg consensus estimates by approximately 8%. 

Special Report: 4Q24 Consensus Earnings Summary - March 4, 2025

<ul><li>The impact of concerns over the tourism situation, which may escalate following the repatriation of Uyghurs to China in late February, is expected to be limited owing to the following factors: i) The proportion of tourists from the US and Japan, which have issued travel advisories for Thailand, is low at only 6% of total tourists.</li><li>ii) The government plans to revive the "We Travel Together" scheme during the low season (May-September), helping to mitigate the potential impact of the Uyghur issue, which is expected to affect the same period; historically, tourism conditions tend to normalize within 3-4 months after any unrest or unusual incidents.</li><li>iii) Stock prices typically decline and underperform the SET slightly at -2% to -3% in the one-week to two-month period following such events. </li></ul>

The impact of concerns over the tourism situation, which may escalate following the repatriation of Uyghurs to China in late February, is expected to be limited owing to the following factors: i) The proportion of tourists from the US and Japan, which have issued travel advisories for Thailand, is low at only 6% of total tourists.ii) The government plans to revive the "We Travel Together" scheme during the low season (May-September), helping to mitigate the potential impact of the Uyghur issue, which is expected to affect the same period; historically, tourism conditions tend to normalize within 3-4 months after any unrest or unusual incidents.iii) Stock prices typically decline and underperform the SET slightly at -2% to -3% in the one-week to two-month period following such events. 

Tourism and Airline Sectors - Expect Limited Impact from Uyghur Repatriation

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain an Outperform rating, viewing the stock as fundamentally attractive with upside of 28% compared to the fair value (FV) of Bt33.50, based on a required return of 3.8%.</li><li>The short-term tactical perspective has become more positive, as the stock price has declined 7% QTD, likely reflecting the weak 3Q24 performance.</li><li>We remain negative on the long-term performance as the company enters a slow-growth phase, with expected EPS growth at a CAGR of just 1% for 2024-26E, primarily because the F&amp;B business has yet to pick up.</li></ul>

We maintain an Outperform rating, viewing the stock as fundamentally attractive with upside of 28% compared to the fair value (FV) of Bt33.50, based on a required return of 3.8%.The short-term tactical perspective has become more positive, as the stock price has declined 7% QTD, likely reflecting the weak 3Q24 performance.We remain negative on the long-term performance as the company enters a slow-growth phase, with expected EPS growth at a CAGR of just 1% for 2024-26E, primarily because the F&amp;B business has yet to pick up.

Minor International - In-Line 3Q24 NP; 4Q24E Earnings to Decline QoQ on Seasonality

Thailand

Minor International PCL is a global company focused on three primary businesses including restaurants, hotels and lifestyle brands distribution.

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Minor International (MINT TB)

KTX Zoom: US PPI - MARCH 13, 2025

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,150/1,140 points and the resistance at 1,173/1,177 points.

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - US Inflation: March 12, 2025

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,195/1,200 (10-day EMA) points and the support at 1,180/1,173...

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report: 4Q24 Consensus Earnings Summary - March 4, 2025

The combined 4Q24 earnings of 597 stocks in the SET Index (accounting for 98% of total market capitalization) amounted to Bt190,163mn, up 12% YoY...

Krungthai XSpring

Tourism and Airline Sectors - Expect Limited Impact from Uyghur Repatriation

We maintain a Neutral view on the sector and select CENTEL as the top pick (Outperform; TP at Bt39.00), given its stronger-than-peer earnings...

Krungthai XSpring

Minor International - In-Line 3Q24 NP; 4Q24E Earnings to Decline QoQ on Seasonality

We maintain an Outperform rating, viewing the stock as fundamentally attractive with upside of 28% compared to the fair value (FV) of Bt33.50,...

Krungthai XSpring

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