Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $134-135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold</li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $134-135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold


Upgrading Spain to Overweight; EM Uptrend Break; Buys in Discretionary, Financials, Materials

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Mercedes-Benz, historically a leader in the luxury automotive segment, reported a mixed financial outlook influenced by several factors, including a challenging global economic environment, geopolitical tensions, and significant shifts in the automotive industry.</li>
<li>Their recent earnings call provided an elaborate overview of their current positioning and future strategies.</li>
<li>On the positive side, Mercedes-Benz's transition towards electric mobility is progressing.</li>
</ul>


Mercedes-Benz, historically a leader in the luxury automotive segment, reported a mixed financial outlook influenced by several factors, including a challenging global economic environment, geopolitical tensions, and significant shifts in the automotive industry.
Their recent earnings call provided an elaborate overview of their current positioning and future strategies.
On the positive side, Mercedes-Benz's transition towards electric mobility is progressing.


Mercedes-Benz: Focus On Autonomous Driving & Enhanced ADAS Systems...

<ul>
<li>The recent earnings for Mercedes-Benz provides a comprehensive view of the company's performance in the first quarter and offers insight into both the opportunities and challenges it faces.</li>
<li>Mercedes-Benz reported a solid first quarter with key figures aligning with previously disclosed goals despite operating in a dynamic and uncertain economic environment.</li>
<li>However, there are external factors that may impact future results, notably changes in trade policies and associated tariffs.</li>
</ul>


The recent earnings for Mercedes-Benz provides a comprehensive view of the company's performance in the first quarter and offers insight into both the opportunities and challenges it faces.
Mercedes-Benz reported a solid first quarter with key figures aligning with previously disclosed goals despite operating in a dynamic and uncertain economic environment.
However, there are external factors that may impact future results, notably changes in trade policies and associated tariffs.


Mercedes Benz: How Electrification & Innovation Are Powering the Next Growth Wave!

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercedes-benz-group-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21602:1" rel="noopener">Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GR)'s</a> EBIT fell 30% in 2024 and another 24% in Q12025; management expects significantly lower earnings &amp;free cash flow in 2025 amid rising capex, weak pricing and tariffs</li>
<li>
<strong> China &amp; JV Risk:</strong> 34% of units sold in China yield limited profit. EV price wars and slowing demand in the region continue to erode margins.</li>
<li>
<strong> Valuation Trap:</strong> Despite a low P/E (~8x FY25e), high dividend yield (~8%), the cheap valuation may be unsustainable as structural pressures mount from tariffs, EV transition costs, and falling RoS.</li>
</ul>



Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GR)'s EBIT fell 30% in 2024 and another 24% in Q12025; management expects significantly lower earnings &amp;free cash flow in 2025 amid rising capex, weak pricing and tariffs

 China &amp; JV Risk: 34% of units sold in China yield limited profit. EV price wars and slowing demand in the region continue to erode margins.

 Valuation Trap: Despite a low P/E (~8x FY25e), high dividend yield (~8%), the cheap valuation may be unsustainable as structural pressures mount from tariffs, EV transition costs, and falling RoS.


Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>Mercedes-Benz China confirmed Thursday that it is implementing business adjustments, including layoffs, to improve operational efficiency in a challenging and changing market.</li><li>The Chinese subsidiary of the German auto giant said restructuring and downsizing were unavoidable, but it pledged to comply with legal regulations and offer affected employees severance packages above market standards along with help finding alternative work.</li><li>While the company did not disclose which departments or what percentage of employees would be affected, sources told Caixin that Beijing Mercedes-Benz Sales Service Co.</li></ul>

Mercedes-Benz China confirmed Thursday that it is implementing business adjustments, including layoffs, to improve operational efficiency in a challenging and changing market.The Chinese subsidiary of the German auto giant said restructuring and downsizing were unavoidable, but it pledged to comply with legal regulations and offer affected employees severance packages above market standards along with help finding alternative work.While the company did not disclose which departments or what percentage of employees would be affected, sources told Caixin that Beijing Mercedes-Benz Sales Service Co.

Mercedes-Benz China Confirms Layoffs in a Changing and Challenging Market 

Germany

Mercedes-Benz Group AG operates as an automobile company. The Company designs, manufactures, distributes, and sells a wide range of automotive products such as passenger cars, trucks, vans, and buses. Mercedes-Benz Group also provides financial and other services relating to its automotive businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GR)

Upgrading Spain to Overweight; EM Uptrend Break; Buys in Discretionary, Financials, Materials

Upgrading Spain $EWP to Overweight; EM Uptrend Break $EEM $VWO; Lows likely "in" on $SPX and $ACWI; Buys Focused in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Mercedes-Benz: Focus On Autonomous Driving & Enhanced ADAS Systems...

These additional layers of analysis serve to provide a comprehensive and robust valuation, giving investors a nuanced understanding of the inherent...

Baptista Research

Mercedes Benz: How Electrification & Innovation Are Powering the Next Growth Wave!

The recent earnings for Mercedes-Benz provides a comprehensive view of the company's performance in the first quarter and offers insight into both...

Baptista Research

Short - Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG.DE)

Mercedes-Benz Group's earnings and free cash flow expected to significantly decrease in 2025 due to rising capex, weak pricing, and tariffs, with...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Mercedes-Benz China Confirms Layoffs in a Changing and Challenging Market

Mercedes-Benz China confirmed Thursday that it is implementing business adjustments, including layoffs, to improve operational efficiency in a...

Caixin Global

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Upgrading Spain to Overweight; EM Uptrend Break; Buys in Discretionary, Financials, Materials

Upgrading Spain $EWP to Overweight; EM Uptrend Break $EEM $VWO; Lows likely "in" on $SPX and $ACWI; Buys Focused in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Mercedes-Benz: Focus On Autonomous Driving & Enhanced ADAS Systems...

These additional layers of analysis serve to provide a comprehensive and robust valuation, giving investors a nuanced understanding of the inherent...

Baptista Research

Mercedes Benz: How Electrification & Innovation Are Powering the Next Growth Wave!

The recent earnings for Mercedes-Benz provides a comprehensive view of the company's performance in the first quarter and offers insight into both...

Baptista Research

Short - Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG.DE)

​Mercedes-Benz Group's earnings and free cash flow expected to significantly decrease in 2025 due to rising capex, weak pricing, and tariffs, with...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Mercedes-Benz China Confirms Layoffs in a Changing and Challenging Market

Mercedes-Benz China confirmed Thursday that it is implementing business adjustments, including layoffs, to improve operational efficiency in a...

Caixin Global

Mercedes-Benz Group's earnings and free cash flow expected to significantly decrease in 2025 due to rising capex, weak pricing, and tariffs, with...