Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Kakao Bank (KB) is South Korea’s largest digital bank. It's a subsidiary of Kakao, which holds a 27.3% stake post listing.</li>
<li>It is a branchless digital bank that only started operations in 2017. As of Sep 21, it had a loan book of US$21bn, deposit base of US$24bn and 17.4m customers.</li>
<li>Even though Kakao started operations only in July 2017, by 2020 it had already garnered more than 1% market share of overall loans and deposits in South Korea.</li>
</ul>


Kakao Bank (KB) is South Korea’s largest digital bank. It's a subsidiary of Kakao, which holds a 27.3% stake post listing.
It is a branchless digital bank that only started operations in 2017. As of Sep 21, it had a loan book of US$21bn, deposit base of US$24bn and 17.4m customers.
Even though Kakao started operations only in July 2017, by 2020 it had already garnered more than 1% market share of overall loans and deposits in South Korea.


2022 High Conviction - Kakao Bank - A Long Way to Go

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>The MAS is not at all happy with the frequent digital banking services outages at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dbs-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22:1" rel="noopener">DBS (DBS SP)</a>. There will be fines and higher required capital.  </li>
<li>The outlook for the home market lending is already poor, with negative loan growth in recent months. Probes of money laundering will likely make lending even more sparse.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-overseas-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:113:1" rel="noopener">UOB (UOB SP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc-a723bd63-0890-486f-aaa0-3bb9ad2b95ce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN)</a> results are all illustrative of risks facing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dbs-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22:1" rel="noopener">DBS (DBS SP)</a> before results come out, especially credit costs.</li>
</ul>


The MAS is not at all happy with the frequent digital banking services outages at DBS (DBS SP). There will be fines and higher required capital.  
The outlook for the home market lending is already poor, with negative loan growth in recent months. Probes of money laundering will likely make lending even more sparse.

UOB (UOB SP) , Standard Chartered (STAN LN) , HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN) results are all illustrative of risks facing DBS (DBS SP) before results come out, especially credit costs.


DBS - Fines, Negative Loan Growth, Greater China CRE Risks, UOB & STAN & HSBC Illustrative

<p>Rising oil prices can benefit DBS far more than peers, given its loan exposure to oil &amp; gas service sector. The bank can see improvements in both in on-balance sheet exposures as well as its off-balance sheet commitments. A look at loan loss reserves compared with gross loans, shows how one can model write-backs, and a precedence for seeing reserves come down after a sharp rise.  </p>

Rising oil prices can benefit DBS far more than peers, given its loan exposure to oil &amp; gas service sector. The bank can see improvements in both in on-balance sheet exposures as well as its off-balance sheet commitments. A look at loan loss reserves compared with gross loans, shows how one can model write-backs, and a precedence for seeing reserves come down after a sharp rise.  

<ul>
<li>Oil is down dramatically from USD83.26 in April this year to USD67.37 now</li>
<li>DBS saw a surge in NPLs in FY16 from the oil price decline in that time</li>
<li>There appears to be some correlation between DBS and oil prices</li>
</ul>


Oil is down dramatically from USD83.26 in April this year to USD67.37 now
DBS saw a surge in NPLs in FY16 from the oil price decline in that time
There appears to be some correlation between DBS and oil prices


DBS - Beware of Oil Exposures like Last Time Oil Prices Declined

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>J&amp;T Global Express, a global logistics provider, raised about US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO in Oct 2023. Its pre-IPO investors will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 25.4% market share as per 2023 parcel volume.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


J&amp;T Global Express, a global logistics provider, raised about US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO in Oct 2023. Its pre-IPO investors will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 25.4% market share as per 2023 parcel volume.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


J&T Global Express IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Tiny Float with 87%+ Stake Lockup Release Worth >US$8.8bn

Singapore

DBS Group Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries provide a variety of financial services.  The Company offers services including mortgage financing, lease and hire purchase financing, nominee and trustee, funds management, corporate advisory and brokerage .  DBS Group also acts as the primary dealer in Singapore government securities.

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DBS (DBS SP)

2022 High Conviction - Kakao Bank - A Long Way to Go

Kakao Bank (KB) is South Korea’s largest digital bank. It's a subsidiary of Kakao, which holds a 27.3% stake post listing.

Sumeet Singh

DBS - Fines, Negative Loan Growth, Greater China CRE Risks, UOB & STAN & HSBC Illustrative

DBS faces fines and higher capital requirements, due to digital banking services outages. This is new. It comes at time where domestic loan growth...

Daniel Tabbush

DBS - Oil Prices Can Support Reversals

Far higher oil prices in recent days, weeks, makes the outlook for the bank's oil and gas service exposures much better, and these remain the...

Daniel Tabbush

DBS - Beware of Oil Exposures like Last Time Oil Prices Declined

Oil prices are down dramatically, where DBS is exposed. This may explain what appears to be a good correlation, oil and DBS. Credit costs can rise...

Daniel Tabbush

J&T Global Express IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Tiny Float with 87%+ Stake Lockup Release Worth >US$8.8bn

J&T Global Express' IPO linked lockup expired over the weeked. The stock has been correcting over the past few weeks, especially with the CCASS...

Sumeet Singh

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