IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>.
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dyna-mac-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16153:1" rel="noopener">Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xingda-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17836:1" rel="noopener">Xingda International (1899 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trancom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13043:1" rel="noopener">Trancom Co Ltd (9058 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-gaia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8339:1" rel="noopener">T Gaia Corp (3738 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP).

Lowest spreads: Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP), Xingda International (1899 HK), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Trancom Co Ltd (9058 JP), Descente Ltd (8114 JP), T Gaia Corp (3738 JP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (14 Oct) - Haitong/GJTA, GA Pack, Henlius, Canvest, Seven & I, Arcadium Lithium

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Late last evening, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a> announced a definitive agreement where Rio will acquire Arcadium for US$5.85/share in cash.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US)</a> closed nearly 31% higher at US$5.55/share and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a> should follow when the stock opens.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a> could move around 40% higher today to catch up with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US)</a> - that would still leave a 5.4% spread to the offer price.</li>
</ul>


Late last evening, Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) and Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) announced a definitive agreement where Rio will acquire Arcadium for US$5.85/share in cash.

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) closed nearly 31% higher at US$5.55/share and Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) should follow when the stock opens.

Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) could move around 40% higher today to catch up with Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) - that would still leave a 5.4% spread to the offer price.


Rio Tinto Goes All-In for Arcadium Lithium

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>On October 9, Rio Tinto agreed to acquire Arcadium Lithium through a Jersey scheme of arrangement for $5.85/share, a 90% premium, valuing Arcadium’s diluted share capital at $6.7 billion.</li>
<li>As of October 4, Arcadium shares on the NYSE had fallen by approximately 54.1% since listing. Rio Tinto is taking advantage of low lithium prices to acquire high-quality lithium assets.</li>
<li>The offer price is generous: 17.3x 25e EBITDA vs. closest comparable Albemarle Corp (ALB US) at 12.2x 25e EBITDA. Gross spread is 5.1%. I set my PT at $5.85. Long.</li>
</ul>


On October 9, Rio Tinto agreed to acquire Arcadium Lithium through a Jersey scheme of arrangement for $5.85/share, a 90% premium, valuing Arcadium’s diluted share capital at $6.7 billion.
As of October 4, Arcadium shares on the NYSE had fallen by approximately 54.1% since listing. Rio Tinto is taking advantage of low lithium prices to acquire high-quality lithium assets.
The offer price is generous: 17.3x 25e EBITDA vs. closest comparable Albemarle Corp (ALB US) at 12.2x 25e EBITDA. Gross spread is 5.1%. I set my PT at $5.85. Long.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a> has disclosed a binding offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22114:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)</a> at US$5.85 per share, a 90% premium to the undisturbed price of US$3.08 (4 October).</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to analyst price targets and peer multiples but unattractive compared to cyclical low timing and precedent transactions.</li>
<li>The shareholder structure requires an activist to disrupt the vote. The long-dated offer provides optionality on a bump if lithium prices materially re-rates. </li>
</ul>



Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) has disclosed a binding offer from Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN) at US$5.85 per share, a 90% premium to the undisturbed price of US$3.08 (4 October).
The offer is attractive compared to analyst price targets and peer multiples but unattractive compared to cyclical low timing and precedent transactions.
The shareholder structure requires an activist to disrupt the vote. The long-dated offer provides optionality on a bump if lithium prices materially re-rates. 


Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio’s Binding Proposal

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during September. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.6% (vs. 46.2% as of August 30); GBL, 40.7% (vs. 41.1%);</li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 14.9% (vs. 16.5%); Industrivärden C, 0.9% (vs. 1.7%); Investor B, 2.6% (vs. 1.9%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35% (vs. 35.7%). Rio DLC spread widened to 26% (vs. 19.8%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during September. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.6% (vs. 46.2% as of August 30); GBL, 40.7% (vs. 41.1%);
Heineken Holding, 14.9% (vs. 16.5%); Industrivärden C, 0.9% (vs. 1.7%); Investor B, 2.6% (vs. 1.9%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35% (vs. 35.7%). Rio DLC spread widened to 26% (vs. 19.8%).
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September'24 Report

United Kingdom

Rio Tinto plc is an international mining company. The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO AU.

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Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)

Merger Arb Mondays (14 Oct) - Haitong/GJTA, GA Pack, Henlius, Canvest, Seven & I, Arcadium Lithium

This week, the highest gross spreads are Seven & I (18.3%), Henlius (8.1%), Canvest (7.5%), Haitong Securities (7.2%), Shinko Electric (7.2%), GA...

Arun George

Rio Tinto Goes All-In for Arcadium Lithium

Rio Tinto and Arcadium Lithium have announced a definitive agreement where Rio will acquire Arcadium for US$5.85/share in cash. There were a lot of...

Brian Freitas

Rio to Fully Pay for Arcadium Lithium

Rio Tinto to acquire Arcadium Lithium for $5.85/share at a 90% premium, taking advantage of low lithium prices for high-quality assets.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio’s Binding Proposal

The offer is not a knockout bid but the shareholder structure requires an activist to disrupt the vote. The long-dated offer provides optionality...

Arun George

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September'24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during September. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Merger Arb Mondays (14 Oct) - Haitong/GJTA, GA Pack, Henlius, Canvest, Seven & I, Arcadium Lithium

This week, the highest gross spreads are Seven & I (18.3%), Henlius (8.1%), Canvest (7.5%), Haitong Securities (7.2%), Shinko Electric (7.2%), GA...

Arun George

Rio Tinto Goes All-In for Arcadium Lithium

Rio Tinto and Arcadium Lithium have announced a definitive agreement where Rio will acquire Arcadium for US$5.85/share in cash. There were a lot of...

Brian Freitas

Rio to Fully Pay for Arcadium Lithium

​Rio Tinto to acquire Arcadium Lithium for $5.85/share at a 90% premium, taking advantage of low lithium prices for high-quality assets.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio’s Binding Proposal

The offer is not a knockout bid but the shareholder structure requires an activist to disrupt the vote. The long-dated offer provides optionality...

Arun George

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September'24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during September. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Rio Tinto to acquire Arcadium Lithium for $5.85/share at a 90% premium, taking advantage of low lithium prices for high-quality assets.