Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>A soft CPI report was just what Commodities needed to take the next leg higher</li><li>Inflation expectations fat tailed. Commodities on the move, but we still need oil. China to export inflation to Europe?</li><li>Despite last week’s dovish inflation print, we are not sure that it is disinflation that we need to be worried about, both in the short- and long term.</li><li>Let’s discuss three reasons for that.</li></ul>

A soft CPI report was just what Commodities needed to take the next leg higherInflation expectations fat tailed. Commodities on the move, but we still need oil. China to export inflation to Europe?Despite last week’s dovish inflation print, we are not sure that it is disinflation that we need to be worried about, both in the short- and long term.Let’s discuss three reasons for that.

Energy Cable: Commodities, Freight Rates and Goods Imports Are Rising...

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Let me start by dwelling on the fact that Macro generalists such as myself and Thorsten Slok of Apollo suddenly spend countless hours watching Copper trends.</li><li>It is probably a red flag in itself, but it just seems like these developments are so INCREDIBLY important for global macro- and geopolitics these months.</li><li>We have been all over the Chinese copper story in recent months and also traded it with good luck, but we have admittedly been wrong in our call for a weaker CNY (so far).</li></ul>

Let me start by dwelling on the fact that Macro generalists such as myself and Thorsten Slok of Apollo suddenly spend countless hours watching Copper trends.It is probably a red flag in itself, but it just seems like these developments are so INCREDIBLY important for global macro- and geopolitics these months.We have been all over the Chinese copper story in recent months and also traded it with good luck, but we have admittedly been wrong in our call for a weaker CNY (so far).

Steno Signals #100 – China’s MAJOR power grab on Copper supply chains

<ul><li>The Chinese equity trends have really been eye-catching over the past weeks and despite US efforts to flare-up the trade war via new tariffs, the trend has just continued.</li><li>The new Chinese efforts to prop up the sentiment in the Real Estate space have so far been successful and it seems like an attempt that is a LOT more serious and sizy than what we have seen so far.</li><li>We are no longer talking about trial balloons or minor twists.</li></ul>

The Chinese equity trends have really been eye-catching over the past weeks and despite US efforts to flare-up the trade war via new tariffs, the trend has just continued.The new Chinese efforts to prop up the sentiment in the Real Estate space have so far been successful and it seems like an attempt that is a LOT more serious and sizy than what we have seen so far.We are no longer talking about trial balloons or minor twists.

Portfolio Watch: Are you paying attention to China?

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome to a short and sweet look at the current business cycle, what to expect, and which assets to buy ahead of what could be significant cyclical expansion.</li><li>April data has in general been week in our models and nowcasts, which was reflected in the fairly dovish CPI report yesterday.</li><li>However, May actitivity is picking up momentum again, and our Truck Demand indicator points to the business cycle picking up again from May onwards.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome to a short and sweet look at the current business cycle, what to expect, and which assets to buy ahead of what could be significant cyclical expansion.April data has in general been week in our models and nowcasts, which was reflected in the fairly dovish CPI report yesterday.However, May actitivity is picking up momentum again, and our Truck Demand indicator points to the business cycle picking up again from May onwards.

Business Cycle Watch – What to buy if manufacturing keeps surprising to the upside?

<ul><li>Before we start we need to talk about freight rates as they are telling for the overall demand cycle.</li><li>The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) surged 18.8% sequentially to 2,306 for the week ending May 10, marking its fifth consecutive weekly increase.</li><li>This puts the SCFI at its highest level outside the pandemic boom, as most liners have successfully implemented general rate increases (GRIs) in recent weeks.</li></ul>

Before we start we need to talk about freight rates as they are telling for the overall demand cycle.The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) surged 18.8% sequentially to 2,306 for the week ending May 10, marking its fifth consecutive weekly increase.This puts the SCFI at its highest level outside the pandemic boom, as most liners have successfully implemented general rate increases (GRIs) in recent weeks.

Energy Cable: Nowcasts hinting that April was a big false flag

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Energy Cable: Commodities, Freight Rates and Goods Imports Are Rising...

Main take aways: A soft CPI report was just what Commodities needed to take the next leg higherInflation expectations fat tailed Commodities on...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #100 – China’s MAJOR power grab on Copper supply chains

Happy Sunday from sunny Greece and welcome to a very special jubilee edition of Steno Signals. Let me start by dwelling on the fact that Macro...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Are you paying attention to China?

The Chinese equity trends have really been eye-catching over the past weeks and despite US efforts to flare-up the trade war via new tariffs, the...

Steno Research

Business Cycle Watch – What to buy if manufacturing keeps surprising to the upside?

Hello everyone, and welcome to a short and sweet look at the current business cycle, what to expect, and which assets to buy ahead of what could...

Steno Research

Energy Cable: Nowcasts hinting that April was a big false flag

Before we start we need to talk about freight rates as they are telling for the overall demand cycle. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index...

Steno Research

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