Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Fund Manager Positioning In March fund managers added to their energy position but reduced overall commodities like grains, softs and metals on a MoM basis — the latest BofA survey shows.</li><li>Investors have been underweight commodities now for the past 4 months (longest underweight streak since Aug'19) Compared to the past 20-year z-score, fund managers remain heavily underweight in commodities and even more in energy.</li><li>In March fund managers added to their energy position but reduced overall commodities like grains, softs and metals on a MoM basis — the latest BofA survey shows.</li></ul>

Fund Manager Positioning In March fund managers added to their energy position but reduced overall commodities like grains, softs and metals on a MoM basis — the latest BofA survey shows.Investors have been underweight commodities now for the past 4 months (longest underweight streak since Aug'19) Compared to the past 20-year z-score, fund managers remain heavily underweight in commodities and even more in energy.In March fund managers added to their energy position but reduced overall commodities like grains, softs and metals on a MoM basis — the latest BofA survey shows.

Fund Managers Commodity Positioning // Cocoa’s Historic Run Continues…

Adventurous Investing For Grown Ups, The Adventurous Investor

Adventurous Investor

Adventurous Investing For Grown Ups

The Adventurous Investor

Introducing private investors to adventurous investment ideas. What does this mean in practice? I’d identify several core themes: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) both in the US and the UK. I’ll look both at the theory underlying these very popular funds as well as the constant stream of new launches. I’ll also feature some model portfolios, with a simple mix of ETFs to suit all tastes. Alternative investment ideas. This is a deliberately wide brief but takes in everything from real asset-backed funds (property and infrastructure for instance) through to music and art…and most things in between. I’ll also journey on adventures overseas and look at alternative emerging and frontier countries and markets that should feature in your portfolio. From Russia to Africa and plenty of exciting places in between. For a UK audience I will also continue to regularly analyze and comment on the listed closed-end fund segment and investment trusts. Last but by no means least I’ll try and make sense of the big macro stories that impact investors. I’ll also weave into this my own slightly idiosyncratic views which I’m afraid mark me out as a liberal/ social-democratic inclined centrist Dad (which is I fear sometimes seen as a tag of shame in these radicalized days).

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>I’ve promised to keep updating my asset allocation tables every couple of months – and, on cue, here they are!</li><li>They come in two guises. The first, below, is my overall take on the range of asset classes. There aren’t any changes this time. I’m still wary of equities, especially US equities, though, paradoxically, if I must own US equities, I would rather own the really big mega-cap tech names.</li><li>I have a neutral position overall in equities, which implies a 60/40 equities/bonds balance, which hasn’t changed for a while – I wouldn’t be racing to put even more money to work in equities. </li></ul>

I’ve promised to keep updating my asset allocation tables every couple of months – and, on cue, here they are!They come in two guises. The first, below, is my overall take on the range of asset classes. There aren’t any changes this time. I’m still wary of equities, especially US equities, though, paradoxically, if I must own US equities, I would rather own the really big mega-cap tech names.I have a neutral position overall in equities, which implies a 60/40 equities/bonds balance, which hasn’t changed for a while – I wouldn’t be racing to put even more money to work in equities. 

Monday Macro – Asset allocation update, the Nvidia show, stubborn rates, and Gold

<ul><li>Gold and Bitcoin prices both remain massively supported by easing financial conditions and a bunch of liquidity in the market.</li><li>While the Fed Funds Rate remains high at 5,5% - liquidity conditions in the market is what really matters for both safe haven assets.</li><li>Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan announced that gold is their number one pick in the commodities market. According to them, the price has room to rise towards $2.500.</li></ul>

Gold and Bitcoin prices both remain massively supported by easing financial conditions and a bunch of liquidity in the market.While the Fed Funds Rate remains high at 5,5% - liquidity conditions in the market is what really matters for both safe haven assets.Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan announced that gold is their number one pick in the commodities market. According to them, the price has room to rise towards $2.500.

Gold and Bitcoin Rallye & CTA Positioning Update

<ul><li>China set a growth target of “around 5%” for 2024, according to the “Government Work Report” released Tuesday as part of the opening of the National People’s Congress annual meeting.</li><li>Last year China’s economy grew by 5.2%, matching the official target of around 5%.</li><li>China set a deficit-to-GDP ratio of 3% for the year, down from a rare upward revision to 3.8% late last year from the original 3%.</li></ul>

China set a growth target of “around 5%” for 2024, according to the “Government Work Report” released Tuesday as part of the opening of the National People’s Congress annual meeting.Last year China’s economy grew by 5.2%, matching the official target of around 5%.China set a deficit-to-GDP ratio of 3% for the year, down from a rare upward revision to 3.8% late last year from the original 3%.

The Aftermath of El Nino Weather // China Re-Confirms 5% GDP Growth Target

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

<ul><li>Gold and Silver have remained unresponsive to lower rates, escalating geopolitical risks and higher China and India seasonal demand.</li><li>Notably, early February saw the emergence of two contrarian signals that merited closer attention.</li><li>While these signals are not foolproof market timing tools, they warrant attention when they align with technical support levels within an established consolidation pattern.</li></ul>

Gold and Silver have remained unresponsive to lower rates, escalating geopolitical risks and higher China and India seasonal demand.Notably, early February saw the emergence of two contrarian signals that merited closer attention.While these signals are not foolproof market timing tools, they warrant attention when they align with technical support levels within an established consolidation pattern.

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

Fund Managers Commodity Positioning // Cocoa’s Historic Run Continues…

Fund Manager Positioning In March fund managers added to their energy position but reduced overall commodities like grains, softs and metals on a...

The Commodity Report

Monday Macro – Asset allocation update, the Nvidia show, stubborn rates, and Gold

I’ve promised to keep updating my asset allocation tables every couple of months – and, on cue, here they are! They come in two guises.

Adventurous Investor

Gold and Bitcoin Rallye & CTA Positioning Update

Gold and Bitcoin prices both remain massively supported by easing financial conditions and a bunch of liquidity in the market. While the Fed Funds...

The Commodity Report

The Aftermath of El Nino Weather // China Re-Confirms 5% GDP Growth Target

China set a growth target of “around 5%” for 2024, according to the “Government Work Report” released Tuesday as part of the opening of the...

The Commodity Report

Silver: Is a Breakout Imminent?

Gold and Silver have remained unresponsive to lower rates, escalating geopolitical risks and higher China and India seasonal demand.

Untying The Gordian Knot

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