Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> has been pulling back for 2 weeks, this week was slightly up at the Close on Tuesday 31st of December, but it could close the week down.</li>
<li>In a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-gold-s-rally-leaves-latecomers-behind-why-you-should-wait-for-the-next-move" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous insight</a> in mid-December, we advised holding off on entering a LONG position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold</a> and waiting for a more favorable opportunity. Now the time may be right.</li>
<li>If this WEEKLY Close for Gold is negative (or if Gold reaches an oversold support before Friday), the odds for a rally would start to look quite good.</li>
</ul>



Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has been pulling back for 2 weeks, this week was slightly up at the Close on Tuesday 31st of December, but it could close the week down.
In a previous insight in mid-December, we advised holding off on entering a LONG position in Gold and waiting for a more favorable opportunity. Now the time may be right.
If this WEEKLY Close for Gold is negative (or if Gold reaches an oversold support before Friday), the odds for a rally would start to look quite good.


Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and energy is reasonable and we also expect this trend to continue for a little while.</li><li>The latest BofA fund manager survey showed how extreme the position is currently and how little cash professional investors currently have to allocate.</li><li>FMS cash level fell from 4.3% to 3.9% of AUM, matching the lowest level since Jun '21.</li></ul>

While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and energy is reasonable and we also expect this trend to continue for a little while.The latest BofA fund manager survey showed how extreme the position is currently and how little cash professional investors currently have to allocate.FMS cash level fell from 4.3% to 3.9% of AUM, matching the lowest level since Jun '21.

Investors Are Max Long Stocks & Bearish Commodities

<ul><li>Historic Coffee Price Rally During the week Coffee Futures hit a new all-time high.</li><li>Supply concerns continue to fuel the rally in a strongly backwardated futures market.</li><li>The drought that El Niño weather brought over to Brazil over the last summer continue to be persistent.</li></ul>

Historic Coffee Price Rally During the week Coffee Futures hit a new all-time high.Supply concerns continue to fuel the rally in a strongly backwardated futures market.The drought that El Niño weather brought over to Brazil over the last summer continue to be persistent.

Historic Coffee Price Rally & WASDE Report Recap

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> rebounded higher this week, after 2 weeks down, <strong>it is already getting  overbought according to our WEEKLY model, the remaining upside appears limited</strong>.</li>
<li>If you are actively trading Gold, in this insight we will analyze the current Gold patterns and show you why i<strong>t may be too late to enter the trade here</strong>.</li>
<li>A better opportunity to enter LONG may come after another 1 or 2 weeks, when the market should pull back again.</li>
</ul>



Gold (GOLD COMDTY) rebounded higher this week, after 2 weeks down, it is already getting  overbought according to our WEEKLY model, the remaining upside appears limited.
If you are actively trading Gold, in this insight we will analyze the current Gold patterns and show you why it may be too late to enter the trade here.
A better opportunity to enter LONG may come after another 1 or 2 weeks, when the market should pull back again.


EQD | Gold’s Rally Leaves Latecomers Behind: Why You Should Wait for the Next Move

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Welcome back to our weekly editorial on everything commodity and energy-related!This week is all about China as the Politburo and PBoC have announced new (undefined) stimulus measures aimed at simultaneously countering tariffs from the Trump administration in 2025 and bolstering the economy, regaining confidence as China battles structural issues.</li><li>This naturally raises the question of how this will impact commodities.</li><li>As the world’s largest importer of commodities by a significant margin, China’s injection of capital into its economy could provide a substantial boost.</li></ul>

Welcome back to our weekly editorial on everything commodity and energy-related!This week is all about China as the Politburo and PBoC have announced new (undefined) stimulus measures aimed at simultaneously countering tariffs from the Trump administration in 2025 and bolstering the economy, regaining confidence as China battles structural issues.This naturally raises the question of how this will impact commodities.As the world’s largest importer of commodities by a significant margin, China’s injection of capital into its economy could provide a substantial boost.

The Drill – Will Chinese stimulus be a home run for commodities?

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

Price Gauge
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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

Gold May Be Ready to Restart Its Rally

Gold has been pulling back for 2 weeks, the time may have come to start to enter LONG positions, a rally could start soon, in this insight we...

Nico Rosti

Investors Are Max Long Stocks & Bearish Commodities

While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and...

The Commodity Report

Historic Coffee Price Rally & WASDE Report Recap

Historic Coffee Price Rally During the week Coffee Futures hit a new all-time high. Supply concerns continue to fuel the rally in a strongly...

The Commodity Report

EQD | Gold’s Rally Leaves Latecomers Behind: Why You Should Wait for the Next Move

Gold rallied higher this week but it is already overbought, further upside is limited, according to our models. It is too late to enter the trade...

Nico Rosti

The Drill – Will Chinese stimulus be a home run for commodities?

Welcome back to our weekly editorial on everything commodity and energy-related!This week is all about China as the Politburo and PBoC have...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Gold May Be Ready to Restart Its Rally

​Gold has been pulling back for 2 weeks, the time may have come to start to enter LONG positions, a rally could start soon, in this insight we...

Nico Rosti

Investors Are Max Long Stocks & Bearish Commodities

While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and...

The Commodity Report

Historic Coffee Price Rally & WASDE Report Recap

Historic Coffee Price Rally During the week Coffee Futures hit a new all-time high. Supply concerns continue to fuel the rally in a strongly...

The Commodity Report

EQD | Gold’s Rally Leaves Latecomers Behind: Why You Should Wait for the Next Move

​Gold rallied higher this week but it is already overbought, further upside is limited, according to our models. It is too late to enter the trade...

Nico Rosti

The Drill – Will Chinese stimulus be a home run for commodities?

Welcome back to our weekly editorial on everything commodity and energy-related!This week is all about China as the Politburo and PBoC have...

Steno Research

Gold has been pulling back for 2 weeks, the time may have come to start to enter LONG positions, a rally could start soon, in this insight we...

Gold rallied higher this week but it is already overbought, further upside is limited, according to our models. It is too late to enter the trade...