Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The focus on the US election is currently masking another, and potentially much more important, story: the meltdown in sovereign bond markets.</li><li>A minor “hiccup” from Rachel Reeves led to a complete frenzy in Gilt markets on Wednesday, the softest NFP report in years triggered another bond market sell-off, and German Bunds are trading at all-time weak levels versus swap rates.</li><li>Something is going on, as markets are avoiding sovereign bond risk at all costs.</li></ul>

The focus on the US election is currently masking another, and potentially much more important, story: the meltdown in sovereign bond markets.A minor “hiccup” from Rachel Reeves led to a complete frenzy in Gilt markets on Wednesday, the softest NFP report in years triggered another bond market sell-off, and German Bunds are trading at all-time weak levels versus swap rates.Something is going on, as markets are avoiding sovereign bond risk at all costs.

Steno Signals #124 – Something is WRONG in bond markets

<ul>
<li>We are thrilled to announce that our macro trading portfolio is now live on the website, giving you access to our approach to allocation.</li>
<li>The full portfolio, investment philosophy, and thoughts on the role of macro in any portfolio are accessible here, but we want to take this opportunity to explain why the portfolio was launched, what you can expect from it, and how it will give you an edge in global markets.</li>
<li>The portfolio simulates an investment of $100,000 in accessible, long-only products like ETFs, stocks, and occasionally crypto or FX (with recommendations on how to trade these via ETFs or similar instruments).</li>
</ul>


We are thrilled to announce that our macro trading portfolio is now live on the website, giving you access to our approach to allocation.
The full portfolio, investment philosophy, and thoughts on the role of macro in any portfolio are accessible here, but we want to take this opportunity to explain why the portfolio was launched, what you can expect from it, and how it will give you an edge in global markets.
The portfolio simulates an investment of $100,000 in accessible, long-only products like ETFs, stocks, and occasionally crypto or FX (with recommendations on how to trade these via ETFs or similar instruments).


Macro Portfolio Update #1 – The Steno Research Macro Portfolio Is Live!

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing</li>
<li>Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors</li>
<li>Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio</li>
</ul>


A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing
Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors
Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio


October Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

<ul><li>Welcome to the Weekly China Watch, where we examine the Chinese landscape through the lens of Western investors.</li><li>A month ago, flows into China surged following what seemed like a “whatever it takes” moment by Chinese authorities.</li><li>However, these flows have since dwindled, and markets are growing weary of the “headline hockey” or “briefing bingo” from Chinese authorities, who continue to throw around billions and trillions through eye-catching headlines.</li></ul>

Welcome to the Weekly China Watch, where we examine the Chinese landscape through the lens of Western investors.A month ago, flows into China surged following what seemed like a “whatever it takes” moment by Chinese authorities.However, these flows have since dwindled, and markets are growing weary of the “headline hockey” or “briefing bingo” from Chinese authorities, who continue to throw around billions and trillions through eye-catching headlines.

China Watch: This is NOT stimulus. It’s a debt swap!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Outlook remains bullish following the SPX multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The market is quite clearly telling us that the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
<li>We would treat any pre-election pullback (if it comes) as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5760 and 5655-5670.</li>
<li>We believe there will be a strong end-of-year rally that will extend into the early part of 2025 due to bullish end-of-year seasonal tendencies during up years (SPX +22.1% YTD).</li>
</ul>


Outlook remains bullish following the SPX multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The market is quite clearly telling us that the path of least resistance is higher.
We would treat any pre-election pullback (if it comes) as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5760 and 5655-5670.
We believe there will be a strong end-of-year rally that will extend into the early part of 2025 due to bullish end-of-year seasonal tendencies during up years (SPX +22.1% YTD).


Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX; Bitcoin Breaking Out

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Steno Signals #124 – Something is WRONG in bond markets

The focus on the US election is currently masking another, and potentially much more important, story: the meltdown in sovereign bond markets. A...

Steno Research

Macro Portfolio Update #1 – The Steno Research Macro Portfolio Is Live!

We are thrilled to announce that our macro trading portfolio is now live on the website, giving you access to our approach to allocation. The full...

Steno Research

October Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

This insight was Incorrectly titled September review while it is a review of markets and themes for October including HK/China, Japan, India,...

Rikki Malik

China Watch: This is NOT stimulus. It’s a debt swap!

Welcome to the Weekly China Watch, where we examine the Chinese landscape through the lens of Western investors. A month ago, flows into China...

Steno Research

Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX; Bitcoin Breaking Out

Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $NDX $IWM; Bitcoin and Silver Breaking Out $IBIT $SLV. Pullbacks =...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

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