Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Deputy PM Choi Sang-mok commits to aggressively pursue separate taxation of dividend income, marking a shift towards concrete action for value-up policies.</li>
<li>Ever since the introduction of the Value-up policy earlier this year, the primary incentive championed by the local capital market has been the separate taxation of dividend income.</li>
<li>Hence, the government's official commitment to this marks a crucial step in reshaping the Value-up momentum.</li>
</ul>


Deputy PM Choi Sang-mok commits to aggressively pursue separate taxation of dividend income, marking a shift towards concrete action for value-up policies.
Ever since the introduction of the Value-up policy earlier this year, the primary incentive championed by the local capital market has been the separate taxation of dividend income.
Hence, the government's official commitment to this marks a crucial step in reshaping the Value-up momentum.


Significant Developments Emerged Today for Korea's Value-Up

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Throughout 2024 we've discussed the theme of more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, the latest being the UK's FTSE 100, South Korea's KOSPI, and Norway's Oslo OBX.</li>
<li>This is classic bull market behavior. The long list of breakouts discussed throughout 2024 include the MSCI EM, ACWI, MSCI EAFE (in local currency), Israel, Germany, Sweden, France, and Ireland.</li>
<li>Another important thing to note is that none of these breakouts are failing; they all remain above their major breakout levels, a very bullish sign. We remain bullish.</li>
</ul>


Throughout 2024 we've discussed the theme of more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, the latest being the UK's FTSE 100, South Korea's KOSPI, and Norway's Oslo OBX.
This is classic bull market behavior. The long list of breakouts discussed throughout 2024 include the MSCI EM, ACWI, MSCI EAFE (in local currency), Israel, Germany, Sweden, France, and Ireland.
Another important thing to note is that none of these breakouts are failing; they all remain above their major breakout levels, a very bullish sign. We remain bullish.


More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; FTSE 100, KOSPI, and Oslo OBX Breaking Out

<ul>
<li>NPS abruptly joins 'Corporate Value Up Program', plans to select three asset managers. Deadline: this month's 29th; results: March 19th, possibly linked to Korea Premium Index ETF launch in mid-May.</li>
<li>The document outlines guidelines, allocating 90-100% to value stocks, with KOSDAQ under 20%. While benchmarked to the internally-built index, it will likely focus on Korea Premium Index and KOSDAQ Global.</li>
<li>The fund size is crucial. NPS will disclose details later. But still, there is considerable room to this year's ceiling for local equity; a significant amount could flow into this.</li>
</ul>


NPS abruptly joins 'Corporate Value Up Program', plans to select three asset managers. Deadline: this month's 29th; results: March 19th, possibly linked to Korea Premium Index ETF launch in mid-May.
The document outlines guidelines, allocating 90-100% to value stocks, with KOSDAQ under 20%. While benchmarked to the internally-built index, it will likely focus on Korea Premium Index and KOSDAQ Global.
The fund size is crucial. NPS will disclose details later. But still, there is considerable room to this year's ceiling for local equity; a significant amount could flow into this.


Korea NPS Abruptly Joins Corporate Value Up Program: According to Document Obtained from NPS

<ul>
<li>KRX considers a comprehensive change to the Value-up Index scoring system. Weightings emphasize ROE, PER, and FCF while reducing PBR weight.</li>
<li>KRX considers adopting scoring-based constituent weighting to prevent JPX Prime 150's issues, but NPS opposes. Float market cap weighting like JPX Prime 150 is contemplated to address concerns.</li>
<li>Momentum trading in the Value-up initiative will favor low PER and high ROE stocks over low PBR. The semiconductor sector is anticipated to benefit significantly from float market cap-based weighting.</li>
</ul>


KRX considers a comprehensive change to the Value-up Index scoring system. Weightings emphasize ROE, PER, and FCF while reducing PBR weight.
KRX considers adopting scoring-based constituent weighting to prevent JPX Prime 150's issues, but NPS opposes. Float market cap weighting like JPX Prime 150 is contemplated to address concerns.
Momentum trading in the Value-up initiative will favor low PER and high ROE stocks over low PBR. The semiconductor sector is anticipated to benefit significantly from float market cap-based weighting.


New Information on Korea Value-Up Index Scoring System & Constituent Weighting

<ul>
<li>Estimating FINANCIAL INVESTMENT's dividend arbitrage positions' exact size and liquidation plans is challenging. Yet, past trading patterns suggest a substantial portion may be liquidated soon, akin to January's volume (≥₩2T).</li>
<li>Many local market participants expect a scenario unfolding post-March, aligning with KOSPI companies rescheduling ex-dividend dates. Expect substantial position liquidation by April's end, likely impacting index negatively, akin to January.</li>
<li>Position setups should adapt to short-term index corrections, leveraging earnings season for earnings-based spreads using index short hedging.</li>
</ul>


Estimating FINANCIAL INVESTMENT's dividend arbitrage positions' exact size and liquidation plans is challenging. Yet, past trading patterns suggest a substantial portion may be liquidated soon, akin to January's volume (≥₩2T).
Many local market participants expect a scenario unfolding post-March, aligning with KOSPI companies rescheduling ex-dividend dates. Expect substantial position liquidation by April's end, likely impacting index negatively, akin to January.
Position setups should adapt to short-term index corrections, leveraging earnings season for earnings-based spreads using index short hedging.


Investigating the Size and Timing of Korea's Local Dividend Arbitrage Traders' Position Liquidation

South Korea

The KOSPI Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges. The Index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1980. Note: The preferred shares are excluded in calculating the KOSPI Index from June 14, 2002. 

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Significant Developments Emerged Today for Korea's Value-Up

Deputy PM Choi Sang-mok vows to push for separate taxation of dividend income, a key aspect of the Value-up policy, signaling a shift towards...

Sanghyun Park

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; FTSE 100, KOSPI, and Oslo OBX Breaking Out

Bullish Outlook Intact; More Countries Breaking Out, including UK's FTSE 100, South Korea's KOSPI, and Norway's Oslo OBX; Buys in global...

Vermilion Research

Korea NPS Abruptly Joins Corporate Value Up Program: According to Document Obtained from NPS

Three days ago, NPS announced three external managers for the Value-up initiative: Bearing, Woori, and Truston. Today, new information has surfaced...

Sanghyun Park

New Information on Korea Value-Up Index Scoring System & Constituent Weighting

This post delivers new information on the screening scoring system and constituent weighting of the Korea Value-up Index, presently circulating...

Sanghyun Park

Investigating the Size and Timing of Korea's Local Dividend Arbitrage Traders' Position Liquidation

This post delves into the size and timing of position liquidation by local dividend arbitrage traders in Korea, exploring potential subsequent...

Sanghyun Park

Significant Developments Emerged Today for Korea's Value-Up

​Deputy PM Choi Sang-mok vows to push for separate taxation of dividend income, a key aspect of the Value-up policy, signaling a shift towards...

Sanghyun Park

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; FTSE 100, KOSPI, and Oslo OBX Breaking Out

Bullish Outlook Intact; More Countries Breaking Out, including UK's FTSE 100, South Korea's KOSPI, and Norway's Oslo OBX; Buys in global...

Vermilion Research

Korea NPS Abruptly Joins Corporate Value Up Program: According to Document Obtained from NPS

Three days ago, NPS announced three external managers for the Value-up initiative: Bearing, Woori, and Truston. Today, new information has surfaced...

Sanghyun Park

New Information on Korea Value-Up Index Scoring System & Constituent Weighting

This post delivers new information on the screening scoring system and constituent weighting of the Korea Value-up Index, presently circulating...

Sanghyun Park

Investigating the Size and Timing of Korea's Local Dividend Arbitrage Traders' Position Liquidation

This post delves into the size and timing of position liquidation by local dividend arbitrage traders in Korea, exploring potential subsequent...

Sanghyun Park

Deputy PM Choi Sang-mok vows to push for separate taxation of dividend income, a key aspect of the Value-up policy, signaling a shift towards...