Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Aug 2nd which has an aggregated holding worth USD547.0bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,687mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in Hyundai Glovis, Woori Financial, Korea Aerospace, Samsung Biologic, Sk Hynix.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Aug 2nd which has an aggregated holding worth USD547.0bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,687mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in Hyundai Glovis, Woori Financial, Korea Aerospace, Samsung Biologic, Sk Hynix.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 2nd): Hyundai Glovis, Woori Financial, Korea Aerospace

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The message WuXi AppTec hopes to convey in 24H1 report is that the Company isn’t losing orders/customers due to BIOSECURE Act and from 2025 it will return to high growth. </li>
<li>TIDES business growth is below expectations. Whether WuXi AppTec's performance can be reversed is no longer solely depends on fundamentals/industry cycles, but on whether geopolitical risks can be fully resolved.</li>
<li>Regardless of the outcome of 2024 presidential election, securing US supply chain is a already bipartisan consensus. If any Bill does pass in the future, valuation will plummet again.</li>
</ul>


The message WuXi AppTec hopes to convey in 24H1 report is that the Company isn’t losing orders/customers due to BIOSECURE Act and from 2025 it will return to high growth. 
TIDES business growth is below expectations. Whether WuXi AppTec's performance can be reversed is no longer solely depends on fundamentals/industry cycles, but on whether geopolitical risks can be fully resolved.
Regardless of the outcome of 2024 presidential election, securing US supply chain is a already bipartisan consensus. If any Bill does pass in the future, valuation will plummet again.


WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) 24H1- Backlog Looks Good but It May Not Bring a Performance Reversal

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance ends today, the changes will be announced in the first week of September and implemented at the close of trading on 12 September.</li>
<li>There is at least one change expected for each of the Secondary Battery, Bio, Internet, Game and BBIG indices. </li>
<li>The largest flows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-future-m-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12421:1" rel="noopener">Posco Future M</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ecopro-bm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27873:1" rel="noopener">Ecopro BM</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-biopharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28966:1" rel="noopener">SK Biopharmaceuticals</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alteogen-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15886:1" rel="noopener">Alteogen</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc-38a560c3-749f-4bd5-8671-c0df9cb659d7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26893:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3970:1" rel="noopener">SKC Co</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/douzone-bizon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20161:1" rel="noopener">Douzone Bizon</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener">Krafton</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-biologics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22932:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Biologics</a>.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance ends today, the changes will be announced in the first week of September and implemented at the close of trading on 12 September.
There is at least one change expected for each of the Secondary Battery, Bio, Internet, Game and BBIG indices. 
The largest flows will be in Posco Future M, Ecopro BM, SK Biopharmaceuticals, Alteogen, Celltrion, SKC Co, Kakao Corp, Douzone Bizon, Krafton and Samsung Biologics.


KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes as Review Period Ends Today

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Jul 26th which has an aggregated holding worth USD549.0bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD854mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in Sk Hynix (000660 KS), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS).</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Jul 26th which has an aggregated holding worth USD549.0bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD854mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in Sk Hynix (000660 KS), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS).


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 26th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics

South Korea

Samsung Biologics Co.,Ltd. manufactures bio-healthcare products. The Company develops, refines, and distributes biopharmaceutical products.

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Samsung Biologics (207940 KS)

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 2nd): Hyundai Glovis, Woori Financial, Korea Aerospace

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Hyundai Glovis, Woori Financial, Korea Aerospace,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) 24H1- Backlog Looks Good but It May Not Bring a Performance Reversal

WuXi AppTec aims to reassure investors in 24H1 report,highlighting resilience amid geopolitical risks.But US supply chain security is bipartisan...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes as Review Period Ends Today

We expect at least 1 change for each of the Secondary Battery, Bio, Internet, Game and BBIG indices. Flows are pretty big on some of the stocks and...

Brian Freitas

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 26th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 2nd): Hyundai Glovis, Woori Financial, Korea Aerospace

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Hyundai Glovis, Woori Financial, Korea Aerospace,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) 24H1- Backlog Looks Good but It May Not Bring a Performance Reversal

​WuXi AppTec aims to reassure investors in 24H1 report,highlighting resilience amid geopolitical risks.But US supply chain security is bipartisan...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes as Review Period Ends Today

We expect at least 1 change for each of the Secondary Battery, Bio, Internet, Game and BBIG indices. Flows are pretty big on some of the stocks and...

Brian Freitas

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 26th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

WuXi AppTec aims to reassure investors in 24H1 report,highlighting resilience amid geopolitical risks.But US supply chain security is bipartisan...