Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bottom line is that we could not be bearish as long as the IWM is above $208, the IWC is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495.</li>
<li>These support levels have held strong, and we are now seeing the aforementioned risk-off signals starting to abate.</li>
<li>This is an encouraging sign and we remain constructive as long as the above support levels hold.</li>
</ul>


Our bottom line is that we could not be bearish as long as the IWM is above $208, the IWC is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495.
These support levels have held strong, and we are now seeing the aforementioned risk-off signals starting to abate.
This is an encouraging sign and we remain constructive as long as the above support levels hold.


Risk-Off Signals Abating; Cyclicals Reassert as Rates Rise; Buying Fertilizer and Copper Stocks

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The bid came finally at €19.5/share in cash, above expectations and almost same level as Capital IQ consensus 22e NAV (€19.37/share). </li>
<li>The offer  has been well timed and taking advantage of the slow recovery in German offices. Brookfield increased its shareholding since bid rumors surfaced.</li>
<li>Gross spread is c. 0% for a friendly deal highly likely to close, at current offer price. Wait for share price weakness before setting up a position.</li>
</ul>


The bid came finally at €19.5/share in cash, above expectations and almost same level as Capital IQ consensus 22e NAV (€19.37/share). 
The offer  has been well timed and taking advantage of the slow recovery in German offices. Brookfield increased its shareholding since bid rumors surfaced.
Gross spread is c. 0% for a friendly deal highly likely to close, at current offer price. Wait for share price weakness before setting up a position.


Brookfield/Alstria Office REIT: Agreed Takeover Offer

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.<ul type="disc">
<li>
Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.</li>
<li>
Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.</li>
</ul>

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.

Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.

Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.


Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

On 20 September, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">Ausnet Services (AST AU)</a> announced that it had received an unsolicited, indicative, non-binding and conditional proposal from the infrastructure affiliate of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brookfield-asset-manage-cl-a-0483cfb5-71a5-4931-af80-901e5f30aace" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23741:1" rel="noopener">Brookfield Asset Management (BAM US)</a> to acquire all the shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">Ausnet Services (AST AU)</a> via a Scheme of Arrangement at an indicative price of A$2.50/share in cash.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">Ausnet Services (AST AU)</a> finished the day 19.2% higher at A$2.36 on volumes that were nearly 3 times the ADV.In a surprising development, earlier today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apa-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18658:1" rel="noopener">APA Group (APA AU)</a> announced that it has made a non-binding indicative proposal to acquire all the shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">Ausnet Services (AST AU)</a> via a Scheme of Arrangement at an indicative price of A$2.60/share in cash and scrip.What makes this even more surprising is that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apa-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18658:1" rel="noopener">APA Group (APA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">Ausnet Services (AST AU)</a> were in discussions earlier. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">Ausnet Services (AST AU)</a> knew that a revised offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apa-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18658:1" rel="noopener">APA Group (APA AU)</a> was forthcoming, yet went ahead and gave Brookfield an 8 week period of exclusivity for due diligence.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apa-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18658:1" rel="noopener">APA Group (APA AU)</a> has clearly laid out why its proposal is superior to the proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brookfield-asset-manage-cl-a-0483cfb5-71a5-4931-af80-901e5f30aace" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23741:1" rel="noopener">Brookfield Asset Management (BAM US)</a> and this could get interesting with a possibility of even higher bids coming in for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">Ausnet Services (AST AU)</a>.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">Ausnet Services (AST AU)</a> is a member of the S&amp;P/ASX 100, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Indices. Once the stock is delisted, it will be replaced in the indices with the highest ranking stocks that are not part of the index. With the wave of ongoing M&amp;A activity, there will be a lot of additions to the indices in the next few months.

On 20 September, Ausnet Services (AST AU) announced that it had received an unsolicited, indicative, non-binding and conditional proposal from the infrastructure affiliate of Brookfield Asset Management (BAM US) to acquire all the shares in Ausnet Services (AST AU) via a Scheme of Arrangement at an indicative price of A$2.50/share in cash.Ausnet Services (AST AU) finished the day 19.2% higher at A$2.36 on volumes that were nearly 3 times the ADV.In a surprising development, earlier today, APA Group (APA AU) announced that it has made a non-binding indicative proposal to acquire all the shares in Ausnet Services (AST AU) via a Scheme of Arrangement at an indicative price of A$2.60/share in cash and scrip.What makes this even more surprising is that APA Group (APA AU) and Ausnet Services (AST AU) were in discussions earlier. Ausnet Services (AST AU) knew that a revised offer from APA Group (APA AU) was forthcoming, yet went ahead and gave Brookfield an 8 week period of exclusivity for due diligence.APA Group (APA AU) has clearly laid out why its proposal is superior to the proposal from Brookfield Asset Management (BAM US) and this could get interesting with a possibility of even higher bids coming in for Ausnet Services (AST AU).Ausnet Services (AST AU) is a member of the S&amp;P/ASX 100, S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Indices. Once the stock is delisted, it will be replaced in the indices with the highest ranking stocks that are not part of the index. With the wave of ongoing M&amp;A activity, there will be a lot of additions to the indices in the next few months.

AusNet (AST AU): Bidding War Between Brookfield & APA Brewing?

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>
Examining key questions from the Kioxia &amp; PE news flow
</h2>In our July 2021 note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toshiba-corp-6502-jp-chapter-5" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:54649" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) Chapter 5: Assessing the Next Move</a> we stated that one of the key events to be expected as early as September 2021, was the IPO of the firms 40% stake in Kioxia Holdings Corporation (Kioxia). Kioxia was due to be listed in 2020, but did not occur due to “the coronavirus pandemic and market volatility.” At the time of pulling the IPO in 2020, Toshiba was expecting a valuation of around $16 billion. Several media sources, including Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, have alluded to the fact that a potential merger of Kioxia with Western Digital to the value of US$20bn may be on the cards. They have cited a possible transaction using shares as opposed to cash or a combination. This is news that shareholders and in particular the activist shareholders have wanted to hear for some time and a transaction that is expected to be welcomed. We examine several of the key questions surrounding the Kioxia news and what is next for Toshiba - including the potential for a full PE bid.


Examining key questions from the Kioxia &amp; PE news flow
In our July 2021 note Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) Chapter 5: Assessing the Next Move we stated that one of the key events to be expected as early as September 2021, was the IPO of the firms 40% stake in Kioxia Holdings Corporation (Kioxia). Kioxia was due to be listed in 2020, but did not occur due to “the coronavirus pandemic and market volatility.” At the time of pulling the IPO in 2020, Toshiba was expecting a valuation of around $16 billion. Several media sources, including Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, have alluded to the fact that a potential merger of Kioxia with Western Digital to the value of US$20bn may be on the cards. They have cited a possible transaction using shares as opposed to cash or a combination. This is news that shareholders and in particular the activist shareholders have wanted to hear for some time and a transaction that is expected to be welcomed. We examine several of the key questions surrounding the Kioxia news and what is next for Toshiba - including the potential for a full PE bid. 

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) Chapter 6: Potential for Value Creation

Canada

Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. operates as an investment management firm. The Company focuses on property development, renewable energy, infrastructure, insurance, and private equity. Brookfield Asset Management serves customers worldwide.

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Brookfield Asset Management Lt (BAM US)

Risk-Off Signals Abating; Cyclicals Reassert as Rates Rise; Buying Fertilizer and Copper Stocks

Risk-off signals are abating which is an encouraging sign. Charts Highlighted: IWM, IWC, JETS, BAM, CBRE, INVH, JLL, HHC, JOE, MMI, APTS, CTO, AMT,...

Vermilion Research

Brookfield/Alstria Office REIT: Agreed Takeover Offer

Considering Q3 results, the offer price is not particularly generous, but the premium offered means the bid is highly likely to be succeed. Gross...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs. Financials are attractive globally, ranging...

Vermilion Research

AusNet (AST AU): Bidding War Between Brookfield & APA Brewing?

Yesterday, Brookfield made an offer for AusNet at A$2.5/share in cash. Today, APA Group made an offer at A$2.6/share in cash + scrip. This could go...

Brian Freitas

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) Chapter 6: Potential for Value Creation

@Toshiba (6502.JP) activists might applaud a Wester Digital Merger, but this is just one alternative - PE bids still viable. Perhaps value...

David Lepper

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