China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

Despite continued insistence by the PBOC that there is “no basis” for continued depreciation, the RMB continues to depreciate.  What makes this encouragement by the PBOC so notable is how skeptical the market is from the opening bell.Today the PBOC set the daily fix at 6.6594 but almost immediately dropped 100 pips to 6.6694.  The CNH in offshore activity opened approximately 300 points lower than the official fix.  In other words, the market is clearly signaling the direction it wants the RMB…

Despite continued insistence by the PBOC that there is “no basis” for continued depreciation, the RMB continues to depreciate.  What makes this encouragement by the PBOC so notable is how skeptical the market is from the opening bell.Today the PBOC set the daily fix at 6.6594 but almost immediately dropped 100 pips to 6.6694.  The CNH in offshore activity opened approximately 300 points lower than the official fix.  In other words, the market is clearly signaling the direction it wants the RMB…

The RMB Under Pressure and Good Trade Options

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

New data shows that in June average house prices in 100 major cities rose by 11.2% year-on-year, according to the latest data from SouFun-CREIS released this morning (detailed data update attached). This compares with 10.3% in May, and June was the 11th consecutive month of year-on-year price growth. Shenzhen recorded the strongest year-on-year increase of 52%, though decelerating vs previous month. On a sequential month-on-month basis, prices rose fastest in Nanjing and Xiamen. Of the 100 major…

New data shows that in June average house prices in 100 major cities rose by 11.2% year-on-year, according to the latest data from SouFun-CREIS released this morning (detailed data update attached). This compares with 10.3% in May, and June was the 11th consecutive month of year-on-year price growth. Shenzhen recorded the strongest year-on-year increase of 52%, though decelerating vs previous month. On a sequential month-on-month basis, prices rose fastest in Nanjing and Xiamen. Of the 100 major…

China Property Data Update - House Prices Rise 11.2% Y/Y In June Vs 10.3% In May

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

In my last piece I discussed why I thought an actual Brexit was unlikely despite the result of the referendum last week. This piece answers some questions on some of the detail of the likely path ahead and some of the interesting elements around this.

In my last piece I discussed why I thought an actual Brexit was unlikely despite the result of the referendum last week. This piece answers some questions on some of the detail of the likely path ahead and some of the interesting elements around this.

With global capital flows in real estate at historical highs, property investors need to pay greater attention to currency dynamics across the world, even if their performance is measured on local currency basis. We have updated our currency impact tables post-Brexit for USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, GBP and CNY. We make a simple assumption that a property investor uses his/her domestic 'investor' currency to buy assets in 'investment' currency at a spot rate on a given start date and then repatriates…

With global capital flows in real estate at historical highs, property investors need to pay greater attention to currency dynamics across the world, even if their performance is measured on local currency basis. We have updated our currency impact tables post-Brexit for USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, GBP and CNY. We make a simple assumption that a property investor uses his/her domestic 'investor' currency to buy assets in 'investment' currency at a spot rate on a given start date and then repatriates…

Post-Brexit Currency Impact Tables - For International Property Investors

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

What comes as crisis (Brexit) to most countries has been taken up as an opportunity by the Chinese Central bank (PBoC) and as it pushes RMB sharply lower. On the second day of trade post Brexit, Asian EM currencies like Rupiah and Rupee traded in a tight range thanks to Central bank selling, but PBoC fixed the Yuan at still a lower level of 6.6375 to USD. It was only last week that a level of RMB6.6: USD was considered a red line for PBoC by traders but is no longer the case. China is smartly…

What comes as crisis (Brexit) to most countries has been taken up as an opportunity by the Chinese Central bank (PBoC) and as it pushes RMB sharply lower. On the second day of trade post Brexit, Asian EM currencies like Rupiah and Rupee traded in a tight range thanks to Central bank selling, but PBoC fixed the Yuan at still a lower level of 6.6375 to USD. It was only last week that a level of RMB6.6: USD was considered a red line for PBoC by traders but is no longer the case. China is smartly…

China Spots Opportunity in Brexit Where Others See a Threat!

China

Bank of China Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, foreign currency transaction, fund settlement, and other services. Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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Bank of China (601988 CH)

The RMB Under Pressure and Good Trade Options

Despite continued insistence by the PBOC that there is “no basis” for continued depreciation, the RMB continues to depreciate. What makes this...

Christopher Balding

China Property Data Update - House Prices Rise 11.2% Y/Y In June Vs 10.3% In May

New data shows that in June average house prices in 100 major cities rose by 11.2% year-on-year, according to the latest data from SouFun-CREIS...

Robert Ciemniak

The Path to No Brexit

In my last piece I discussed why I thought an actual Brexit was unlikely despite the result of the referendum last week. This piece answers some...

Emad Mostaque

Post-Brexit Currency Impact Tables - For International Property Investors

With global capital flows in real estate at historical highs, property investors need to pay greater attention to currency dynamics across the...

Robert Ciemniak

China Spots Opportunity in Brexit Where Others See a Threat!

What comes as crisis (Brexit) to most countries has been taken up as an opportunity by the Chinese Central bank (PBoC) and as it pushes RMB sharply...

Asia Advisors

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)