China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

A strange thing has happened to the value of CNY/CNH options and NDF pricing.  Despite the increased concern over the RMB, the spread between the spot price and 3M and 1YR options prices have narrowed significantly over the past year.  This implies, if taken at face value, that traders are narrowing their volatility expectations for the RMB.As a simple point of comparison, on June 8, 2015, the market had an implied 3MO and 1 year forward rate of 6.23 and 6.34 based on a spot rate of 6.2056 RMB…

A strange thing has happened to the value of CNY/CNH options and NDF pricing.  Despite the increased concern over the RMB, the spread between the spot price and 3M and 1YR options prices have narrowed significantly over the past year.  This implies, if taken at face value, that traders are narrowing their volatility expectations for the RMB.As a simple point of comparison, on June 8, 2015, the market had an implied 3MO and 1 year forward rate of 6.23 and 6.34 based on a spot rate of 6.2056 RMB…

A Strange Thing Happened on the Way to the CNY/CNH Option

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In the recent cycle, Shenzhen has been outperforming all other cities in China on house price growth at +59% year-on-year in May according to SouFun-CREIS Index, with strong new home sales volumes at +39% year-on-year on 12-month rolling basis for April. The city enjoys strong corporate fundamentals with many leading firms in technology and telecom sectors based there, and historically limited supply of land and new homes relative to population growth.Yet latest weekly China new home sales GFA…

In the recent cycle, Shenzhen has been outperforming all other cities in China on house price growth at +59% year-on-year in May according to SouFun-CREIS Index, with strong new home sales volumes at +39% year-on-year on 12-month rolling basis for April. The city enjoys strong corporate fundamentals with many leading firms in technology and telecom sectors based there, and historically limited supply of land and new homes relative to population growth.Yet latest weekly China new home sales GFA…

China Property - Likely Turning Point for Shenzhen?

China property sector, and within it mainly the residential sector (i.e. new developments), are an important source of demand for commodities. One of the main indicators to watch is the new starts Gross Floor Area (new starts GFA). This is a short discussion note on what we expect to happen to 'commercial residential' new starts GFA in China for 2016-2020, based on the analysis of historical data on new home sales, prices, completions, new starts and land sales. Latest data indicates a new…

China property sector, and within it mainly the residential sector (i.e. new developments), are an important source of demand for commodities. One of the main indicators to watch is the new starts Gross Floor Area (new starts GFA). This is a short discussion note on what we expect to happen to 'commercial residential' new starts GFA in China for 2016-2020, based on the analysis of historical data on new home sales, prices, completions, new starts and land sales. Latest data indicates a new…

Projecting Residential New Starts in China

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

We all intuitively understand the concept of economic growth and keeping current with debt. But where so many commentators continue to proclaim China’s growth as being relatively strong, we feel compelled to disagree. It is not relatively strong compared with debt. The mirror image of the boon in credit for banks in China over the past several years is a high level of liabilities at the corporate level. If these same companies are not seeing higher growth, there is no way to keep pace with…

We all intuitively understand the concept of economic growth and keeping current with debt. But where so many commentators continue to proclaim China’s growth as being relatively strong, we feel compelled to disagree. It is not relatively strong compared with debt. The mirror image of the boon in credit for banks in China over the past several years is a high level of liabilities at the corporate level. If these same companies are not seeing higher growth, there is no way to keep pace with…

China - Growth Must Be Fantastic to Support Loan Payments

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

BOC Aviation (BOCA) shares closed flat on the first day of trading and have since drifted 7% lower. We've been following the developments in the IPO for a few months now and we weren't exactly gung-ho on the valuations at which it was being listed (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/boc-aviation-ipo-running-low-on-fuel" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:3824">BOC Aviation IPO - Running Low on Fuel</a>). We have always maintained that it is a good company, hence, as the current downtrend continues, the shares are bound to become attractive to long term holders once they reach levels closer to their global…

BOC Aviation (BOCA) shares closed flat on the first day of trading and have since drifted 7% lower. We've been following the developments in the IPO for a few months now and we weren't exactly gung-ho on the valuations at which it was being listed (see BOC Aviation IPO - Running Low on Fuel). We have always maintained that it is a good company, hence, as the current downtrend continues, the shares are bound to become attractive to long term holders once they reach levels closer to their global…

BOC Aviation - As Stabilization Ends, How Low Is Too Low?

China

Bank of China Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, foreign currency transaction, fund settlement, and other services. Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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Bank of China (601988 CH)

A Strange Thing Happened on the Way to the CNY/CNH Option

A strange thing has happened to the value of CNY/CNH options and NDF pricing. Despite the increased concern over the RMB, the spread between the...

Christopher Balding

China Property - Likely Turning Point for Shenzhen?

In the recent cycle, Shenzhen has been outperforming all other cities in China on house price growth at +59% year-on-year in May according to...

Robert Ciemniak

Projecting Residential New Starts in China

China property sector, and within it mainly the residential sector (i.e. new developments), are an important source of demand for commodities. One...

Robert Ciemniak

China - Growth Must Be Fantastic to Support Loan Payments

We all intuitively understand the concept of economic growth and keeping current with debt. But where so many commentators continue to proclaim...

Daniel Tabbush

BOC Aviation - As Stabilization Ends, How Low Is Too Low?

BOC Aviation (BOCA) shares closed flat on the first day of trading and have since drifted 7% lower. We've been following the developments in the...

Sumeet Singh

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