Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies, BBSP Asia

Federico D'Inca

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies

BBSP Asia

Sony Financial Group / Technical Analysis

Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) in terms of Relative Value vs MXAP • HSCEI/MXAP ratio is moving in a range pattern. Therefore downgrade HSCEI from increase exposure to hold. While HSI/MXAP ratio remains above a trend line support (preference for a tactical HSI outperformance over HSCEI). • Keep “overweight” position on HSI, Nikkei, ASX and TWSE. • Maintain “Hold for KOSPI and Nifty vs MXAPShould you have any questions and wish to speak with one of our analysts, please don’t hesitate to…

Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) in terms of Relative Value vs MXAP • HSCEI/MXAP ratio is moving in a range pattern. Therefore downgrade HSCEI from increase exposure to hold. While HSI/MXAP ratio remains above a trend line support (preference for a tactical HSI outperformance over HSCEI). • Keep “overweight” position on HSI, Nikkei, ASX and TWSE. • Maintain “Hold for KOSPI and Nifty vs MXAPShould you have any questions and wish to speak with one of our analysts, please don’t hesitate to…

BBSP Equity Asia Weekly Research 10th January 2018

China, Emerging Markets

Ryan Soh 苏祥发

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

A full translation of an article measuring the progress of deleveraging from a People's Bank of China mouthpiece website at the end of last month yields interesting results for those otherwise used to relying on intermediaries for partial summaries and interpretations.The article summarises the initial results obtained from deleveraging, acknowledges the unbalanced structure of enterprise debt, sees deleveraging as an opportunity for reform of state-owned enterprises, and contemplates the creation of a debt-to-equity swap market by 'qualified implementation agencies'. The full translation is included as an attachment.

A full translation of an article measuring the progress of deleveraging from a People's Bank of China mouthpiece website at the end of last month yields interesting results for those otherwise used to relying on intermediaries for partial summaries and interpretations.The article summarises the initial results obtained from deleveraging, acknowledges the unbalanced structure of enterprise debt, sees deleveraging as an opportunity for reform of state-owned enterprises, and contemplates the creation of a debt-to-equity swap market by 'qualified implementation agencies'. The full translation is included as an attachment.  

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

* Fundamentals at Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) [SCBHK] have improved over the past several years. However, SCBHK has aggressively pulled on various non-core, low quality sources of revenue in order to buoy Standard Chartered’s (2888.HK/STAN.LN) profits  - making them look better than they otherwise would have.* There is some strain on SCBHK’s capital position. Our burn-down analysis suggests that SCBHK is already close to the 2019 Basel III floor level for Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital. As such, on top of concerns over IFRS 9, Basel III/IV, and regulatory penalties - Standard Chartered may need to worry about capital at risk in its Hong Kong franchise prior to re-instituting a dividend.

* Fundamentals at Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) [SCBHK] have improved over the past several years. However, SCBHK has aggressively pulled on various non-core, low quality sources of revenue in order to buoy Standard Chartered’s (2888.HK/STAN.LN) profits  - making them look better than they otherwise would have.* There is some strain on SCBHK’s capital position. Our burn-down analysis suggests that SCBHK is already close to the 2019 Basel III floor level for Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital. As such, on top of concerns over IFRS 9, Basel III/IV, and regulatory penalties - Standard Chartered may need to worry about capital at risk in its Hong Kong franchise prior to re-instituting a dividend.  

Standard Chartered (Hong Kong) – A Messy Flagship

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

We spoke to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22689" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22689:1">BOC Aviation (2588 HK)</a> last week and came away impressed. In our view, the company offers relatively low-risk, diversified exposure to Asia's burgeoning tourism sector, and its 4% yield makes it attractive to investors seeking income (while avoiding the volatility often shown by the airlines). Our BOCA contact also mentioned, as a side note, that the company has begun increasing its (admittedly limited) exposure to air cargo specialists, as they believe the worst is over for…

We spoke to BOC Aviation (2588 HK) last week and came away impressed. In our view, the company offers relatively low-risk, diversified exposure to Asia's burgeoning tourism sector, and its 4% yield makes it attractive to investors seeking income (while avoiding the volatility often shown by the airlines). Our BOCA contact also mentioned, as a side note, that the company has begun increasing its (admittedly limited) exposure to air cargo specialists, as they believe the worst is over for…

Conference Call with BOC Aviation: Low-Risk Exposure to Growing Asian Tourism Demand

China

Bank of China Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, foreign currency transaction, fund settlement, and other services. Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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Bank of China (601988 CH)

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight EM

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and...

Vermilion Research

BBSP Equity Asia Weekly Research 10th January 2018

Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) in terms of Relative Value vs MXAP• HSCEI/MXAP ratio is moving in a range pattern. Therefore downgrade...

BBSP Asia

Deleveraging in China: A Translation

A full translation of an article measuring the progress of deleveraging from a People's Bank of China mouthpiece website at the end of last month...

Ryan Soh 苏祥发

Standard Chartered (Hong Kong) – A Messy Flagship

* Fundamentals at Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) [SCBHK] have improved over the past several years. However, SCBHK has aggressively pulled on...

Thomas J. Monaco

Conference Call with BOC Aviation: Low-Risk Exposure to Growing Asian Tourism Demand

We spoke to BOC Aviation (2588 HK) last week and came away impressed. In our view, the company offers relatively low-risk, diversified exposure to...

Daniel Hellberg

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