Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.</li>
<li>The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.</li>
<li>Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for 2 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.</li>
</ul>


An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for 2 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.


Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Caixin reported on Wednesday that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> has shut down community-group service (Meituan Select) in Beijing following news that the company plans to shut down operations in loss-making cities.</li>
<li>Community-Group buying (CGB) became popular in China in 2020 and Meituan entered the market in 3Q2020 and continues to spend heavily on the biz.</li>
<li>The market became heavily competitive in the form of price war, which attracted regulatory scrutiny and led to large players like Alibaba and JD.com opting out of the market. </li>
</ul>


Caixin reported on Wednesday that Meituan (3690 HK) has shut down community-group service (Meituan Select) in Beijing following news that the company plans to shut down operations in loss-making cities.
Community-Group buying (CGB) became popular in China in 2020 and Meituan entered the market in 3Q2020 and continues to spend heavily on the biz.
The market became heavily competitive in the form of price war, which attracted regulatory scrutiny and led to large players like Alibaba and JD.com opting out of the market. 


Meituan Shuts Community Group Buying in Beijing – A Late Realisation That Profits Are Not Easy

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Zhihu Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhihu-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32185:1" rel="noopener">Zhihu Technology (ZH US)</a> raised around US$106m via a dual primary listing in Hong Kong. </li>
<li>Unlike all the prior dual primary/secondary listings which have been done via offering either only primary or a mix of primary+secondary shares, Zhihu’s offering will consist of only secondary shares.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the demand and trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Zhihu Technology (ZH US) raised around US$106m via a dual primary listing in Hong Kong. 
Unlike all the prior dual primary/secondary listings which have been done via offering either only primary or a mix of primary+secondary shares, Zhihu’s offering will consist of only secondary shares.
In this note, we'll talk about the demand and trading dynamics.


Zhihu HK Secondary Listing Trading - Delivered the Correction but Still Set for the Worst Debut Yet

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Superapp <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> made its public debut on the Indonesian Stock Exchange on 11th April. The company set the final IPO price at IDR338 per share.  </li>
<li>GoTo’s shares surged nearly 23% to IDR416 a piece on the open, boosting the company’s market cap to more than IDR497trn.</li>
<li>GoTo's share price has continued to slide and our SOTP valuation suggests that there is further downside.</li>
</ul>


Superapp GoTo (GOTO IJ) made its public debut on the Indonesian Stock Exchange on 11th April. The company set the final IPO price at IDR338 per share.  
GoTo’s shares surged nearly 23% to IDR416 a piece on the open, boosting the company’s market cap to more than IDR497trn.
GoTo's share price has continued to slide and our SOTP valuation suggests that there is further downside.


GoTo IPO: Shares Are Still Overvalued and There Is Further Downside

<ul>
<li>Tencent’s increase in investment acquisition activity has coincided with a general weakness in equity prices and valuation levels.</li>
<li>Tencent management’s assessment of the fair value of its listed investee holdings, of RMB982.8bn on 31 December 2021, equates to roughly 27.4% of its market cap.</li>
<li>The market value of Tencent’s investee holdings in more-mature, Chinese-listed, internet-orientated holdings equates to roughly 9% of its current market cap.</li>
</ul>


Tencent’s increase in investment acquisition activity has coincided with a general weakness in equity prices and valuation levels.
Tencent management’s assessment of the fair value of its listed investee holdings, of RMB982.8bn on 31 December 2021, equates to roughly 27.4% of its market cap.
The market value of Tencent’s investee holdings in more-mature, Chinese-listed, internet-orientated holdings equates to roughly 9% of its current market cap.


Tencent: Investments up as Valuations Drop, Room for Another Significant Special in Specie Dividend

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

Screening for GEMs: May 2022

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

Meituan Shuts Community Group Buying in Beijing – A Late Realisation That Profits Are Not Easy

Meituan has shut down community-group service in Beijing as the market has become heavily competitive, which also attracted regulatory scrutiny....

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Zhihu HK Secondary Listing Trading - Delivered the Correction but Still Set for the Worst Debut Yet

Zhihu Technology (ZH US) raised around US$106m via a dual primary listing in Hong Kong. In this note we talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

GoTo IPO: Shares Are Still Overvalued and There Is Further Downside

GoTo’s shares surged nearly 23% to IDR416 a piece on the open, however, share price has continued to slide and our SOTP valuation suggests that...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Tencent: Investments up as Valuations Drop, Room for Another Significant Special in Specie Dividend

In this insight, we analyse Tencent’s recent investment activity and notable investee holdings to evaluate the potential for another meaningful...

Wium Malan, CFA

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