Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>As a forensic accountant doing equity research, I strive to publish differentiated insights that augment rather than replace the traditional research feed of institutional investors</li>
<li>Fraud risks, aggressive revenue recognition, balance sheet health, quality of earnings and accounting policy changes underpinned a significant majority of my research</li>
<li>In this Insight, I will do a breakdown of my performance in the past half a year including a recap, key statistics and top insight highlights</li>
</ul>


As a forensic accountant doing equity research, I strive to publish differentiated insights that augment rather than replace the traditional research feed of institutional investors
Fraud risks, aggressive revenue recognition, balance sheet health, quality of earnings and accounting policy changes underpinned a significant majority of my research
In this Insight, I will do a breakdown of my performance in the past half a year including a recap, key statistics and top insight highlights


2021 Year in Review - Forensic Accounting in Equity Research

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In December, Tencent announced that its board of directors has resolved to declare a special dividend by way of a distribution of its Class A ordinary shares of JD.com. </li>
<li>This seems to be in line with regulators’ aim of bringing down walled gardens; however, we think these steps are aimed more towards restructuring Tencent’s fintech business.</li>
<li>Tencent’s fintech arm has been benefitting from its partnerships with JD.com and Pinduoduo which has helped face competition from closest rival AliPay.</li>
</ul>


In December, Tencent announced that its board of directors has resolved to declare a special dividend by way of a distribution of its Class A ordinary shares of JD.com. 
This seems to be in line with regulators’ aim of bringing down walled gardens; however, we think these steps are aimed more towards restructuring Tencent’s fintech business.
Tencent’s fintech arm has been benefitting from its partnerships with JD.com and Pinduoduo which has helped face competition from closest rival AliPay.


Tencent: Is More Fintech Restructuring On Its Way?

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<ul>
<li>
 Sea Sale: Tencent sold 14.5 mn shares in Sea, raising approximately USD 3 bn in cash – reducing Tencent’s position in Sea from 21.3% to 18.7%;   </li>
<li>
 Not A Surprise: Given mainland China’s crackdown on the country’s largest internet companies, Tencent’s disposal of Sea shares is not a surprise; and  </li>
<li>
 Other Stake Sales To Follow: Further divestitures of major stakes are likely if Tencent wishes to remain on the right side of mainland China’s Communist Party.    </li>
</ul>



 Sea Sale: Tencent sold 14.5 mn shares in Sea, raising approximately USD 3 bn in cash – reducing Tencent’s position in Sea from 21.3% to 18.7%;   

 Not A Surprise: Given mainland China’s crackdown on the country’s largest internet companies, Tencent’s disposal of Sea shares is not a surprise; and  

 Other Stake Sales To Follow: Further divestitures of major stakes are likely if Tencent wishes to remain on the right side of mainland China’s Communist Party.    


Tencent Holdings – From Sea To Shining Sea

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

<ul>
<li>With life getting back to the usual ways following changes due to COVID-19, the Japanese cosmetics sector was expected to experience an uplift in earnings, mainly through inbound demand.</li>
<li>However, the extension of China’s common prosperity crackdowns to the live-streaming e-commerce business, could more than offset a possible recovery in inbound demand.</li>
<li>Thus, we fear that there is additional downside risk to Japanese cosmetics multiples in the short term.</li>
</ul>


With life getting back to the usual ways following changes due to COVID-19, the Japanese cosmetics sector was expected to experience an uplift in earnings, mainly through inbound demand.
However, the extension of China’s common prosperity crackdowns to the live-streaming e-commerce business, could more than offset a possible recovery in inbound demand.
Thus, we fear that there is additional downside risk to Japanese cosmetics multiples in the short term.


Crackdown on Live-Streaming E-Commerce Could Derail The Recovery of Japanese Cosmetics

<ul>
<li>
Special Dividend: On December 23, 2021, Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] announced that it is planning to distribute USD 16.3 bn in JD.com (JD.US) [JD] Class A shares; </li>
<li>
Not A Surprise:Given mainland China’s crackdown on the country’s largest internet companies, Tencent’s disposal of JD shares is not a surprise; and</li>
<li>
Other Stake Sales To Follow: Further divestitures of major stakes are likely if Tencent wishes to remain on the right side of mainland China’s Communist Party.  </li>
</ul>



Special Dividend: On December 23, 2021, Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] announced that it is planning to distribute USD 16.3 bn in JD.com (JD.US) [JD] Class A shares; 

Not A Surprise:Given mainland China’s crackdown on the country’s largest internet companies, Tencent’s disposal of JD shares is not a surprise; and

Other Stake Sales To Follow: Further divestitures of major stakes are likely if Tencent wishes to remain on the right side of mainland China’s Communist Party.  


China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

2021 Year in Review - Forensic Accounting in Equity Research

As a forensic accountant doing equity research, I strive to publish differentiated insights that augment investment research. I look back at 2021's...

Jason Yap, CFA

Tencent: Is More Fintech Restructuring On Its Way?

Partnerships with domestic leaders in other verticals have helped Tencent's Fintech biz take on competition from AliPay. We think there will be...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Tencent Holdings – From Sea To Shining Sea

TENCENT: Tencent sold 14.5 mn shares in Sea, raising USD 3 bn and reducing its position from 21.3% to 18.7%, Other stake sales will follow.

Thomas J. Monaco

Crackdown on Live-Streaming E-Commerce Could Derail The Recovery of Japanese Cosmetics

Valuation multiples of Japanese cosmetics makers more than doubled during the last 6-7 years alongside the growth driven by the China expansion and...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Tencent Holdings – Bottom Ticking

TENCENT: Tencent announced that it is planning to distribute USD 16.3 bn in JD shares. Given mainland China’s crackdown on Tencent, the disposal is...

Thomas J. Monaco

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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