Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

As the US-listed Chinese tech firms such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27255:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music (TME US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vipshop-holdings-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1088:1" rel="noopener">Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joyy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:285:1" rel="noopener">JOYY (YY US)</a> rush for secondary listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange amidst the uncertainty surrounding the US policy framework, in this insight, we analyse the ADR/HKEX discount/premium behaviour of the 10 most recent secondary listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

As the US-listed Chinese tech firms such as Bilibili Inc (BILI US), Tencent Music (TME US), Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US), and JOYY (YY US) rush for secondary listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange amidst the uncertainty surrounding the US policy framework, in this insight, we analyse the ADR/HKEX discount/premium behaviour of the 10 most recent secondary listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

An Analysis of ADR/HKEX Discount Behavior As The US Listed Chinese Tech Rush To Hong Kong

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Kuaishou Technology / Equity Capital Markets

Kuaishou Technology (KT) is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by Tencent, Sequoia China, Baidu, DST Global, Boyu Capital, Temasek and others.As of six months ended Jun 2020, it had 302m daily active users (DAUs), who spent 85 mins on average on the app every day. It also had 776m monthly active users (MAUs) and total e-commerce GMV of RMB109.6bn. On an average 1.1bn short videos were uploaded on its app during 1H20.As per iResearch, Kuaishou was globally the largest live streaming platform by gross billings from virtual gifting and average live streaming MPUs, the second largest short video platform by average DAUs, and the second largest live streaming e-commerce platform by GMV, over six months ended June 30, 2020.I have covered various aspects of the company’s performance in my previous notes: <ul>
<li> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-the-positives-hot-segment-fast-growth" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Hot Segment, fast growth</a>
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-the-negatives-ample-doubts-remain" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Ample Doubts Remain</a></li>
</ul>In this note, I’ll undertake a peer comparison, provide earnings forecasts and talk about valuations.

Kuaishou Technology (KT) is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by Tencent, Sequoia China, Baidu, DST Global, Boyu Capital, Temasek and others.As of six months ended Jun 2020, it had 302m daily active users (DAUs), who spent 85 mins on average on the app every day. It also had 776m monthly active users (MAUs) and total e-commerce GMV of RMB109.6bn. On an average 1.1bn short videos were uploaded on its app during 1H20.As per iResearch, Kuaishou was globally the largest live streaming platform by gross billings from virtual gifting and average live streaming MPUs, the second largest short video platform by average DAUs, and the second largest live streaming e-commerce platform by GMV, over six months ended June 30, 2020.I have covered various aspects of the company’s performance in my previous notes: 
 Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Hot Segment, fast growth

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Ample Doubts Remain
In this note, I’ll undertake a peer comparison, provide earnings forecasts and talk about valuations. 

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul class="">
<li>China housing Sales data has recovered strongly since May. Housing sales area grew by 2 digits yoy in October and November.</li>
<li>KE’s revenue increased by 71% yoy in 3Q20. We are not concerned about the pre-IPO margin decline.</li>
<li>We believe the stock has an upside of 14%~22 for the end of 2021.</li>
</ul>


China housing Sales data has recovered strongly since May. Housing sales area grew by 2 digits yoy in October and November.
KE’s revenue increased by 71% yoy in 3Q20. We are not concerned about the pre-IPO margin decline.
We believe the stock has an upside of 14%~22 for the end of 2021.


KE (BEKE): Riding on Housing Surge in China

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) should announce the results of the March 2021 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes on 19 February. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 5 March.We expect the March 21 review for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> to have only 1 deletion, though there is a low probability of another set of changes. Post <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health (6618 HK)</a>'s Fast Entry into the index, there needs to be one deletion at the March review. At the current time, the lowest ranked index constituent is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petrochina-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:262:1" rel="noopener">Petrochina Co Ltd H (857 HK)</a> and the stock should be deleted at the March review.There was a medium probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK)</a> being included in the index. That has now become a low probability event post <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health (6618 HK)</a>'s inclusion in the index. If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK)</a> is included in the index, then <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hengan-intl-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29:1" rel="noopener">Hengan Intl Group (1044 HK)</a> could be deleted.The potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> over the next 6 months will also have serious implications for the dividend futures expiring in 2021, 2022 and beyond.

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) should announce the results of the March 2021 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes on 19 February. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 5 March.We expect the March 21 review for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) to have only 1 deletion, though there is a low probability of another set of changes. Post JD Health (6618 HK)'s Fast Entry into the index, there needs to be one deletion at the March review. At the current time, the lowest ranked index constituent is Petrochina Co Ltd H (857 HK) and the stock should be deleted at the March review.There was a medium probability of Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK) being included in the index. That has now become a low probability event post JD Health (6618 HK)'s inclusion in the index. If Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK) is included in the index, then Hengan Intl Group (1044 HK) could be deleted.The potential changes to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) over the next 6 months will also have serious implications for the dividend futures expiring in 2021, 2022 and beyond.

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: One Deletion For Sure, Could Be One More Change

<ul class="">
<li>Alibaba (BABA) is selling BigBasket.com to Tata Group.</li>
<li>It is rumored that Alibaba (BABA) will dismiss the Xiami Music team.</li>
<li>Xiaomi (1810 HK) issued 1 billion shares at the price of HK$23.70.</li>
<li>Trip.com (TCOM)’s revenue decreased by 48% yoy in 3Q20.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba (BABA) is selling BigBasket.com to Tata Group.
It is rumored that Alibaba (BABA) will dismiss the Xiami Music team.
Xiaomi (1810 HK) issued 1 billion shares at the price of HK$23.70.
Trip.com (TCOM)’s revenue decreased by 48% yoy in 3Q20.


China Internet Weekly (7Dec2020): Alibaba Withdrawing from India and Domestic Music Market

China

Tencent Music Entertainment operates an online music entertainment platform in China. The Company offers platform that comprises of online music, recording, music-centric live streaming enabling users to discover, listen, sing, watch, perform, and socialize music.

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Tencent Music (TME US)

An Analysis of ADR/HKEX Discount Behavior As The US Listed Chinese Tech Rush To Hong Kong

As the US-listed Chinese tech firms rush for secondary listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, we analyse the ADR/HKEX discount behaviour of the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

Kuaishou is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by Tencent,...

Sumeet Singh

KE (BEKE): Riding on Housing Surge in China

China housing Sales data has recovered strongly since May. We are not concerned about KE's pre-IPO margin decline. We believe the stock has an...

Ming Lu

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: One Deletion For Sure, Could Be One More Change

Following JD Health's Fast Entry into the HSCEI, PetroChina is a high probability deletion in March. There is a low probability of Country Garden...

Brian Freitas

China Internet Weekly (7Dec2020): Alibaba Withdrawing from India and Domestic Music Market

Alibaba (BABA) are selling BigBasket.com to Tata Group in India and will dismiss Xiami Music in China. Xiaomi will issue new shares.

Ming Lu

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