ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sariguna-primatirta-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33584:1" rel="noopener">Sariguna Primatirta Tbk PT (CLEO IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/global-digital-niaga-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34881:1" rel="noopener">Global Digital Niaga (BELI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prodia-widyahusada" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23663:1" rel="noopener">Prodia (PRDA IJ)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a>. </li>
<li>There were also insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">OCBC (OCBC SP)</a>, the bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinarmas-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1144:1" rel="noopener">Sinarmas Land (SML SP)</a> from the Widjaja Family, and Southern Alliance Mining.</li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The past week saw insights on Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ), Sariguna Primatirta Tbk PT (CLEO IJ), Global Digital Niaga (BELI IJ), Prodia (PRDA IJ), and Berli Jucker (BJC TB). 
There were also insights on Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) and OCBC (OCBC SP), the bid for Sinarmas Land (SML SP) from the Widjaja Family, and Southern Alliance Mining.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom, from across Southeast Asia.


The Lebaran Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - MAPI, CLEO, and Berli Jucker

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa</a> reported a solid finish to the year with positive sequential growth in 4Q2024, although it was impacted by the delayed iPhone 16 launch, which reduced its peak quarter.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/map-aktif-adiperkasa-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27291:1" rel="noopener">MAP Aktif Adiperkasa</a> was the core growth driver, and its 4Q2024 was more seasonally strong at 28% of FY2024, with its regional expansion also helping to drive growth in FY2024. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa</a> remains a core retail proxy for Indonesia, with an increasing regional edge, and stronger growth prospects for FY2025. Valuations look extremely attractive on 9.9x FY2025E PER.</li>
</ul>



Mitra Adiperkasa reported a solid finish to the year with positive sequential growth in 4Q2024, although it was impacted by the delayed iPhone 16 launch, which reduced its peak quarter.

MAP Aktif Adiperkasa was the core growth driver, and its 4Q2024 was more seasonally strong at 28% of FY2024, with its regional expansion also helping to drive growth in FY2024. 

Mitra Adiperkasa remains a core retail proxy for Indonesia, with an increasing regional edge, and stronger growth prospects for FY2025. Valuations look extremely attractive on 9.9x FY2025E PER.


Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Parting Clouds Ahead

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>The largest passive flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dayamitra-telekomunikasi-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34741:1" rel="noopener">Dayamitra Telekomunikasi</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/map-aktif-adiperkasa-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27291:1" rel="noopener">MAP Aktif Adiperkasa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ciputra-development-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5513:1" rel="noopener">Ciputra Development</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata</a>.</li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.
The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Central Asia, Indosat, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Dayamitra Telekomunikasi, MAP Aktif Adiperkasa, Bank Mandiri Persero, Ciputra Development and XL Axiata.
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index January rebalance ended 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 4 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.</li>
<li>Nearly all stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index January rebalance ended 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 4 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
Nearly all stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

<ul>
<li>A recent meeting with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa</a> confirmed that management remains confident about a strong finish to the year, despite a lingering drag from Starbucks even with the boycott being lifted.</li>
<li>MAPI continues to expand its store network with 650 new stores targeted this year, with 400 under <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/map-aktif-adiperkasa-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27291:1" rel="noopener">MAP Aktif</a> and ongoing regional expansion. MAPI's omnichannel strategy is also driving growth. </li>
<li>Inventory levels are higher due to higher store count and ahead of various festive seasons. Inditex brands continue to drive fashion with MAPA showing the fastest growth. Valuations remain attractive. </li>
</ul>


A recent meeting with Mitra Adiperkasa confirmed that management remains confident about a strong finish to the year, despite a lingering drag from Starbucks even with the boycott being lifted.
MAPI continues to expand its store network with 650 new stores targeted this year, with 400 under MAP Aktif and ongoing regional expansion. MAPI's omnichannel strategy is also driving growth. 
Inventory levels are higher due to higher store count and ahead of various festive seasons. Inditex brands continue to drive fashion with MAPA showing the fastest growth. Valuations remain attractive. 


Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Strong Finisher

Indonesia

PT MAP Aktif Adiperkasa Tbk retails sporting goods. The Company operates an online portal that offers a wide range boots, shoes, sandals, shorts, caps, hoodies, and accessories. Map Aktif Adiperkasa serves customers in Indonesia.

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MAP Aktif Adiperkasa PT (MAPA IJ)

The Lebaran Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - MAPI, CLEO, and Berli Jucker

The past week saw insights on Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ), Sariguna Primatirta Tbk PT (CLEO IJ), Global Digital Niaga (BELI IJ), Prodia (PRDA IJ),...

Angus Mackintosh

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Parting Clouds Ahead

Mitra Adiperkasa remains a core retail proxy for Indonesia, with an increasing regional edge, and stronger growth prospects for FY2025. Valuations...

Angus Mackintosh

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30, and 3 each for LQ45 and IDX80 indices to be implemented at the close 31 Jan. There are stocks with...

Brian Freitas

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have been outperforming the deletes. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Strong Finisher

A recent meeting with Mitra Adiperkasa confirmed that management remains confident about a strong finish to the year, driven by s strong seasonal...

Angus Mackintosh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Lebaran Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - MAPI, CLEO, and Berli Jucker

The past week saw insights on Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ), Sariguna Primatirta Tbk PT (CLEO IJ), Global Digital Niaga (BELI IJ), Prodia (PRDA IJ),...

Angus Mackintosh

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Parting Clouds Ahead

Mitra Adiperkasa remains a core retail proxy for Indonesia, with an increasing regional edge, and stronger growth prospects for FY2025. Valuations...

Angus Mackintosh

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30, and 3 each for LQ45 and IDX80 indices to be implemented at the close 31 Jan. There are stocks with...

Brian Freitas

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have been outperforming the deletes. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Strong Finisher

A recent meeting with Mitra Adiperkasa confirmed that management remains confident about a strong finish to the year, driven by s strong seasonal...

Angus Mackintosh

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation