HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BeiGene’s 25Q2 performance beat expectations. The main driver was still BRUKINSA. The growth rate of tislelizumab was surprising.Sales of tislelizumab in international market is expected to be reflected in 25H2.</li>
<li>BeiGene's turnaround from losses to profits has entered the countdown.However, investors may not be happy with the net profit margin brought by single revenue driver Brukinsa based on our calculation.</li>
<li>There’s no next blockbuster that can drive BeiGene to a big step forward.This is why the market is reluctant to offer higher valuation, despite current high growth in product revenue.</li>
</ul>


BeiGene’s 25Q2 performance beat expectations. The main driver was still BRUKINSA. The growth rate of tislelizumab was surprising.Sales of tislelizumab in international market is expected to be reflected in 25H2.
BeiGene's turnaround from losses to profits has entered the countdown.However, investors may not be happy with the net profit margin brought by single revenue driver Brukinsa based on our calculation.
There’s no next blockbuster that can drive BeiGene to a big step forward.This is why the market is reluctant to offer higher valuation, despite current high growth in product revenue.


BeiGene (6160.HK/​ONC US) 25Q2 - The High Growth of BRUKINSA May Not Bring High Valuation

<ul>
<li>Trump threatened to levy tariffs on pharmaceuticals, but the BD model of Chinese innovative drugs will be less affected, because the essence is licensing-out model, not physical drug exports.</li>
<li>The long-awaited national VBP of biosimilar drugs has moved from policy incubation period to substantive operation stage, which is expected to change the market structure after big price reduction.</li>
<li>BeiGene’s 25Q2 results beat expectations. Reasonable market value is about US$40-42.4 billion. However, the market is reluctant to offer higher valuation due to the concerns on the outlook of BeiGene. </li>
</ul>


Trump threatened to levy tariffs on pharmaceuticals, but the BD model of Chinese innovative drugs will be less affected, because the essence is licensing-out model, not physical drug exports.
The long-awaited national VBP of biosimilar drugs has moved from policy incubation period to substantive operation stage, which is expected to change the market structure after big price reduction.
BeiGene’s 25Q2 results beat expectations. Reasonable market value is about US$40-42.4 billion. However, the market is reluctant to offer higher valuation due to the concerns on the outlook of BeiGene. 


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.10)-Trump Plans Drug Tariff, Biosimilar VBP, BeiGene's Headwind in 25Q2

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.
$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Index is the benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in June 2025.</li>
<li>The index changes are expected to be confirmed on 16th May 2025.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index is the benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.
In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in June 2025.
The index changes are expected to be confirmed on 16th May 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Jun25: Beigene Is Our Top Pick

<ul>
<li>Trump announced actions to reduce regulatory barriers to domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing, with the core intention to open regulatory "green light" for manufacturing in US, which will change the industry pattern.</li>
<li>With the promotion of VBP and the implementation of medical insurance price comparison system, there’s a trend of accelerated pharmacies closures. The entire pharmacy industry will face performance headwinds.</li>
<li>BeiGene’s BRUKINSA recorded negative QoQ growth in 25Q1, which seems below expectations. However, this is temporary headwinds, since the 2025 full-year revenue guidance remains unchanged. Bottom-line valuation  is US$24.5-26.5 billion.</li>
</ul>


Trump announced actions to reduce regulatory barriers to domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing, with the core intention to open regulatory "green light" for manufacturing in US, which will change the industry pattern.
With the promotion of VBP and the implementation of medical insurance price comparison system, there’s a trend of accelerated pharmacies closures. The entire pharmacy industry will face performance headwinds.
BeiGene’s BRUKINSA recorded negative QoQ growth in 25Q1, which seems below expectations. However, this is temporary headwinds, since the 2025 full-year revenue guidance remains unchanged. Bottom-line valuation  is US$24.5-26.5 billion.


China Healthcare Weekly (May11)-Trump's Executive Order, Pharmacy's Risks, BeiGene 25Q1 Result Is Ok

China

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

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BeiGene (6160 HK)

BeiGene (6160.HK/ONC US) 25Q2 - The High Growth of BRUKINSA May Not Bring High Valuation

BeiGene's strong Q2 growth driven by BRUKINSA, but concerns remain about overreliance on single revenue driver/lack of next blockbuster for future...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.10)-Trump Plans Drug Tariff, Biosimilar VBP, BeiGene's Headwind in 25Q2

Trump's threat of tariffs on drugs won't impact China innovative drug BD deals. Biosimilar VBP is expected to reshape market. BeiGene released...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Continue Adding Exposure to China; $ACWI Short-Term Supports for this pullback: $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. Pullbacks = buy opportunities,...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Jun25: Beigene Is Our Top Pick

We expect the ADDs/DELs and indicative weights for the Hang Seng Index to be publicly confirmed on Friday 16th May 2025. This is a good time to...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

China Healthcare Weekly (May11)-Trump's Executive Order, Pharmacy's Risks, BeiGene 25Q1 Result Is Ok

Trump aims to boost US drug manufacturing by reducing regulatory barriers, leading to industry changes. VBP will accelerate pharmacy closures....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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BeiGene (6160.HK/​ONC US) 25Q2 - The High Growth of BRUKINSA May Not Bring High Valuation

​BeiGene's strong Q2 growth driven by BRUKINSA, but concerns remain about overreliance on single revenue driver/lack of next blockbuster for future...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.10)-Trump Plans Drug Tariff, Biosimilar VBP, BeiGene's Headwind in 25Q2

​Trump's threat of tariffs on drugs won't impact China innovative drug BD deals. Biosimilar VBP is expected to reshape market. BeiGene released...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Continue Adding Exposure to China; $ACWI Short-Term Supports for this pullback: $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. Pullbacks = buy opportunities,...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Jun25: Beigene Is Our Top Pick

We expect the ADDs/DELs and indicative weights for the Hang Seng Index to be publicly confirmed on Friday 16th May 2025. This is a good time to...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

China Healthcare Weekly (May11)-Trump's Executive Order, Pharmacy's Risks, BeiGene 25Q1 Result Is Ok

​Trump aims to boost US drug manufacturing by reducing regulatory barriers, leading to industry changes. VBP will accelerate pharmacy closures....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (6160.HK/ONC US) 25Q2 - The High Growth of BRUKINSA May Not Bring High Valuation

BeiGene's strong Q2 growth driven by BRUKINSA, but concerns remain about overreliance on single revenue driver/lack of next blockbuster for future...

Trump's threat of tariffs on drugs won't impact China innovative drug BD deals. Biosimilar VBP is expected to reshape market. BeiGene released...

Trump aims to boost US drug manufacturing by reducing regulatory barriers, leading to industry changes. VBP will accelerate pharmacy closures....