HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech C / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The national centralized procurement of high-value medical consumables for intraocular lens (IOL) and medical consumables related to sports medicine released results, with lower than expected price reductions. </li>
<li>Despite anti-corruption campaign, the business/profit model validation process of Chinese Biotech has not slowed down. There’s a chance to see Chinese Biotech turn losses into profits in 2024-2025.</li>
<li>Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech (688298 CH) once brought considerable returns to investors, but now the beautiful story is over.After deletion from CSI Medical Service Index, share price could remain weak.</li>
</ul>


The national centralized procurement of high-value medical consumables for intraocular lens (IOL) and medical consumables related to sports medicine released results, with lower than expected price reductions. 
Despite anti-corruption campaign, the business/profit model validation process of Chinese Biotech has not slowed down. There’s a chance to see Chinese Biotech turn losses into profits in 2024-2025.
Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech (688298 CH) once brought considerable returns to investors, but now the beautiful story is over.After deletion from CSI Medical Service Index, share price could remain weak.


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.1) - Medical Device VBP, Biotech to Breakeven Soon, Orient Gene Biotech

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Globalization and innovation are two core paths for companies’ development, but with completely different effects.Instead of rushing to go global, it’s better to calm down to focus on R&amp;D first.</li>
<li>Many domestic companies choose Me-Too strategy, which is considered a “shortcut”. However, Me-Too strategy is not always successful. We analyzed different scenarios to help investors better distinguish valuable Me-Too strategies.</li>
<li>There could be a potential short-term correction in healthcare sector. Since trading opportunities remain, rebound would come next, but stock-picking would not be the same as in the past.</li>
</ul>


Globalization and innovation are two core paths for companies’ development, but with completely different effects.Instead of rushing to go global, it’s better to calm down to focus on R&amp;D first.
Many domestic companies choose Me-Too strategy, which is considered a “shortcut”. However, Me-Too strategy is not always successful. We analyzed different scenarios to help investors better distinguish valuable Me-Too strategies.
There could be a potential short-term correction in healthcare sector. Since trading opportunities remain, rebound would come next, but stock-picking would not be the same as in the past.


China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.3)-Share Price Correction,Valuable Shortcut,Globalization Vs Innovation

<ul>
<li>The pricing of core product Envafolimab doesn’t have an advantage over competitors. Its market opportunities and profit margins are very limited if seen from both production side and sales side.</li>
<li>3DMed clearly faces financial pressure, and may not smoothly promote other pipelines. Under current market environment, it’s almost impossible to achieve substantial refinancing. The survival of 3DMed cannot be guaranteed.</li>
<li>The fundamentals of 3DMed are not strong enough to justify high valuation. Current share price is clearly overvalued.Eventually the market will return to rationality. We recommend investors offload in time.</li>
</ul>


The pricing of core product Envafolimab doesn’t have an advantage over competitors. Its market opportunities and profit margins are very limited if seen from both production side and sales side.
3DMed clearly faces financial pressure, and may not smoothly promote other pipelines. Under current market environment, it’s almost impossible to achieve substantial refinancing. The survival of 3DMed cannot be guaranteed.
The fundamentals of 3DMed are not strong enough to justify high valuation. Current share price is clearly overvalued.Eventually the market will return to rationality. We recommend investors offload in time.


3D Medicines (1244.HK) - The Bubble Will Eventually Burst

<ul>
<li>It is the time to reassess the commercialization performance and the outlook of China biotech companies, including BeiGene, Innovent, Henlus, Zai Lab, Hutchmed, Junshi, RemeGen, Innocare, Akeso. </li>
<li>We summarized the data of these biotech companies’ product revenue and profit performance to judge whether their commercialization capability is sufficient to afford production, sales teams and long-term R&amp;D activities. </li>
<li>Most China Biotech cannot be said to achieve "commercialization success", but they have showed some difference.We hope investors could have a better understanding about China biotech and make better decisions. </li>
</ul>


It is the time to reassess the commercialization performance and the outlook of China biotech companies, including BeiGene, Innovent, Henlus, Zai Lab, Hutchmed, Junshi, RemeGen, Innocare, Akeso. 
We summarized the data of these biotech companies’ product revenue and profit performance to judge whether their commercialization capability is sufficient to afford production, sales teams and long-term R&amp;D activities. 
Most China Biotech cannot be said to achieve "commercialization success", but they have showed some difference.We hope investors could have a better understanding about China biotech and make better decisions. 


China Biotech – The Commercialization Performance and The Outlook

<ul>
<li>This year's NRDL negotiations could be a turnaround. If the final result really shows a moderate price decline, it will be “a landmark event” for the innovative drug industry.</li>
<li>Starting from 23Q2, with the peak of respiratory disease/COVID-19 outbreak past, the demand for related TCM would weaken. Then, the pullback of TCM would really begin.</li>
<li>Even if biotech initially tells the story of becoming a biopharma to obtain financing, it will not be realized in the end.</li>
</ul>


This year's NRDL negotiations could be a turnaround. If the final result really shows a moderate price decline, it will be “a landmark event” for the innovative drug industry.
Starting from 23Q2, with the peak of respiratory disease/COVID-19 outbreak past, the demand for related TCM would weaken. Then, the pullback of TCM would really begin.
Even if biotech initially tells the story of becoming a biopharma to obtain financing, it will not be realized in the end.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.1) - NRDL Negotiation Turnaround, Pullback of TCM, Biotech Sales System

China

Shanghai Henlius Biotech, Inc develops and produces drugs. The Company develops and produces monoclonal antibody biosimilar drugs, bio betters, novel monoclonal antibodys, and other drugs. Shanghai Henlius Biotech throughout China.

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Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.1) - Medical Device VBP, Biotech to Breakeven Soon, Orient Gene Biotech

VBP result for intraocular lens/sports medicine consumables is better than expected.There’s a chance to see Chinese Biotech turn loss into profits...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

3D Medicines (1244.HK) - The Bubble Will Eventually Burst

3DMed's current stock price is clearly unreasonable. Its financial situation and the prospects of core product indicate that its survival issues...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Biotech – The Commercialization Performance and The Outlook

In the context of the fading dividend of medical system reform and the lack of next big variety, the previous wave of innovative drug boom is hard...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.1) - NRDL Negotiation Turnaround, Pullback of TCM, Biotech Sales System

This year's NRDL negotiation could be “a landmark event” for innovative drug industry.Pullback of TCM may really begin from 23Q2.We analyzed...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.1) - Medical Device VBP, Biotech to Breakeven Soon, Orient Gene Biotech

VBP result for intraocular lens/sports medicine consumables is better than expected.There’s a chance to see Chinese Biotech turn loss into profits...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.3)-Share Price Correction,Valuable Shortcut,Globalization Vs Innovation

Success of globalization ultimately relies on strong innovative capabilities. Here's how to distinguish valuable shortcuts - Me-Too strategy....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

3D Medicines (1244.HK) - The Bubble Will Eventually Burst

3DMed's current stock price is clearly unreasonable. Its financial situation and the prospects of core product indicate that its survival issues...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Biotech – The Commercialization Performance and The Outlook

In the context of the fading dividend of medical system reform and the lack of next big variety, the previous wave of innovative drug boom is hard...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.1) - NRDL Negotiation Turnaround, Pullback of TCM, Biotech Sales System

This year's NRDL negotiation could be “a landmark event” for innovative drug industry.Pullback of TCM may really begin from 23Q2.We analyzed...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang