Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>For the six banks under our coverage, we estimate combined net profit of Bt42bn in 3Q25E (–4.3% YoY, –7.0% QoQ).</li><li>Net interest income (NII) is expected to decline, weighed down by loan contraction and lower NIM, while non-NII should rise on investment gains and equity market recovery.</li><li>We maintain our “Neutral” sector weighting, as 3Q25E earnings are unlikely to stand out given weaker loans and NIM.</li></ul>

For the six banks under our coverage, we estimate combined net profit of Bt42bn in 3Q25E (–4.3% YoY, –7.0% QoQ).Net interest income (NII) is expected to decline, weighed down by loan contraction and lower NIM, while non-NII should rise on investment gains and equity market recovery.We maintain our “Neutral” sector weighting, as 3Q25E earnings are unlikely to stand out given weaker loans and NIM.

Banking Sector 3Q25E Profit Outlook Pressured By Loans And NIM - Neutral

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to move with upward volatility today, with the resistance at 1,300/1,316 and the support at 1,290/1,284.</li><li>US equities rebounded yesterday (S&amp;P 500 +0.48%, NASDAQ +0.92%) as markets stabilized after digesting the Fed meeting, where the Fed reaffirmed its signal of future rate cuts—a positive for both the economy and equities.</li><li>The Royal Gazette has released the Budget Act for fiscal year 2026, which will take effect on October 1.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to move with upward volatility today, with the resistance at 1,300/1,316 and the support at 1,290/1,284.US equities rebounded yesterday (S&amp;P 500 +0.48%, NASDAQ +0.92%) as markets stabilized after digesting the Fed meeting, where the Fed reaffirmed its signal of future rate cuts—a positive for both the economy and equities.The Royal Gazette has released the Budget Act for fiscal year 2026, which will take effect on October 1.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 19, 2025.

<ul><li>Asian bourses advanced, while the SET continued to edge higher on expectations of economic stimulus from the new economic team and steady fund inflows.</li><li>The index has moved closer to the key resistance at 1,284, putting it within testing range and raising the potential for a breakout.</li><li>Nevertheless, we expect the index to maintain its upward momentum toward the 1,300-point level. We recommend selective speculation.</li></ul>

Asian bourses advanced, while the SET continued to edge higher on expectations of economic stimulus from the new economic team and steady fund inflows.The index has moved closer to the key resistance at 1,284, putting it within testing range and raising the potential for a breakout.Nevertheless, we expect the index to maintain its upward momentum toward the 1,300-point level. We recommend selective speculation.

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. SEPTEMBER 11, 2025

<ul><li>The emergence of virtual banks in Thailand still faces challenges in proving their success, as traditional banks have already invested heavily in IT and developed applications with features increasingly comparable to those of virtual banks.</li><li>The three virtual banks expected to launch in 2026E are likely to remain small, with a market share of just 1.1–1.2% of total loans and deposits in the system.</li><li>Ultimately, whether or not virtual banks materialize, the Thai banking sector is already entering the digital and AI era.</li></ul>

The emergence of virtual banks in Thailand still faces challenges in proving their success, as traditional banks have already invested heavily in IT and developed applications with features increasingly comparable to those of virtual banks.The three virtual banks expected to launch in 2026E are likely to remain small, with a market share of just 1.1–1.2% of total loans and deposits in the system.Ultimately, whether or not virtual banks materialize, the Thai banking sector is already entering the digital and AI era.

Banking: Virtual Banks and the Thai Banking Landscape

<ul><li>TH: Assessing the impact of US reciprocal tariffs Trade negotiations between Thailand and the US remain unresolved.</li><li>Thailand is preparing to submit a revised proposal before the July 9 deadline, with the possibility of an extension to August 1.</li><li>After that, the US is expected to impose tariffs at the rate announced in early April on countries that fail to reach an agreement.</li></ul>

TH: Assessing the impact of US reciprocal tariffs Trade negotiations between Thailand and the US remain unresolved.Thailand is preparing to submit a revised proposal before the July 9 deadline, with the possibility of an extension to August 1.After that, the US is expected to impose tariffs at the rate announced in early April on countries that fail to reach an agreement.

Thailand

Tisco Financial Group Pcl is a bank holding company.  The Company's banking subsidiary offers working capital, project, term, automobile and home loans; custodian services; securities brokerage; mutual funds; and private banking; and advises on equity and debt capital markets, privatizations, debt restructuring, project finance, and mergers and acquisitions.

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Tisco Financial Group (TISCO TB)

Banking Sector 3Q25E Profit Outlook Pressured By Loans And NIM - Neutral

Net interest income (NII) is expected to decline, weighed down by loan contraction and lower NIM, while non-NII should rise on investment gains and...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 19, 2025.

The SET Index is expected to move with upward volatility today, with the resistance at 1,300/1,316 and the support at 1,290/1,284.

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. SEPTEMBER 11, 2025

Asian bourses advanced, while the SET continued to edge higher on expectations of economic stimulus from the new economic team and steady fund...

Krungthai XSpring

Banking: Virtual Banks and the Thai Banking Landscape

The three virtual banks expected to launch in 2026E are likely to remain small, with a market share of just 1.1–1.2% of total loans and deposits in...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Ahead - July 7, 2025

TH: Assessing the impact of US reciprocal tariffs Trade negotiations between Thailand and the US remain unresolved. Thailand is preparing to submit...

Krungthai XSpring

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