Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Analysts are expecting cashless payments in Japan for 2021 to show further accelerated growth in the use of mobile payment apps.</li>
<li>Surveys suggest consumers rapidly increased their use of mobile payments and are even expressing frustration when the service is unavailable. </li>
<li>PayPay is utterly dominant with nearly 50% share based on survey responses. We expect consolidation below from NTT, Mercari, Rakuten and KDDI.</li>
</ul>


Analysts are expecting cashless payments in Japan for 2021 to show further accelerated growth in the use of mobile payment apps.
Surveys suggest consumers rapidly increased their use of mobile payments and are even expressing frustration when the service is unavailable. 
PayPay is utterly dominant with nearly 50% share based on survey responses. We expect consolidation below from NTT, Mercari, Rakuten and KDDI.


Growth in Cashless Payments Surges in Japan – PayPay Totally Dominant

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

SBI Sumishin Net Bank  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>SBI Sumishin Net Bank (SSNB) will be looking to raise around US$1.1bn in its upcoming IPO.</li>
<li>SSNB is a Japanese digital bank set up as a 50-50 joint venture between Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, Japan’s largest trust bank, and SBI Group, a financial services firm. </li>
<li>The deal, if successful, would be Japan’s first online-only bank to go public. In this note we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


SBI Sumishin Net Bank (SSNB) will be looking to raise around US$1.1bn in its upcoming IPO.
SSNB is a Japanese digital bank set up as a 50-50 joint venture between Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, Japan’s largest trust bank, and SBI Group, a financial services firm. 
The deal, if successful, would be Japan’s first online-only bank to go public. In this note we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


SBI Sumishin Net Bank Pre-IPO - The Positives - Past Growth Has Been Decent

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The core eCommerce and Fintech segments posted good results for the quarter but that will certainly get lost in the discussion on mobile</li>
<li>Mobile operating losses exceeded $1bn in Q4 and whilst management is guiding to losses bottoming out in Q1 22, the magnitude of improvements remains undefined</li>
<li>Rakuten Mobile capex is on par with incumbents and will remain unchanged in FY22</li>
</ul>


The core eCommerce and Fintech segments posted good results for the quarter but that will certainly get lost in the discussion on mobile
Mobile operating losses exceeded $1bn in Q4 and whilst management is guiding to losses bottoming out in Q1 22, the magnitude of improvements remains undefined
Rakuten Mobile capex is on par with incumbents and will remain unchanged in FY22


Rakuten (Neutral) - Q4 21 Results Reaction: Hard to Look past Mobile Losses

<ul>
<li>Q3 21 in-line for revenue but well ahead for EBITDA on solid advertising growth leading to an upgrade in management's full-year EBITDA target.</li>
<li>Operational results were encouraging with double-digit gains in ad sales and 7% eCommerce growth despite strong year-ago comps.</li>
<li>Impairment losses for equity associate Demae-Can sting but the overall story is positive.</li>
</ul>


Q3 21 in-line for revenue but well ahead for EBITDA on solid advertising growth leading to an upgrade in management's full-year EBITDA target.
Operational results were encouraging with double-digit gains in ad sales and 7% eCommerce growth despite strong year-ago comps.
Impairment losses for equity associate Demae-Can sting but the overall story is positive.


Z Holdings (Buy) Q3 21 Results Reaction: Mostly Positive as Ad Sales Continues to Impress

<ul>
<li>We had a chat with KDDI after results last week including clarification on issues that came up on the analyst call (3G network shutdown, Q4 impacts on operating profit)</li>
<li>The competitive environment in mobile looks similar to Q2 but wider distribution for sub-brands UQ (retail store presence) and Povo (first full quarter of availability) helped drive user growth</li>
<li>We have updated our forecasts for Q3 results and remain at Buy</li>
</ul>


We had a chat with KDDI after results last week including clarification on issues that came up on the analyst call (3G network shutdown, Q4 impacts on operating profit)
The competitive environment in mobile looks similar to Q2 but wider distribution for sub-brands UQ (retail store presence) and Povo (first full quarter of availability) helped drive user growth
We have updated our forecasts for Q3 results and remain at Buy


KDDI (Buy) - Follow-Up After Q3 21 Results

Japan

Rakuten Group, Inc. provides Internet services. The Company offers Internet finance services which including "Rakuten Card" and "Rakuten Bank". Rakuten Group also provides digital content services including electronic book services.

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Rakuten (4755 JP)

Growth in Cashless Payments Surges in Japan – PayPay Totally Dominant

Japan is shifting from 80-90% cash retail transactions to 40-50% cashless in the blink of an eye. Softbank/Z HD dominates with nearly 50% share and...

Michael Causton

SBI Sumishin Net Bank Pre-IPO - The Positives - Past Growth Has Been Decent

SBI Sumishin Net Bank (SSNB) will be looking to raise around US$1.1bn in its upcoming IPO. It will be the first digital bank listing in Japan.

Sumeet Singh

Rakuten (Neutral) - Q4 21 Results Reaction: Hard to Look past Mobile Losses

Rakuten’s mobile business is losing a billion dollars per quarter and capital spending is higher than incumbents. That is going to obscure solid...

Kirk Boodry

Z Holdings (Buy) Q3 21 Results Reaction: Mostly Positive as Ad Sales Continues to Impress

This was a good quarter with better-than-expected growth in eCommerce, ad sales and cashless payments and an upgrade to the full-year EBITDA target...

Kirk Boodry

KDDI (Buy) - Follow-Up After Q3 21 Results

We are relatively sanguine about the impact of the 3G network shutdown whilst drivers behind the growth in consumer mobile subscriptions are...

Kirk Boodry

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