Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With e-commerce and fintech segments performing reasonably well, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a>’s Q3 results were mostly in line with expectations.</li>
<li>However, the Mobile segment failed to live up to expectations with the segment’s operating loss narrowing by just ¥3.4bn to ¥120.9bn in 3Q22.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, we are excited about the prospects of Rakuten Mobile through the success of Rakuten Symphony as the business is close to signing 12 new corporate customers.</li>
</ul>


With e-commerce and fintech segments performing reasonably well, Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)’s Q3 results were mostly in line with expectations.
However, the Mobile segment failed to live up to expectations with the segment’s operating loss narrowing by just ¥3.4bn to ¥120.9bn in 3Q22.
Nonetheless, we are excited about the prospects of Rakuten Mobile through the success of Rakuten Symphony as the business is close to signing 12 new corporate customers.


Rakuten Mobile: Expecting Losses To Shrink With Symphony & Energy Turning Profitable

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Convenience store retailing was one of the worst hit retail sectors during Covid as commuters and students stayed at home. Recovery has taken time but is on track. </li>
<li>Recovery aside, however, the sector has reached saturation, so the only way to grow is to maximise traffic to stores and the amount each customer spends.</li>
<li>This is forcing unprecedented innovation on a sector already famous for it but it won't be enough to generate the growth rates of the past.</li>
</ul>


Convenience store retailing was one of the worst hit retail sectors during Covid as commuters and students stayed at home. Recovery has taken time but is on track. 
Recovery aside, however, the sector has reached saturation, so the only way to grow is to maximise traffic to stores and the amount each customer spends.
This is forcing unprecedented innovation on a sector already famous for it but it won't be enough to generate the growth rates of the past.


Japanese Convenience Stores Recover but Where Will Future Growth Come From?

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<ul>
<li>Financial results were largely as expected with good news in fintech on a return to double-digit revenue growth but continued steep losses in mobile</li>
<li>Mobile subscriptions fell by 280K (-9% over two quarters) as users of free plans churned off keeping YoY growth to 2%</li>
<li>The company is keen on the potential once platinum band spectrum is available but that is up to two years away</li>
</ul>


Financial results were largely as expected with good news in fintech on a return to double-digit revenue growth but continued steep losses in mobile
Mobile subscriptions fell by 280K (-9% over two quarters) as users of free plans churned off keeping YoY growth to 2%
The company is keen on the potential once platinum band spectrum is available but that is up to two years away


Rakuten (Neutral) - Q3 22 Results Reaction: Mobile Subscriber Losses as Free Users Flee

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Global Digital Niaga Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>PT Global Digital (BliBli) raised around US$517m in its Indonesian IPO, after using the upsize option and pricing its deal just below the top-end.</li>
<li>BliBli provides e-commerce services across Indonesia to both retail consumers and institutions.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>


PT Global Digital (BliBli) raised around US$517m in its Indonesian IPO, after using the upsize option and pricing its deal just below the top-end.
BliBli provides e-commerce services across Indonesia to both retail consumers and institutions.
In our previous notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


BliBli IPO Trading - Upsized, Priced near Top-End but Should Be Trading at Least 50% Lower

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/global-digital-niaga-pt-blibli" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34881:1" rel="noopener">Blibli (1437710D IJ)</a> priced its IPO at IDR450 per share to raise net proceeds of US$508 million. The shares will start trading on 8 November.</li>
<li>We have previously discussed the IPO in <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blibli-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:82294" rel="noopener">Blibli IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blibli-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:82376" rel="noopener">Blibli IPO: The Bear Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blibli-vs-tokopedia-vs-bukalapak-vs-lazada-vs-shopee" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:82473" rel="noopener">Blibli Vs Tokopedia Vs Bukalapak Vs Lazada Vs Shopee</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blibli-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:82555" rel="noopener">Blibli IPO: Valuation Insights</a></strong></em>.   </li>
<li>Despite peer multiple derating, the IPO price remains unattractive compared to global and Asian-focused e-commerce peers. </li>
</ul>



Blibli (1437710D IJ) priced its IPO at IDR450 per share to raise net proceeds of US$508 million. The shares will start trading on 8 November.
We have previously discussed the IPO in Blibli IPO: The Bull Case, Blibli IPO: The Bear Case, Blibli Vs Tokopedia Vs Bukalapak Vs Lazada Vs Shopee, Blibli IPO: Valuation Insights.   
Despite peer multiple derating, the IPO price remains unattractive compared to global and Asian-focused e-commerce peers. 


Japan

Rakuten Group, Inc. provides Internet services. The Company offers Internet finance services which including "Rakuten Card" and "Rakuten Bank". Rakuten Group also provides digital content services including electronic book services.

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Rakuten (4755 JP)

Rakuten Mobile: Expecting Losses To Shrink With Symphony & Energy Turning Profitable

The Mobile Services business is a long way from being profitable but Symphony & Energy will soon start making decent profits to offset the Mobile...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japanese Convenience Stores Recover but Where Will Future Growth Come From?

Japanese convenience stores are innovative, relentless competitors. It is just a shame the sector is at saturation. While there is growth potential...

Michael Causton

Rakuten (Neutral) - Q3 22 Results Reaction: Mobile Subscriber Losses as Free Users Flee

Mobile erosion modestly narrowed again but a second consecutive quarter of subscriber losses highlights the challenges that remain.

Kirk Boodry

BliBli IPO Trading - Upsized, Priced near Top-End but Should Be Trading at Least 50% Lower

PT Global Digital (BliBli) raised around US$517m in its Indonesian IPO, after using the upsize option and pricing its deal just below the top-end....

Sumeet Singh

Blibli IPO: Trading Debut

The shares will start trading on 8 November. Despite peer multiple derating, the IPO price remains unattractive compared to global and Asian...

Arun George

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