Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Most Asian bourses surged, while the SET saw buying activity flow into banking, commerce, hospital, and tourism stocks.</li><li>In addition, AOT managed to rise, which helped the index close higher despite DELTA's decline.</li><li>However, the recovery remains uncertain due to light trading volume.</li></ul>

Most Asian bourses surged, while the SET saw buying activity flow into banking, commerce, hospital, and tourism stocks.In addition, AOT managed to rise, which helped the index close higher despite DELTA's decline.However, the recovery remains uncertain due to light trading volume.

<ul><li>The appreciation of the baht has attracted foreign capital inflows into the Thai bond market, with net purchases exceeding Bt6.8bn MTD since early February.</li><li>As a result, the Thai 10Y bond yield has declined to 2.31%, approaching the policy rate of 2.25%.</li><li>Historically, when the 10Y bond yield falls close to the policy rate, the SET typically reverses within 3-4 months, as foreign capital begins to flow into the Thai stock market, with this pattern observed in 2011, 2016, and 2020 (Figure 1).</li></ul>

The appreciation of the baht has attracted foreign capital inflows into the Thai bond market, with net purchases exceeding Bt6.8bn MTD since early February.As a result, the Thai 10Y bond yield has declined to 2.31%, approaching the policy rate of 2.25%.Historically, when the 10Y bond yield falls close to the policy rate, the SET typically reverses within 3-4 months, as foreign capital begins to flow into the Thai stock market, with this pattern observed in 2011, 2016, and 2020 (Figure 1).

<ul><li>The latest Global Fund Manager Survey by Bank of America polled 179 global fund managers with a total NAV of USD503bn.</li><li>The survey, which took place between November 1-7, includes 22% of responses gathered after the US election results were announced — reflecting partial recognition of the outcome, with Trump being elected US president and the Republican Party likely to have control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.</li><li>The survey reveals significant shifts in asset allocations in response to these developments. The shift is driven by the US economy showing stronger signs of a "no landing" scenario, while the global downward interest rate cycle appears less pronounced than previously expected. </li></ul>

The latest Global Fund Manager Survey by Bank of America polled 179 global fund managers with a total NAV of USD503bn.The survey, which took place between November 1-7, includes 22% of responses gathered after the US election results were announced — reflecting partial recognition of the outcome, with Trump being elected US president and the Republican Party likely to have control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.The survey reveals significant shifts in asset allocations in response to these developments. The shift is driven by the US economy showing stronger signs of a "no landing" scenario, while the global downward interest rate cycle appears less pronounced than previously expected. 

FMS Outlook Following Trump's Victory as US President - November 19, 2024

<ul><li>KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to provide only short-term positive momentum.</li><li>However, the 2025E GDP growth outlook, projected at 2.8% (range: 2.3-3.3%), is seen as a negative guidance compared to the consensus estimate of 3.0%.</li><li>This reflects downside risks from global economic uncertainties, particularly in international trade, which is expected to be negatively impacted by Donald Trump's tariff hike policies. </li></ul>

KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to provide only short-term positive momentum.However, the 2025E GDP growth outlook, projected at 2.8% (range: 2.3-3.3%), is seen as a negative guidance compared to the consensus estimate of 3.0%.This reflects downside risks from global economic uncertainties, particularly in international trade, which is expected to be negatively impacted by Donald Trump's tariff hike policies. 

Economic Update: 3Q24 GDP Growth - Upbeat 3Q24 GDP Growth

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating, with a negative view on the fundamentals as the current stock price shows 11% downside from the 12M FWD fair value of Bt25.30, based on a required return of 9.1%.</li><li>There is also very limited tactical upside, given that the stock price has risen 14% QTD and is trading above the 6-month historical average.</li><li>A positive outlook is maintained for the performance over the next two years, with a strong EPS CAGR of +26% during 2024-26E, driven by a significant increase in land transfer revenue.</li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating, with a negative view on the fundamentals as the current stock price shows 11% downside from the 12M FWD fair value of Bt25.30, based on a required return of 9.1%.There is also very limited tactical upside, given that the stock price has risen 14% QTD and is trading above the 6-month historical average.A positive outlook is maintained for the performance over the next two years, with a strong EPS CAGR of +26% during 2024-26E, driven by a significant increase in land transfer revenue.

Amata Corporation - In-Line Profit; Concerns over Declining GPM for Industrial Estates

Thailand

Amata Corporation Public Company Limited develops industrial estates primarily served for manufacturing plants and factories. The Company acquires land and develops essential infrastructure and facilities ready for industrialized operations. Ameta also has overseas investments in Vietnam.

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Amata Corp Public (AMATA TB)

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FMS Outlook Following Trump's Victory as US President - November 19, 2024

The survey, which took place between November 1-7, includes 22% of responses gathered after the US election results were announced — reflecting...

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update: 3Q24 GDP Growth - Upbeat 3Q24 GDP Growth

KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to...

Krungthai XSpring

Amata Corporation - In-Line Profit; Concerns over Declining GPM for Industrial Estates

We maintain a Neutral rating, with a negative view on the fundamentals as the current stock price shows 11% downside from the 12M FWD fair value of...

Krungthai XSpring

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