Global TMT analyst with Asia ex-Japan focus.

Mitchell Kim

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coupang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28425:1" rel="noopener">Coupang (CPNG US) </a>is set for IPO on 11 March 2021 at a revised-up range of USD32-34.  This is one of the blockbuster listings among the Korean companies and thrusting Coupang to the five largest companies in Korea.  There have been healthy debates on this IPO with a consensus that the valuation is very expensive, yet, Coupang appears to be set to fetch close to USD50 billion valuation.</p><p><strong>We are on the “expensive” camp and willing to wait for a better entry price.</strong> We arrived at this conclusion by focusing on direct head-to-head growth and valuation comparisons with its peer, JD.com, instead of comparing with a broad base of peers. Simply put, would you rather have JD.com or Coupang shares?  They are both mostly online retailers with nearly 90% of revenues from retail.     </p><p><strong>Coupang’s market value is priced at 67% premium to JD.com’s market value in 2015</strong> when the latter was in a similar growth stage but with higher upside potential for online consumption outlook.  The only explanation is the outlook for better growth and other considerations we discuss in this report.   </p><p>In this report, we highlight the following:</p><ol>
<li>How does Coupang stack up against JD.com at the past similar growth stage?</li>
<li>Is Coupang expensive?  Yes, on most multiples including EV/Sales and EV/Gross Profit.</li>
<li>How can the market justify paying such a premium? High growth expectation.</li>
<li>Is Coupang’s growth in 2020 sustainable?  Unlikely.</li>
</ol>

Coupang (CPNG US) is set for IPO on 11 March 2021 at a revised-up range of USD32-34.  This is one of the blockbuster listings among the Korean companies and thrusting Coupang to the five largest companies in Korea.  There have been healthy debates on this IPO with a consensus that the valuation is very expensive, yet, Coupang appears to be set to fetch close to USD50 billion valuation.We are on the “expensive” camp and willing to wait for a better entry price. We arrived at this conclusion by focusing on direct head-to-head growth and valuation comparisons with its peer, JD.com, instead of comparing with a broad base of peers. Simply put, would you rather have JD.com or Coupang shares?  They are both mostly online retailers with nearly 90% of revenues from retail.     Coupang’s market value is priced at 67% premium to JD.com’s market value in 2015 when the latter was in a similar growth stage but with higher upside potential for online consumption outlook.  The only explanation is the outlook for better growth and other considerations we discuss in this report.   In this report, we highlight the following:
How does Coupang stack up against JD.com at the past similar growth stage?
Is Coupang expensive?  Yes, on most multiples including EV/Sales and EV/Gross Profit.
How can the market justify paying such a premium? High growth expectation.
Is Coupang’s growth in 2020 sustainable?  Unlikely.


Coupang (CPNG US): Going Mano E Mano with JD.com

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coupang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28425:1" rel="noopener">Coupang (CPNG US)</a> is the largest e-commerce platform in South Korea, according to Euromonitor. Coupang is best known for Rocket Delivery, which provides free, next-day delivery for orders placed any time of the day.</p></div><div><p>Coupang has priced its IPO at $35 per share, above the previously upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share. The number of the offer shares has increased from 120 million to 130 million shares due to a 10 million shares increase in the secondary tranche. At the final IPO price of $35 per share, Coupang will have a market cap of $60 billion. </p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-initiation-delivering-the-goods" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48125" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO Initiation: Delivering the Goods</a>, we opined that Coupang's fundamentals tick all the right boxes and worth a look, in our view. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48708" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO: Valuation Insights</a> we noted was attractively priced for its growth potential vs global e-commerce peers at the original IPO price range of $27-30 per share. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-upsized-deal-size" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48991" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO: Upsized Deal Size</a>, Coupang remained attractive at the upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share.</p></div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of $39.46 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price has reasonable upside potential. </p></div></div>

Coupang (CPNG US) is the largest e-commerce platform in South Korea, according to Euromonitor. Coupang is best known for Rocket Delivery, which provides free, next-day delivery for orders placed any time of the day.Coupang has priced its IPO at $35 per share, above the previously upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share. The number of the offer shares has increased from 120 million to 130 million shares due to a 10 million shares increase in the secondary tranche. At the final IPO price of $35 per share, Coupang will have a market cap of $60 billion. In Coupang IPO Initiation: Delivering the Goods, we opined that Coupang's fundamentals tick all the right boxes and worth a look, in our view. In Coupang IPO: Valuation Insights we noted was attractively priced for its growth potential vs global e-commerce peers at the original IPO price range of $27-30 per share. In Coupang IPO: Upsized Deal Size, Coupang remained attractive at the upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share.Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of $39.46 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price has reasonable upside potential. 

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<div><p>Coupang, one of the largest product e-commerce players in Korea, aims to raise up to US$4.0bn in its US listing via a mix of selling primary and secondary shares. In this note, we’ll talk about the valuation at the revised price range.</p></div><div><p>Coupang offers its 14.8m customers a wide range of owned-inventory selection. In addition, on its marketplace it also offers millions of SKUs sourced from over 200,000 merchants. Apart from normal e-commerce operation, it also provides its customers with: grocery offering, Rocket Fresh; logistics food delivery offering, Coupang Eats; and digital financial services, Coupang Pay.</p></div><div><p>I've covered various aspects of the deal in my earlier insights: </p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-the-positives-fast-growth-sticky-customers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Sticky Customers</a>, </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-the-negatives-horrendous-data-disclosures-including-no-mention-of-ott-launch" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Horrendous Data Disclosures, Including No Mention of OTT Launch</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-fair-bit-of-competition-but-it-s-doing-better-than-most-local-peers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - Fair Bit of Competition but It’s Doing Better than Most Local Peers</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-earnings-forecast-and-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast and Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-momentum-play-unequal-lock-up-index-inclusion" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO - Momentum Play, Unequal Lock-Up, Index Inclusion</a></li>
</ul></div>

Coupang, one of the largest product e-commerce players in Korea, aims to raise up to US$4.0bn in its US listing via a mix of selling primary and secondary shares. In this note, we’ll talk about the valuation at the revised price range.Coupang offers its 14.8m customers a wide range of owned-inventory selection. In addition, on its marketplace it also offers millions of SKUs sourced from over 200,000 merchants. Apart from normal e-commerce operation, it also provides its customers with: grocery offering, Rocket Fresh; logistics food delivery offering, Coupang Eats; and digital financial services, Coupang Pay.I've covered various aspects of the deal in my earlier insights: 

Coupang Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Sticky Customers, 
Coupang Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Horrendous Data Disclosures, Including No Mention of OTT Launch
Coupang Pre-IPO - Fair Bit of Competition but It’s Doing Better than Most Local Peers
Coupang Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast and Valuation
Coupang IPO - Momentum Play, Unequal Lock-Up, Index Inclusion


Coupang IPO - Quick Note - Peers Move Down, Range Moves Up. Ripe for Trading.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coupang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28425:1" rel="noopener">Coupang (CPNG US)</a> is the largest e-commerce platform in South Korea, according to Euromonitor. Coupang is best known for Rocket Delivery, which provides free, next-day delivery for orders placed any time of the day.</p></div><div><p>Coupang has increased its IPO price range from $27-30 per share to $32-34 per share. The number of the offer shares remains unchanged at 120 million shares and the primary/secondary split remains unchanged. At the upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share, Coupang will have a market cap of $55-58 billion vs the previous market cap of $46-51 billion. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds from the primary raise are $3.2 billion ($2.8 billion previously). </p></div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-initiation-delivering-the-goods" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48125" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO Initiation: Delivering the Goods</a>, we opined that Coupang's fundamentals tick all the right boxes and worth a look, in our view. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48708" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO: Valuation Insights</a> we noted was attractively priced for its growth potential vs global e-commerce peers at the original IPO price range.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>Our valuation analysis suggests that Coupang remains attractive at the upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share. Our base-case DCF valuation is $39.35 per share and we would participate in the IPO.</p></div>
</div>

Coupang (CPNG US) is the largest e-commerce platform in South Korea, according to Euromonitor. Coupang is best known for Rocket Delivery, which provides free, next-day delivery for orders placed any time of the day.Coupang has increased its IPO price range from $27-30 per share to $32-34 per share. The number of the offer shares remains unchanged at 120 million shares and the primary/secondary split remains unchanged. At the upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share, Coupang will have a market cap of $55-58 billion vs the previous market cap of $46-51 billion. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds from the primary raise are $3.2 billion ($2.8 billion previously). 
In Coupang IPO Initiation: Delivering the Goods, we opined that Coupang's fundamentals tick all the right boxes and worth a look, in our view. In Coupang IPO: Valuation Insights we noted was attractively priced for its growth potential vs global e-commerce peers at the original IPO price range.
Our valuation analysis suggests that Coupang remains attractive at the upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share. Our base-case DCF valuation is $39.35 per share and we would participate in the IPO.


APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tuya-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32158:1" rel="noopener">Tuya Inc (1869782D US)</a> is looking to raise US$1bn in its upcoming U.S. IPO. </p></div><div><p>Tuya is a Platform as a Service (PaaS) and Software as a Service (SaaS) provider to businesses and developers with a focus on IoT. The company’s IoT PaaS enables businesses and developers to easily develop, launch, manage, and monetize software-enabled devices and services while its Industry SaaS helps businesses deploy, connect, and manage a large number and different types of smart devices.</p></div><div>
<p>In this note, we will take a look at comparable peers, share our thoughts on forecast and valuation. </p>
<p>We have previously covered the company in:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tuya-pre-ipo-ride-the-iot-wave-via-tuya-s-platform" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48740" rel="noopener">Tuya (涂鸦智能) Pre-IPO - Ride the IoT Wave Via Tuya’s Platform</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tuya-pre-ipo-tuya-s-platform-usage-review" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48822" rel="noopener">Tuya (涂鸦智能) Pre-IPO - Tuya's Platform Usage Review</a> </li>
</ul>
</div>

Tuya Inc (1869782D US) is looking to raise US$1bn in its upcoming U.S. IPO. Tuya is a Platform as a Service (PaaS) and Software as a Service (SaaS) provider to businesses and developers with a focus on IoT. The company’s IoT PaaS enables businesses and developers to easily develop, launch, manage, and monetize software-enabled devices and services while its Industry SaaS helps businesses deploy, connect, and manage a large number and different types of smart devices.
In this note, we will take a look at comparable peers, share our thoughts on forecast and valuation. 
We have previously covered the company in:


Tuya (涂鸦智能) Pre-IPO - Ride the IoT Wave Via Tuya’s Platform 

Tuya (涂鸦智能) Pre-IPO - Tuya's Platform Usage Review 



Tuya (涂鸦智能) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison, Forecast, and Valuation

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon (AMZN US)

Coupang (CPNG US): Going Mano E Mano with JD.com

Coupang (CPNG US) is set for IPO on 11 March 2021 at a revised-up range of USD32-34. Our unique one-on-one comparison with JD.com should help...

Mitchell Kim

Coupang IPO: Trading Debut

Coupang has priced its IPO at $35 per share, above the previously upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows...

Arun George

Coupang IPO - Quick Note - Peers Move Down, Range Moves Up. Ripe for Trading.

Coupang,aims to raise up to US$4.0bn in its US listing via a mix of selling primary and secondary shares. In this note, we’ll talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

Coupang IPO: Upsized Deal Size

Coupang has increased its IPO price range from $27-30 per share to $32-34 per share. Our base-case DCF valuation is $39.35 per share and we would...

Arun George

Tuya (涂鸦智能) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison, Forecast, and Valuation

Tuya Inc (1869782D US) is looking to raise US$1bn in its upcoming U.S. IPO. In this note, we will take a look at comparable peers, share our...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

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