Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a>  posted a sharp improvement in sales at Rakuten Ichiba in 2020 as customers flocked to the e-commerce platform in lieu of shopping at physical stores. Based on our estimates, Rakuten and Amazon are pretty much neck and neck for leadership in e-commerce in Japan.
Going forward, Rakuten is hoping that the growth in cross-use of its e-commerce service by its new mobile subscriber base will continue as it works further to improve fulfilment reliability and coverage both alone and through its new joint venture with Japan Post.
In recognition of the increasing diversity of the company’s businesses, Rakuten will change its name to Rakuten Group from April.

Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)  posted a sharp improvement in sales at Rakuten Ichiba in 2020 as customers flocked to the e-commerce platform in lieu of shopping at physical stores. Based on our estimates, Rakuten and Amazon are pretty much neck and neck for leadership in e-commerce in Japan.
Going forward, Rakuten is hoping that the growth in cross-use of its e-commerce service by its new mobile subscriber base will continue as it works further to improve fulfilment reliability and coverage both alone and through its new joint venture with Japan Post.
In recognition of the increasing diversity of the company’s businesses, Rakuten will change its name to Rakuten Group from April.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Spotify printed a modest beat on 4Q and a particularly poor guidance for 2021 – even for a company that chronically underwhelms on guidance. What strikes us is this is one of the worst business models of a large cap TMT company we’ve ever seen. The future bliss of podcasting driven profitability is clearly just that…future bliss. Management has NEVER explained how podcasting will translate into a more profitable business other than through hazy comments about “holistic nature of churn reduction and new users”…it reminds us of Reed Hastings when he promised that one day Netflix would be FCF positive years ago…but at least Netflix had an operating model with inherent operating leverage and pricing power, neither of which is present with Spotify. We can justify downside to $125, but realistically think $200 is a reasonable price target.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

Spotify printed a modest beat on 4Q and a particularly poor guidance for 2021 – even for a company that chronically underwhelms on guidance. What strikes us is this is one of the worst business models of a large cap TMT company we’ve ever seen. The future bliss of podcasting driven profitability is clearly just that…future bliss. Management has NEVER explained how podcasting will translate into a more profitable business other than through hazy comments about “holistic nature of churn reduction and new users”…it reminds us of Reed Hastings when he promised that one day Netflix would be FCF positive years ago…but at least Netflix had an operating model with inherent operating leverage and pricing power, neither of which is present with Spotify. We can justify downside to $125, but realistically think $200 is a reasonable price target.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

With people staying at home, deliveries for e-commerce orders have a better chance of succeeding, helping failed delivery rates fall from 25% to just 11% in only five years. No wonder e-commerce and transport companies are posting higher profits.

With people staying at home, deliveries for e-commerce orders have a better chance of succeeding, helping failed delivery rates fall from 25% to just 11% in only five years. No wonder e-commerce and transport companies are posting higher profits.

E-Commerce Efficiency Marches on in Japan

In 4Q20, Amazon turned in another sensational quarter, but essentially hasn’t moved since September as it has been “growing” into its valuation after a meteoric move in 1H20. In the past year, Amazon has spent an incremental $11.5B on COVID related costs (~10% of 2020 opex), increased the square footage of its logistics network’s square footage by 50%  and also added ~650,000 (!!!) employees, doubling its employee base in what also turns out to be the largest mobilization of workers in the US since World War II. And yet…since September 2, the stock is down 4% from its alltime high. We think Amazon is worth closer to $6,000 then $3,000 and think that it has potentially the same type of setup as last year when we began writing (on Smartkarma) about Amazon. In years after the company has huge capacity expansions, it tends to outperform as the operating leverage of capacity utilization shines through.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

In 4Q20, Amazon turned in another sensational quarter, but essentially hasn’t moved since September as it has been “growing” into its valuation after a meteoric move in 1H20. In the past year, Amazon has spent an incremental $11.5B on COVID related costs (~10% of 2020 opex), increased the square footage of its logistics network’s square footage by 50%  and also added ~650,000 (!!!) employees, doubling its employee base in what also turns out to be the largest mobilization of workers in the US since World War II. And yet…since September 2, the stock is down 4% from its alltime high. We think Amazon is worth closer to $6,000 then $3,000 and think that it has potentially the same type of setup as last year when we began writing (on Smartkarma) about Amazon. In years after the company has huge capacity expansions, it tends to outperform as the operating leverage of capacity utilization shines through.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Brookfield India Real Estate Trust / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brookfield-india-real-estate-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31036:1" rel="noopener">Brookfield India Real Estate Trust (BIREIT IN)</a> (BREIT from hereon) aims to raise around US$500m in its India IPO. Its initial portfolio consists of four large campus-format office parks located in Mumbai, Gurugram, Noida and Kolkata. The initial portfolio was 87% occupied and had a weighted average lease expiry (WALE) of 7.1 years, as of Sep 2020. The portfolio has recorded steady net operating income (NOI) growth in the past of 6.46% and 7.64% in FY19 and FY20, respectively. Future growth as well appears promising with NOI for the initial portfolio expected to grow by 20% over FY20-23. However, BREIT hasn’t provided a whole lot of details about the past performance of its assets, which leaves some doubts about their past performance and future potential.I’ve covered various aspects of the deal in my earlier notes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/brookfields-india-real-estate-trust-pre-ipo-the-positives-provides-different-geographic-exposure" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Brookfields India Real Estate Trust Pre-IPO - The Positives- Provides Different Geographic Exposure </a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/brookfields-india-real-estate-trust-pre-ipo-the-negatives-asset-details-leave-questions-unanswered" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Brookfields India Real Estate Trust Pre-IPO- The Negatives- Asset Details Leave Questions Unanswered </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/brookfields-india-real-estate-trust-pre-ipo-gurgaon-site-visit-takeaways" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Brookfields India Real Estate Trust Pre-IPO- Gurgaon Site Visit Takeaways</a>In this note, I’ll talk about the recent updates and valuations.

Brookfield India Real Estate Trust (BIREIT IN) (BREIT from hereon) aims to raise around US$500m in its India IPO. Its initial portfolio consists of four large campus-format office parks located in Mumbai, Gurugram, Noida and Kolkata. The initial portfolio was 87% occupied and had a weighted average lease expiry (WALE) of 7.1 years, as of Sep 2020. The portfolio has recorded steady net operating income (NOI) growth in the past of 6.46% and 7.64% in FY19 and FY20, respectively. Future growth as well appears promising with NOI for the initial portfolio expected to grow by 20% over FY20-23. However, BREIT hasn’t provided a whole lot of details about the past performance of its assets, which leaves some doubts about their past performance and future potential.I’ve covered various aspects of the deal in my earlier notes, Brookfields India Real Estate Trust Pre-IPO - The Positives- Provides Different Geographic Exposure ,  Brookfields India Real Estate Trust Pre-IPO- The Negatives- Asset Details Leave Questions Unanswered and Brookfields India Real Estate Trust Pre-IPO- Gurgaon Site Visit TakeawaysIn this note, I’ll talk about the recent updates and valuations.

Brookfields India Real Estate Trust IPO - Not Very Convincing but the Yield Looks Tempting

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon (AMZN US)

Rakuten Surges in 2020

Rakuten's Ichiba online shopping platform had a great year based on early numbers coming from CEO Mikitani and looks to have plenty to look forward...

Michael Causton

Spotify 4Q20: Just Trust Us

Spotify printed an OK quarter paired with awful guidance for 2021, especially given that its excuses for missing guidance were they reasons they...

Aaron Gabin

E-Commerce Efficiency Marches on in Japan

Japanese e-commerce fulfilment efficiency is improving month to month, with delivery failure rates plummeting in the last year. The government and...

Michael Causton

Amazon 4Q20: The GOAT Departs

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos is stepping down. We doubt he steps away. 2021 is a unique setup. Its the first time Amazon was up during a big capacity...

Aaron Gabin

Brookfields India Real Estate Trust IPO - Not Very Convincing but the Yield Looks Tempting

Brookfield India Real Estate Trust aims to raise around US$500m in its India IPO. Its initial portfolio consists of four office parks located in...

Sumeet Singh

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