IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker, Global Equity Research Ltd

Rickin Thakrar

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker

Equity Bottom-Up

The following is a contrarian negative view on Amazon, particularly as it relates to its recent acquisition of Whole Foods. We argue there are five negative issues for Amazon/Whole Foods in the short to medium term, which are as follows:<ol><li>Whole Foods may lose in a price war with Trader Joe’s/Aldi</li><li>We estimate the Whole Foods acquisition could drive $12bn in shareholder value destruction</li><li>Whole Foods could end up with 0% margin and initial cost savings are limited in our view</li><li>Amazon’s reversion to physical space suggests a pure online grocery model is unlikely to succeed</li><li>Amazon’s cash flow could be subdued over the next 18 months</li></ol>

The following is a contrarian negative view on Amazon, particularly as it relates to its recent acquisition of Whole Foods. We argue there are five negative issues for Amazon/Whole Foods in the short to medium term, which are as follows:Whole Foods may lose in a price war with Trader Joe’s/AldiWe estimate the Whole Foods acquisition could drive $12bn in shareholder value destructionWhole Foods could end up with 0% margin and initial cost savings are limited in our viewAmazon’s reversion to physical space suggests a pure online grocery model is unlikely to succeedAmazon’s cash flow could be subdued over the next 18 months

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>AI is the next big computing wave. </h2>After transitioning from mainframes to PCs to servers to Cloud-based data centres, computing is about to make another transition: Artificial intelligence (AI) is the next computing wave. As demand for chips from the PC and smartphone industry subsides, demand for high-end processors to power AI-based platforms such as voice interfaces, robots, augmented reality, driverless cars, smart homes and advanced cybersecurity systems will rise. This new semiconductor industry is led by Microsoft, Google, Apple and Huawei. They increasingly tell their merchant suppliers what chips to make or do it better themselves, building custom, algorithmic chips and creating their own AI supercomputers in the Cloud.And Intel has got the message.So how should investors respond?

AI is the next big computing wave. After transitioning from mainframes to PCs to servers to Cloud-based data centres, computing is about to make another transition: Artificial intelligence (AI) is the next computing wave. As demand for chips from the PC and smartphone industry subsides, demand for high-end processors to power AI-based platforms such as voice interfaces, robots, augmented reality, driverless cars, smart homes and advanced cybersecurity systems will rise. This new semiconductor industry is led by Microsoft, Google, Apple and Huawei. They increasingly tell their merchant suppliers what chips to make or do it better themselves, building custom, algorithmic chips and creating their own AI supercomputers in the Cloud.And Intel has got the message.So how should investors respond?

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

On 30 (29) August <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4590" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4590:1">Hain Celestial Group Inc (HAIN US)</a> CEO  Irwin Simon &amp; Team detailed results and spoke to analysts, while also discussing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/409" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> issues and product line development. See also a short interview with Hain CEO on Cramer's Mad Money yesterday. Finally, a quick recap of how Hain could get taken out.The Cramer Call on CNBC... I found it more of a recap. Useful even if glossy:<ol><li>2016-17 one of toughest years for Hain...;</li></ol><ol start="2"><li>Conceptually, Hain helped change what consumers…</li></ol>

On 30 (29) August Hain Celestial Group Inc (HAIN US) CEO  Irwin Simon &amp; Team detailed results and spoke to analysts, while also discussing Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) issues and product line development. See also a short interview with Hain CEO on Cramer's Mad Money yesterday. Finally, a quick recap of how Hain could get taken out.The Cramer Call on CNBC... I found it more of a recap. Useful even if glossy:2016-17 one of toughest years for Hain...;Conceptually, Hain helped change what consumers…

Hain 2017 Result Call, AMZN + Impact & Logic of Potential Takeouts

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li>We’ve seen a number of advertising sector profit warnings from Dentsu to WPP amid signs that key clients across the FMCG sector are questioning the payback from digital advertising.</li>
<li>Indeed, Google has begun offering refunds to advertisers for fraudulent traffic driven by ‘click bots’, but stricter EU data privacy rules and the rise of ad blocking software are additional threats.</li>
<li>The ad sector risks being disintermediated as increasingly cost conscious brands facing rising EM competition create…</li>
</ul>


We’ve seen a number of advertising sector profit warnings from Dentsu to WPP amid signs that key clients across the FMCG sector are questioning the payback from digital advertising.
Indeed, Google has begun offering refunds to advertisers for fraudulent traffic driven by ‘click bots’, but stricter EU data privacy rules and the rise of ad blocking software are additional threats.
The ad sector risks being disintermediated as increasingly cost conscious brands facing rising EM competition create…


Advertising Industry Gets Disrupted, as Central Bankers Fly Blind…

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

At first glance, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22213" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22213:1">WPP's (WPP LN)</a> second sales warning of the year is merely a storyline in keeping with the growing “post-Brexit hangover” narrative which sees UK corporate earnings, having benefited initially from sterling’s weakness, now struggle, as consumption and capex decisions are delayed, pending clarity on the Brexit settlement. However, since WPP is a global company and generates just 13% of sales in the UK, this isn’t a very good explanation for its problems.First up, WPP’s problems…

At first glance, WPP's (WPP LN) second sales warning of the year is merely a storyline in keeping with the growing “post-Brexit hangover” narrative which sees UK corporate earnings, having benefited initially from sterling’s weakness, now struggle, as consumption and capex decisions are delayed, pending clarity on the Brexit settlement. However, since WPP is a global company and generates just 13% of sales in the UK, this isn’t a very good explanation for its problems.First up, WPP’s problems…

Negative Readthrough from WPP's Outlook Warning for Japanese Advertisers, Global Consumer Tech

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon (AMZN US)

Amazon/Whole Foods: The Bear Case

The following is a contrarian negative view on Amazon, particularly as it relates to its recent acquisition of Whole Foods. We argue there are five...

Rickin Thakrar

Semiconductors in the Age of AI

AI is the next big computing wave. After transitioning from mainframes to PCs to servers to Cloud-based data centres, computing is about to make...

CM Research

Hain 2017 Result Call, AMZN + Impact & Logic of Potential Takeouts

On 30 (29) August Hain Celestial Group Inc (HAIN US) CEO Irwin Simon & Team detailed results and spoke to analysts, while also discussing...

Charles De Trenck

Advertising Industry Gets Disrupted, as Central Bankers Fly Blind…

We’ve seen a number of advertising sector profit warnings from Dentsu to WPP amid signs that key clients across the FMCG sector are questioning...

Sean Maher

Negative Readthrough from WPP's Outlook Warning for Japanese Advertisers, Global Consumer Tech

At first glance, WPP's (WPP LN) second sales warning of the year is merely a storyline in keeping with the growing “post-Brexit hangover” narrative...

Pelham Smithers Associates

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