Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives, MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?” As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas. I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Alphabet maintained their low double digit revenue growth. For the 10th consecutive quarters, Google network’s revenue went down.</li><li>Cloud revenue growth decelerated from 35.0% YoY in 3Q’24 to 30.1% in 4Q’24.</li><li>I will note, however, that Google usually discloses every quarter that GCP grew at higher rate than overall Cloud, but in this call, they mentioned “GCP grew at a rate that was much higher than cloud overall”. </li></ul>

Alphabet maintained their low double digit revenue growth. For the 10th consecutive quarters, Google network’s revenue went down.Cloud revenue growth decelerated from 35.0% YoY in 3Q’24 to 30.1% in 4Q’24.I will note, however, that Google usually discloses every quarter that GCP grew at higher rate than overall Cloud, but in this call, they mentioned “GCP grew at a rate that was much higher than cloud overall”. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Almost one and half years ago, I wrote about “The Curious Case of Big Tech”, in which I highlighted that much of the big tech was actually “deep value” investments back in 2013.</li><li>In fact, I also mentioned “Meta, and Amazon are currently trading at lower OCF multiple than they were trading back in 2013”.</li><li>Both Meta and Amazon have comfortably outperformed both S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 since then (not claiming any causal relationship, of course).</li></ul>

Almost one and half years ago, I wrote about “The Curious Case of Big Tech”, in which I highlighted that much of the big tech was actually “deep value” investments back in 2013.In fact, I also mentioned “Meta, and Amazon are currently trading at lower OCF multiple than they were trading back in 2013”.Both Meta and Amazon have comfortably outperformed both S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 since then (not claiming any causal relationship, of course).

Big Tech's Deteriorating Earnings Quality

US-EU Index & Corporate Actions Analyst, ORTEX

Harry Kalfas

US-EU Index & Corporate Actions Analyst

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The merger between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omnicom-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15775:1" rel="noopener">Omnicom Group (OMC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interpublic-group-of-companies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8544:1" rel="noopener">Interpublic Group Of Companies (IPG US)</a> aims to create a marketing powerhouse with $25.6 billion in revenue and $750 million in annual synergies.</li>
<li>Deal spread narrowed due to Omnicom's price drop, signalling market caution over post-merger performance.</li>
<li>The merger’s close, expected in 2025, will impact major US indices on an intra-quarter basis.</li>
</ul>


The merger between Omnicom Group (OMC US) and Interpublic Group Of Companies (IPG US) aims to create a marketing powerhouse with $25.6 billion in revenue and $750 million in annual synergies.
Deal spread narrowed due to Omnicom's price drop, signalling market caution over post-merger performance.
The merger’s close, expected in 2025, will impact major US indices on an intra-quarter basis.


Omnicom and IPG Merger of $25.6B Combined Revenue: Market Reaction and Major US Index Implications

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>SHEIN's general counsel frustrated UK lawmakers by refusing to answer certain questions</li>
<li>It's the latest in a series of potential obstacles that could derail a planned London IPO</li>
<li>Add growing concerns over cotton supply chain &amp; new threat from Amazon to existing risks</li>
</ul>


SHEIN's general counsel frustrated UK lawmakers by refusing to answer certain questions
It's the latest in a series of potential obstacles that could derail a planned London IPO
Add growing concerns over cotton supply chain &amp; new threat from Amazon to existing risks


Poor Performance Before UK Lawmakers Is SHEIN's Latest Stumble on Journey To London (Or HK?) IPO

<ul>
<li>We expect container shipping profits to begin to revert to historical levels in 2025</li>
<li>Between 2009 and 2019, Evergreen Marine's mean OpInc margin was negative 0.8%</li>
<li>We believe path to mean industry returns &amp; near-term risks both misunderstood; AVOID</li>
</ul>


We expect container shipping profits to begin to revert to historical levels in 2025
Between 2009 and 2019, Evergreen Marine's mean OpInc margin was negative 0.8%
We believe path to mean industry returns &amp; near-term risks both misunderstood; AVOID


Container Shipping: Mean Reversion in 2025, Yes, but to WHICH Mean?

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon (AMZN US)

Alphabet 4Q'24 Update

Alphabet maintained their low double digit revenue growth. For the 10th consecutive quarters, Google network’s revenue went down.

MBI Deep Dives

Big Tech's Deteriorating Earnings Quality

Almost one and half years ago, I wrote about “The Curious Case of Big Tech”, in which I highlighted that much of the big tech was actually “deep...

MBI Deep Dives

Omnicom and IPG Merger of $25.6B Combined Revenue: Market Reaction and Major US Index Implications

Omnicom Group Inc. (NYSE: OMC) and The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (NYSE: IPG) to merge in H2 2025 for a $25.6B Combined Revenue - intra...

Harry Kalfas

Poor Performance Before UK Lawmakers Is SHEIN's Latest Stumble on Journey To London (Or HK?) IPO

Sharp questions about SHEIN's supply chains and a competing product from US ecomm giant Amazon should be added to the growing list of challenges...

Tracking Traffic

Container Shipping: Mean Reversion in 2025, Yes, but to WHICH Mean?

If container carrier profitability begins to revert to historical mean levels in 2025, it suggests a dramatic decline in financial performance in...

Tracking Traffic

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