High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>An interesting dynamic has emerged over the past few months with mega cap technology companies like Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon all seeing considerable weakness while other pockets of the market have emerged to move higher. </li><li>The market has recently “shaken off” some pretty bad earnings reports from mega cap tech while other pockets of the market continue to see breakouts which is a notable character change from the past few years. </li><li>After seeing mega cap technology earnings results from this past week, some have questioned whether a new crop of market leadership is ready to take over the mantle from the big cap technology companies.</li></ul>

An interesting dynamic has emerged over the past few months with mega cap technology companies like Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon all seeing considerable weakness while other pockets of the market have emerged to move higher. The market has recently “shaken off” some pretty bad earnings reports from mega cap tech while other pockets of the market continue to see breakouts which is a notable character change from the past few years. After seeing mega cap technology earnings results from this past week, some have questioned whether a new crop of market leadership is ready to take over the mantle from the big cap technology companies.

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We analyse our Global fund universe to find out the consensus overweight and underweight exposures, together with the consensus and under-owned stock holdings.</li>
<li>Consensus overweights are led by Developed Europe, Health Care and countries in the EMEA region.  On a stock level, Microsoft and Alphabet are the most widely held companies.</li>
<li>Consensus underweights are led by Asia and selected industry groups such as Telcos and Banks.  Raytheon Technologies and Al Rajhi Bank are among the most under-owned stock in the world.</li>
</ul>


We analyse our Global fund universe to find out the consensus overweight and underweight exposures, together with the consensus and under-owned stock holdings.
Consensus overweights are led by Developed Europe, Health Care and countries in the EMEA region.  On a stock level, Microsoft and Alphabet are the most widely held companies.
Consensus underweights are led by Asia and selected industry groups such as Telcos and Banks.  Raytheon Technologies and Al Rajhi Bank are among the most under-owned stock in the world.


TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Blowout (in a bad way) opex and capex guidance triggered a puke in META. Metaverse spending slowdowns completely ignored by Zuck.</li>
<li>Underlying engagement trends are suprisingly solid, as is underlying revenue growth (which was 8% organic this quarter ex-FX, IDFA, and Reels).</li>
<li>The key question is...what is the LT capital intensity for META to retain its competitive advantage through AI - related spending.</li>
</ul>


Blowout (in a bad way) opex and capex guidance triggered a puke in META. Metaverse spending slowdowns completely ignored by Zuck.
Underlying engagement trends are suprisingly solid, as is underlying revenue growth (which was 8% organic this quarter ex-FX, IDFA, and Reels).
The key question is...what is the LT capital intensity for META to retain its competitive advantage through AI - related spending.


META Platforms 3Q22: You Got to Keep ‘em Separated

<ul>
<li>How long until SNAP gets back to Zuck's original $3B buyout offer?!</li>
<li>Key negative point: US engagement dropped 5% despite user growth +4%...we think its BeReal as much as TikTok.</li>
<li>Uninvestable or Long Time Horizon? Least visibility of any major public company we've ever followed. Don't know the answer!</li>
</ul>


How long until SNAP gets back to Zuck's original $3B buyout offer?!
Key negative point: US engagement dropped 5% despite user growth +4%...we think its BeReal as much as TikTok.
Uninvestable or Long Time Horizon? Least visibility of any major public company we've ever followed. Don't know the answer!


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Global Digital Niaga Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/global-digital-niaga-pt-blibli" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34881:1" rel="noopener">Blibli (1437710D IJ)</a>, a leading Indonesian e-commerce player, has launched an IDR8.2 trillion (US$530 million) Indonesian IPO. Bookbuilding is from 17 to 24 October.</li>
<li>We have previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blibli-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:82294" rel="noopener">Blibli IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blibli-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:82376" rel="noopener">Blibli IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blibli-vs-tokopedia-vs-bukalapak-vs-lazada-vs-shopee" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:82473" rel="noopener">Blibli Vs Tokopedia Vs Bukalapak Vs Lazada Vs Shopee</a>. </li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass.</li>
</ul>



Blibli (1437710D IJ), a leading Indonesian e-commerce player, has launched an IDR8.2 trillion (US$530 million) Indonesian IPO. Bookbuilding is from 17 to 24 October.
We have previously discussed the IPO in Blibli IPO: The Bull Case, Blibli IPO: The Bear Case and Blibli Vs Tokopedia Vs Bukalapak Vs Lazada Vs Shopee. 
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass.


United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon (AMZN US)

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 10/31

An interesting dynamic has emerged over the past few months with mega cap technology companies like Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon all seeing...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Global Equity: Consensus Positioning

We screen 359 Global Equity funds to find the consensus overweights and underweights across regions, countries, sectors, industries and stocks.

Steven Holden

META Platforms 3Q22: You Got to Keep ‘em Separated

We think the current trajectory for META is unsustainable. The company will lose talent soon if the stock doesn't start to work, which requires...

Aaron Gabin

Snap 3Q22: Tik Tik Tik (Tok) …BOOM

3rd 30% drop in a year? Any glimmer of hope? Still growing user base...but US engagement dropped 5% despite user growth +4%...we think its BeReal...

Aaron Gabin

Blibli IPO: Valuation Insights

Bookbuilding will close on 24 October. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass.

Arun George

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