Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Goldwin has had a remarkable run of record sales and profits, a beneficiary of the continuing growth in the outdoor market as well as its own retail strategy. </li>
<li>Although much of its success has come from The North Face, Goldwin is determined to become a more diversified – and global – sports business.</li>
<li>When we first recommended the stock it was around ¥5,000 and rose to a peak of ¥12,600 but is now about ¥9,000. Will it grow again? We think so.</li>
</ul>


Goldwin has had a remarkable run of record sales and profits, a beneficiary of the continuing growth in the outdoor market as well as its own retail strategy. 
Although much of its success has come from The North Face, Goldwin is determined to become a more diversified – and global – sports business.
When we first recommended the stock it was around ¥5,000 and rose to a peak of ¥12,600 but is now about ¥9,000. Will it grow again? We think so.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The rebound in tourist numbers to Japan after Covid was inevitable given the latent demand and ongoing popularity of the country as a destination.</li>
<li>But more surprising has been the huge diversity of nationalities, making up for the lag in Chinese visitors, boosting traffic at key retailers (as listed below).</li>
<li>Also new is the higher spend per visitor thanks to the cheap Yen, boosting retailers across the spectrum. Data from Google and Qunar suggests much more growth to come.</li>
</ul>


The rebound in tourist numbers to Japan after Covid was inevitable given the latent demand and ongoing popularity of the country as a destination.
But more surprising has been the huge diversity of nationalities, making up for the lag in Chinese visitors, boosting traffic at key retailers (as listed below).
Also new is the higher spend per visitor thanks to the cheap Yen, boosting retailers across the spectrum. Data from Google and Qunar suggests much more growth to come.


Japan Tourist Spending Per Head up 50% on 2019 Amid Record Arrivals

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Snow Peak agreement with Bain Capital to take the outdoor brand private next month seems to have been in the works for a couple of years. </li>
<li>Although sales are expected to rebound this year to near record highs, Snow Peak insists the domestic camping boom is over and will look at long-term growth overseas instead.</li>
<li>Even so, the MBO price looks cheap. Snow Peak is likely to see a rebound in domestic sales in FY2024 and its plans for overseas expansion are solid.</li>
</ul>


Snow Peak agreement with Bain Capital to take the outdoor brand private next month seems to have been in the works for a couple of years. 
Although sales are expected to rebound this year to near record highs, Snow Peak insists the domestic camping boom is over and will look at long-term growth overseas instead.
Even so, the MBO price looks cheap. Snow Peak is likely to see a rebound in domestic sales in FY2024 and its plans for overseas expansion are solid.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snow-peak-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7218:1" rel="noopener">Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)</a> has recommended a Bain Capital-sponsored MBO tender offer at JPY1,250 per share, a 58.0% premium to the undisturbed price (15 February). </li>
<li>The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 38.13% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 52.8% minority acceptance rate. While not a knockout offer, the acceptance condition is achievable.  </li>
</ul>



Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP) has recommended a Bain Capital-sponsored MBO tender offer at JPY1,250 per share, a 58.0% premium to the undisturbed price (15 February). 
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 38.13% ownership ratio.
Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 52.8% minority acceptance rate. While not a knockout offer, the acceptance condition is achievable.  


Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain-Backed MBO at JPY1,250

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/Japan-s-Snow-Peak-plans-330m-management-buyout-with-Bain-help" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei reports</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snow-peak-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7218:1" rel="noopener">Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)</a> is set to disclose a Bain-sponsored MBO this week “<em>in the range of 1,200 yen per share.</em>”</li>
<li>Mergermarket first disclosed a potential MBO on Friday. Snow Peak responded that while it is true that we are considering going private, no decision has been made at this time.</li>
<li>The rumoured JPY1,200 offer price is light vs historical trading ranges but attractive vs peer and historical multiples. The probability of an offer materialising is high. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reports that Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP) is set to disclose a Bain-sponsored MBO this week “in the range of 1,200 yen per share.”
Mergermarket first disclosed a potential MBO on Friday. Snow Peak responded that while it is true that we are considering going private, no decision has been made at this time.
The rumoured JPY1,200 offer price is light vs historical trading ranges but attractive vs peer and historical multiples. The probability of an offer materialising is high. 


Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain Contemplating Backing an MBO at JPY1,200

Japan

GOLDWIN INC. manufactures and markets sportswear for skiing, snowboarding, soccer, tennis, swimming, and other outdoor activities.

Goldwin Inc (8111 JP)

Goldwin: Sustainable Records

Goldwin's remarkable sales and profits have continued, despite relying heavily on The North Face. The company now aims to diversify and expand...

Michael Causton

Japan Tourist Spending Per Head up 50% on 2019 Amid Record Arrivals

Japan's tourism rebound post-Covid was expected due to high demand, but diverse nationalities and increased spending per visitor are boosting...

Michael Causton

Snow Peak: Cheap MBO

Snow Peak's agreement with Bain Capital to go private reflects a long-term strategy to focus on overseas growth despite a predicted rebound in...

Michael Causton

Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain-Backed MBO at JPY1,250

Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 52.8% minority acceptance rate. While not a knockout offer, the acceptance...

Arun George

Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain Contemplating Backing an MBO at JPY1,200

The rumoured JPY1,200 offer price is light vs historical trading ranges but attractive vs peer and historical multiples. The probability of an...

Arun George

Goldwin: Sustainable Records

​Goldwin's remarkable sales and profits have continued, despite relying heavily on The North Face. The company now aims to diversify and expand...

Michael Causton

Japan Tourist Spending Per Head up 50% on 2019 Amid Record Arrivals

​Japan's tourism rebound post-Covid was expected due to high demand, but diverse nationalities and increased spending per visitor are boosting...

Michael Causton

Snow Peak: Cheap MBO

​Snow Peak's agreement with Bain Capital to go private reflects a long-term strategy to focus on overseas growth despite a predicted rebound in...

Michael Causton

Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain-Backed MBO at JPY1,250

Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 52.8% minority acceptance rate. While not a knockout offer, the acceptance...

Arun George

Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain Contemplating Backing an MBO at JPY1,200

The rumoured JPY1,200 offer price is light vs historical trading ranges but attractive vs peer and historical multiples. The probability of an...

Arun George

Goldwin's remarkable sales and profits have continued, despite relying heavily on The North Face. The company now aims to diversify and expand...

Japan's tourism rebound post-Covid was expected due to high demand, but diverse nationalities and increased spending per visitor are boosting...

Snow Peak's agreement with Bain Capital to go private reflects a long-term strategy to focus on overseas growth despite a predicted rebound in...