Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. </li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. 


"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Precious and energy-transition metals lead as structural scarcity, central-bank demand, and electrification support gold, silver, copper, aluminium, zinc, and rare earths into 2026.</li>
<li>Bulks and hydrocarbons lag with weak China demand, oversupply, and compressed margins across iron ore, nickel, steel, coal, and crude, keeping the segment firmly underweight.</li>
<li>Top Asia exposures include Zijin, Korea Zinc, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, CMOC, JXAM, SMM, Mitsui, Jiangxi Copper, NALCO, Hongqiao, Hindalco, Shenghe, and CNRE.</li>
</ul>


Precious and energy-transition metals lead as structural scarcity, central-bank demand, and electrification support gold, silver, copper, aluminium, zinc, and rare earths into 2026.
Bulks and hydrocarbons lag with weak China demand, oversupply, and compressed margins across iron ore, nickel, steel, coal, and crude, keeping the segment firmly underweight.
Top Asia exposures include Zijin, Korea Zinc, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, CMOC, JXAM, SMM, Mitsui, Jiangxi Copper, NALCO, Hongqiao, Hindalco, Shenghe, and CNRE.


Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vertically integrated Inner Mongolia smelter with second-quartile cost positioning, expanding renewables and alumina self-sufficiency, and entering overseas low-carbon production via its Saudi project.</li>
<li>FY24 margins inflected sharply; mid-cycle valuation implies material upside with strong sensitivity to aluminium pricing and structural demand drivers including AI datacentres, EVs, and grid expansion.</li>
<li>Base-Case Target Price HK$18.6 (24% upside); bull-case HK$22.1; bear-case HK$16.9, supported by integrated operations and medium-term EBITDA expansion potential.</li>
</ul>


Vertically integrated Inner Mongolia smelter with second-quartile cost positioning, expanding renewables and alumina self-sufficiency, and entering overseas low-carbon production via its Saudi project.
FY24 margins inflected sharply; mid-cycle valuation implies material upside with strong sensitivity to aluminium pricing and structural demand drivers including AI datacentres, EVs, and grid expansion.
Base-Case Target Price HK$18.6 (24% upside); bull-case HK$22.1; bear-case HK$16.9, supported by integrated operations and medium-term EBITDA expansion potential.


Chuangxin Industries: Buy – Attractive Cost Positioning and Medium-Term Growth Visibility

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.</li>
<li>Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.
Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.


India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>The aluminum market is experiencing tight supply, rising premiums, and increasing demand driven by infrastructure and clean energy projects. LME prices have surged 7-8%, indicating a structural shift.</li>
<li>
Higher aluminum prices and regional premiums are positively impacting earnings. Key producers like Hindalco are benefiting from strong operations, cost efficiencies, and favorable market conditions.</li>
<li>Sustained supply constraints and rising premiums, especially from China’s cuts, are expected to drive LME prices higher, ensuring robust growth for Hindalco in the medium term.</li>
</ul>


The aluminum market is experiencing tight supply, rising premiums, and increasing demand driven by infrastructure and clean energy projects. LME prices have surged 7-8%, indicating a structural shift.

Higher aluminum prices and regional premiums are positively impacting earnings. Key producers like Hindalco are benefiting from strong operations, cost efficiencies, and favorable market conditions.
Sustained supply constraints and rising premiums, especially from China’s cuts, are expected to drive LME prices higher, ensuring robust growth for Hindalco in the medium term.


Thematic Report: Aluminum's Growth Story- Investing in the Future of Essential Metals

India

Vedanta Limited mines, produces, and exports base metals. The Company mines and distributes metals such as zinc, iron ore, copper, silver, and aluminium, as well as operates power plants. Vedanta markets its products worldwide.

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Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

Rahul Jain

Chuangxin Industries: Buy – Attractive Cost Positioning and Medium-Term Growth Visibility

Inner Mongolia smelter poised for growth with renewables expansion and overseas projects, FY24 margins strong with potential upside in aluminium...

Rahul Jain

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Thematic Report: Aluminum's Growth Story- Investing in the Future of Essential Metals

Aluminum market sees tight supply, rising premiums, and increasing demand, driving up prices and benefiting key producers like Hindalco.

Nimish Maheshwari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

​Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

Rahul Jain

Chuangxin Industries: Buy – Attractive Cost Positioning and Medium-Term Growth Visibility

​Inner Mongolia smelter poised for growth with renewables expansion and overseas projects, FY24 margins strong with potential upside in aluminium...

Rahul Jain

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Thematic Report: Aluminum's Growth Story- Investing in the Future of Essential Metals

​Aluminum market sees tight supply, rising premiums, and increasing demand, driving up prices and benefiting key producers like Hindalco.

Nimish Maheshwari

Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

Inner Mongolia smelter poised for growth with renewables expansion and overseas projects, FY24 margins strong with potential upside in aluminium...

Aluminum market sees tight supply, rising premiums, and increasing demand, driving up prices and benefiting key producers like Hindalco.