Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>In this insight, we discuss the 9 major risks (excluding valuation issues) for Krafton.</strong> Overall, we believe these significant risk factors could result in much lower than expected demand for the Krafton IPO shares, especially among the institutional investors unless the IPO price range is lowered significantly. </p></div><p style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>1) Too much dependent on one game PUBG</strong></p><p style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>2) Krafton's big political risk with China (<em>Game for Peace)</em></strong></p><p style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>3) Political risks of operating PUBG in overseas countries such as India  </strong></p><p style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>4) Company's sales growth in 2020 helped by COVID-19</strong></p><p style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>5) Declining sales and profit growth in 1Q 2021</strong></p><p style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>6) Comparable companies' worsening sales and profit trend in 1Q 2021</strong></p><p style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>7) Potential acquisitions may not add value</strong></p><p style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>8) Expansion into other entertainment related business may involve execution risks</strong></p><p style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>9) Insiders are selling too much in this IPO </strong></p>

In this insight, we discuss the 9 major risks (excluding valuation issues) for Krafton. Overall, we believe these significant risk factors could result in much lower than expected demand for the Krafton IPO shares, especially among the institutional investors unless the IPO price range is lowered significantly. 1) Too much dependent on one game PUBG2) Krafton's big political risk with China (Game for Peace)3) Political risks of operating PUBG in overseas countries such as India  4) Company's sales growth in 2020 helped by COVID-195) Declining sales and profit growth in 1Q 20216) Comparable companies' worsening sales and profit trend in 1Q 20217) Potential acquisitions may not add value8) Expansion into other entertainment related business may involve execution risks9) Insiders are selling too much in this IPO 

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<p>As soon as Krafton submitted its IPO book, it sparked a valuation controversy. Krafton's revenue is still unusually dependent on a single game, PUBG (PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds). However, even PUBG, which accounts for a significant portion of sales, has markedly slowed its sales growth. Nevertheless, Krafton unreasonably set a high IPO price. The atmosphere of the local street is clear. This level of public offering price is difficult to accept in the market.</p><p>So, the below DETAIL section details several talking points causing the current valuation controversy.</p>

As soon as Krafton submitted its IPO book, it sparked a valuation controversy. Krafton's revenue is still unusually dependent on a single game, PUBG (PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds). However, even PUBG, which accounts for a significant portion of sales, has markedly slowed its sales growth. Nevertheless, Krafton unreasonably set a high IPO price. The atmosphere of the local street is clear. This level of public offering price is difficult to accept in the market.So, the below DETAIL section details several talking points causing the current valuation controversy.

Several Controversial Issues About Krafton IPO Valuation

<h2>Offering size</h2><p>Krafton, one of the hottest IPOs of the year, has released its IPO book. Krafton is a Korean game developer established in March 2007. It offers 10.06M shares, representing <strong>23.25% of the total shares</strong>, of which 55~75% will be institutional allocation.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Offering size"}'>Offering size</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'>Ticker</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"TBA"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"[$₩-412]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[1]C[0]">TBA</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Bourse"}'>Bourse</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KOSPI"}'>KOSPI</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Pre-IPO SO"}'><strong>Pre-IPO SO</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":43274070}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[1]C[0]"><strong>43,274,070</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Offering"}'><strong>Offering</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":10060230}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[3]C[0]"><strong>10,060,230</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"- % of SO"}'><strong>- % of SO</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.23247709309524156}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[5]C[0]"><strong>23.25%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"- Institutional allotment"}'>- Institutional allotment</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"55.00~75.00%"}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[5]C[0]">55.00~75.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><h2>Split</h2><p>This is a split offering at a ratio of 69.88% (primary) and 30.12% (secondary). As a result, this offering will see a capital increase rate of 16.25%. This IPO is free of any additional option: cornerstone, clawback, or greenshoe.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Split"}'>Split</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Primary %"}'><strong>Primary %</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.6987911807185323}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[3]C[0]"><strong>69.88%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Secondary %"}'><strong>Secondary %</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.3012088192814677}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[4]C[0]"><strong>30.12%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Post-IPO shares outstanding"}'>Post-IPO shares outstanding</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":53334300}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-9]C[0]+R[-8]C[0]"><span data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":50304070}' data-sheets-userformat='{"2":15041,"3":{"1":0},"9":2,"10":1,"12":0,"14":{"1":2,"2":3815996},"15":"Courier New","16":9}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-9]C[0]+Terms!R[2]C[0]">50,304,070</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Capital increase rate"}'><strong>Capital increase rate</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.16245294237403599}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[4]C[0]"><strong>16.25%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Dilution"}'>Dilution</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.139750123598349}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[4]C[0]">13.98%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><h2>Schedule</h2><p>The <strong>book opens</strong> on <strong>June 28</strong> for both local and overseas and runs until July 9. The <strong>allotment</strong> will be on <strong>July 12</strong> with a final offering price. The <strong>subscription</strong> follows on June <strong>July 1</strong>4.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Schedule"}'>Schedule</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Book open"}'><strong>Book open</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44375}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'><strong>2021. 6. 28</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Book close"}'>Book close</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44386}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'>2021. 7. 9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Allotment"}'>Allotment</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44389}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'>2021. 7. 12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Subscription"}'><strong>Subscription</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44391}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'><strong>2021. 7. 14</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Payment"}'><strong>Payment</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44396}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'><strong>2021. 7. 19</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Listing"}'>Listing</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"TBA"}'>TBA</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><h2>Pricing</h2><p>The IPO book features 7 valuation peers: Walt Disney, NetEase, Activision Blizzard, Take-Two, INC Common Stock, Warner Music, NCSoft, and Netmarble. The earnings used in this valuation are the 1Q21 based annualized earnings. The average P/E multiple came at 45.20x.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"PER valuation"}'>PER valuation</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Walt Disney Co"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'>Walt Disney</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"NetEase Inc"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'>NetEase</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Activision Blizzard, Inc."}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'>Activision Blizzard</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE, INC Common Stock"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'>Take-Two Interactive Software</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Warner Music Group Corp"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'>Warner Music Group</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"NCSoft Corp"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'>NCSoft</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Netmarble Corp"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'>Netmarble</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'>Ticker</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"DIS"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='="DIS"'>DIS</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"9999"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='="9999"'>9999</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"ATVI"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='="ATVI"'>ATVI</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"TTWO"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='="TTWO"'>TTWO</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"WMG"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='="WMG"'>WMG</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"036570"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='="036570"'>036570</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"251270"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='="251270"'>251270</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Market cap"}'>Market cap</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":357657.17}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩357,657.2B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":84181.24}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩84,181.2B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":82893.153}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩82,893.2B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":23133.711}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩23,133.7B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":19927.275}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩19,927.3B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":18507.241}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩18,507.2B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":11627.165}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩11,627.2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Earnings"}'>Earnings</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4028.263}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩4,028.3B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":3100.659}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩3,100.7B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2767.475}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩2,767.5B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":978.282}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩978.3B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":523.093}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩523.1B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":323.509}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩323.5B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":225.698}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩225.7B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"P/E"}'><strong>P/E</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":88.7869461353442}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]/R[-1]C[0]"><strong>88.79x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":27.149467258411843}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]/R[-1]C[0]"><strong>27.15x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":29.952629382379246}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]/R[-1]C[0]"><strong>29.95x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":23.64728268536066}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]/R[-1]C[0]"><strong>23.65x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":38.09509016561109}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]/R[-1]C[0]"><strong>38.10x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":57.20780874720642}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]/R[-1]C[0]"><strong>57.21x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":51.51647334048153}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]/R[-1]C[0]"><strong>51.52x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Average"}'><strong>Average</strong></td>
<td colspan="7" rowspan="1" style="text-align: center;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":45.2}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}'><strong>45.20x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="8" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>A 45.20x multiple to a 1Q21-based annualized earnings of ₩776.1B implies a market cap of <strong>₩35.07T</strong> for Krafton. </p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"PER valuation"}'>PER valuation</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Krafton"}'>Krafton</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1Q21 earnings"}'>1Q21 earnings</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":194.018}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩194.0B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Annualized earnings"}'><strong>Annualized earnings</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":776.072}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*4"><strong>₩776.1B</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"P/E"}'><strong>P/E</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":45.2}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-6]C[0]"><strong>45.20x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Market cap"}'><strong>Market cap</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":35073.588}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'><strong>₩35,073.6B</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Post IPO SO, incl. stock options"}'>Post-IPO SO, incl. stock options</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":51766185}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>51,766,185</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Price per share"}'><strong>Price per share</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":677538.590104718}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]*1000000000/R[-1]C[0]"><strong>₩677,539</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p><strong>A 17.79~32.40% discount</strong> sets up an indicative price band of ₩458,000~557,000, implying a market cap of <strong>₩23.04~28.02T</strong>.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Pricing"}'>Pricing</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Low"}'>Low</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"High"}'>High</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Price"}'><strong>Price</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":458000}'><strong>₩458,000</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":557000}'><strong>₩557,000</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Base deal size"}'>Base deal size</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4607.58534}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*Terms!R8C2/1000000000">₩4,607.6B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":5603.54811}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*Terms!R8C2/1000000000">₩5,603.5B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Institutional allotment"}'>- Institutional allotment</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2534.171937}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*R4C4">₩2,534.2B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":3081.9514605}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*R4C4">₩3,082.0B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Implied market cap"}'><strong>Implied market cap</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":23039.26406}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]*(Terms!R5C2+Terms!R15C2)/1000000000"><strong>₩23,039.3B</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":28019.36699}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]*(Terms!R5C2+Terms!R15C2)/1000000000"><strong>₩28,019.4B</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Discount"}'><strong>- Discount</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.3240237431653699}' data-sheets-formula="=(R23C2-R[-4]C[0])/R23C2"><strong>32.40%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.17790660467928177}' data-sheets-formula="=(R23C2-R[-4]C[0])/R23C2"><strong>17.79%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>

Offering sizeKrafton, one of the hottest IPOs of the year, has released its IPO book. Krafton is a Korean game developer established in March 2007. It offers 10.06M shares, representing 23.25% of the total shares, of which 55~75% will be institutional allocation.





Offering size

Ticker
TBA


Bourse
KOSPI


Pre-IPO SO
43,274,070


Offering
10,060,230


- % of SO
23.25%


- Institutional allotment
55.00~75.00%

Source: DART

SplitThis is a split offering at a ratio of 69.88% (primary) and 30.12% (secondary). As a result, this offering will see a capital increase rate of 16.25%. This IPO is free of any additional option: cornerstone, clawback, or greenshoe.





Split

Primary %
69.88%


Secondary %
30.12%


Post-IPO shares outstanding
50,304,070


Capital increase rate
16.25%


Dilution
13.98%

Source: DART

ScheduleThe book opens on June 28 for both local and overseas and runs until July 9. The allotment will be on July 12 with a final offering price. The subscription follows on June July 14.





Schedule

Book open
2021. 6. 28


Book close
2021. 7. 9


Allotment
2021. 7. 12


Subscription
2021. 7. 14


Payment
2021. 7. 19


Listing
TBA

Source: DART

PricingThe IPO book features 7 valuation peers: Walt Disney, NetEase, Activision Blizzard, Take-Two, INC Common Stock, Warner Music, NCSoft, and Netmarble. The earnings used in this valuation are the 1Q21 based annualized earnings. The average P/E multiple came at 45.20x.












PER valuation
Walt Disney
NetEase
Activision Blizzard
Take-Two Interactive Software
Warner Music Group
NCSoft
Netmarble


Ticker
DIS
9999
ATVI
TTWO
WMG
036570
251270


Market cap
₩357,657.2B
₩84,181.2B
₩82,893.2B
₩23,133.7B
₩19,927.3B
₩18,507.2B
₩11,627.2B


Earnings
₩4,028.3B
₩3,100.7B
₩2,767.5B
₩978.3B
₩523.1B
₩323.5B
₩225.7B


P/E
88.79x
27.15x
29.95x
23.65x
38.10x
57.21x
51.52x


Average
45.20x

Source: DART

A 45.20x multiple to a 1Q21-based annualized earnings of ₩776.1B implies a market cap of ₩35.07T for Krafton. 






PER valuation
Krafton


1Q21 earnings
₩194.0B


Annualized earnings
₩776.1B


P/E
45.20x


Market cap
₩35,073.6B


Post-IPO SO, incl. stock options
51,766,185


Price per share
₩677,539

Source: DART

A 17.79~32.40% discount sets up an indicative price band of ₩458,000~557,000, implying a market cap of ₩23.04~28.02T.







Pricing
Low
High


Price
₩458,000
₩557,000


Base deal size
₩4,607.6B
₩5,603.5B


- Institutional allotment
₩2,534.2B
₩3,082.0B


Implied market cap
₩23,039.3B
₩28,019.4B


- Discount
32.40%
17.79%

Source: DART



Krafton IPO: Offering Detail, Valuation Issue, & Index Fast Entry

Event-Driven

<p>On 21 May, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netmarble-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22839:1" rel="noopener">Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS)</a> announced that <a href="http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20210521000303" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jam City,</a> its mobile game subsidiary in the U.S. will merge with a SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) called DPCM Capital which is publicly trading on the NYSE. DPCM has a $300 million cash held in trust. Jam City will become a public company in the U.S. in 2H 2021 (likely to be sometime in October). The filing of this merger is <a href="https://sec.report/Document/0001213900-21-028052/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here. </a></p><p>Jam City, which is based in Los Angeles, develops popular mobile games including Cookie Jam and Panda Pop. Jam City is one of the top 10 game publishers in the U.S. According to Jam City, the combined company will have a valuation of $1.2 billion. The newly combined company will be called Jam City Holdings and its stock will be relisted on the NYSE. </p><div class="content-highlight">
<p>As of end of 1Q 2021, Netmarble had a 58.69% stake in Jam City Inc.  Netmarble included a book value of 149.7 billion for its stake in Jam City. Netmarble purchased Jam City in 2015. Netmarble paid 149.7 billion won for its stake in Jam City in 2015 and the purchase value and book value (as of end of 1Q 2021) has remained the same. Adjusted EBITDA of the combined Jam City and Ludia is expected to increase from $33 million in 2020 to $54 million in 2021 and $112 million in 2022.</p>
<p>Since then, Jam City has made numerous acquisitions including buying rights to Disney’s popular game Emoji Blitz in 2018 and rights to Frozen intellectual properties in 2019. Jam City plans to use the cash proceeds from the public offering estimated to be about $400 million to buy a Canada based mobile game publisher called Ludia, which makes games based on the Jurassic World movies.</p>
<p>Overall, we believe this merger will have a positive impact on Netmarble Corp as it its controlling stake in Jam City will be valued at publicly listed market value, which is expected to be much larger than the book value of 149.7 billion won. In other words, Netmarble's stake in Jam City will be more clear and investors will be better able to put a firm value on this stake. Plus, the combined Jam City and Ludia entity has the potential to further capture higher market share in the North American game industry, in terms of both organic growth and strategic acquisitions. </p>
</div>

On 21 May, Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS) announced that Jam City, its mobile game subsidiary in the U.S. will merge with a SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) called DPCM Capital which is publicly trading on the NYSE. DPCM has a $300 million cash held in trust. Jam City will become a public company in the U.S. in 2H 2021 (likely to be sometime in October). The filing of this merger is here. Jam City, which is based in Los Angeles, develops popular mobile games including Cookie Jam and Panda Pop. Jam City is one of the top 10 game publishers in the U.S. According to Jam City, the combined company will have a valuation of $1.2 billion. The newly combined company will be called Jam City Holdings and its stock will be relisted on the NYSE. 
As of end of 1Q 2021, Netmarble had a 58.69% stake in Jam City Inc.  Netmarble included a book value of 149.7 billion for its stake in Jam City. Netmarble purchased Jam City in 2015. Netmarble paid 149.7 billion won for its stake in Jam City in 2015 and the purchase value and book value (as of end of 1Q 2021) has remained the same. Adjusted EBITDA of the combined Jam City and Ludia is expected to increase from $33 million in 2020 to $54 million in 2021 and $112 million in 2022.
Since then, Jam City has made numerous acquisitions including buying rights to Disney’s popular game Emoji Blitz in 2018 and rights to Frozen intellectual properties in 2019. Jam City plans to use the cash proceeds from the public offering estimated to be about $400 million to buy a Canada based mobile game publisher called Ludia, which makes games based on the Jurassic World movies.
Overall, we believe this merger will have a positive impact on Netmarble Corp as it its controlling stake in Jam City will be valued at publicly listed market value, which is expected to be much larger than the book value of 149.7 billion won. In other words, Netmarble's stake in Jam City will be more clear and investors will be better able to put a firm value on this stake. Plus, the combined Jam City and Ludia entity has the potential to further capture higher market share in the North American game industry, in terms of both organic growth and strategic acquisitions. 


Netmarble's U.S. Subsidiary Jam City to Merge with a SPAC & List on NYSE

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>In this insight, we provide an update on the Krafton IPO, including its 2020 financials. It has been reported in the local media that the Krafton IPO could value the company at about <a href="https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2021-01-19-ipo-plans-value-krafton-at-up-to-27bn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">20 trillion won</a> ($18 billion) to 30 trillion won ($27 billion). </p>
<p>If Krafton is valued at about 30 trillion won, it would be close to the combined market caps of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ncsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5169:1" rel="noopener">NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netmarble-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22839:1" rel="noopener">Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS) </a>which are 29.5 trillion won right now. The current<a href="http://www.ipo38.co.kr/forum/?code=259960" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> gray market value</a> of Krafton is 24.5 trillion won ($21.9 billion). </p>
</div>


In this insight, we provide an update on the Krafton IPO, including its 2020 financials. It has been reported in the local media that the Krafton IPO could value the company at about 20 trillion won ($18 billion) to 30 trillion won ($27 billion). 
If Krafton is valued at about 30 trillion won, it would be close to the combined market caps of NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS) and Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS) which are 29.5 trillion won right now. The current gray market value of Krafton is 24.5 trillion won ($21.9 billion). 


An Update on the Krafton IPO - The Largest Game Company in Korea

South Korea

NCSOFT Corporation develops and markets on-line games that enable users to play over the Internet and computer software, such as web editing software.  The Company also designs and constructs databases, Intranet, and commercial Internet access systems.

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NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)

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We discuss the 9 major risks (excluding valuation issues) for Krafton. Overall, we believe these significant risk factors could result in much...

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This post details several talking points causing the ongoing valuation controversy in the local market concerning the Krafton IPO.

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This post contains the offering details, valuation issue, and index fast entry possibilities for Krafton, whose IPO book got released this morning.

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Netmarble's U.S. Subsidiary Jam City to Merge with a SPAC & List on NYSE

On 21 May, Netmarble announced that Jam City, its game subsidiary in the U.S. will merge with a SPAC called DPCM Capital which is publicly trading...

Douglas Kim

An Update on the Krafton IPO - The Largest Game Company in Korea

In this insight, we provide an update on the Krafton IPO. It has been reported in the local media that the Krafton could be valued at about 20...

Douglas Kim

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