Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (27 Oct)

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> rallied 3.2% in Wednesday's morning session. Quantitative models highlight potential for a short-term pull-back.</li>
<li>
Trade Idea: Three actionable option strategies with a bearish tilt are presented, taking advantage of current implied volatility levels and skew.</li>
<li>
Why Read: This Insight combines directional analysis with volatility signals, highlighting a tactical options strategy where high implied volatility and bearish probabilities align, offering investors defined risk/reward.</li>
</ul>



Context: Toyota Motor (7203 JP) rallied 3.2% in Wednesday's morning session. Quantitative models highlight potential for a short-term pull-back.

Trade Idea: Three actionable option strategies with a bearish tilt are presented, taking advantage of current implied volatility levels and skew.

Why Read: This Insight combines directional analysis with volatility signals, highlighting a tactical options strategy where high implied volatility and bearish probabilities align, offering investors defined risk/reward.


Toyota (7203 JP) Up 3.2% Today: Tactical Bearish Option Strategies as Pullback Looms

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Numbers from PulteGroup pointing to a nascent bottoming sends builders higher.</li>
<li>Texas Instruments down afterhours will weigh on Rohm, Fuji Elec, Renesas etc, but this may be short lived.</li>
<li>Can Davinci success in the US be a positive read for Sysmex's Hinotori with the stock on its knees?</li>
</ul>


Numbers from PulteGroup pointing to a nascent bottoming sends builders higher.
Texas Instruments down afterhours will weigh on Rohm, Fuji Elec, Renesas etc, but this may be short lived.
Can Davinci success in the US be a positive read for Sysmex's Hinotori with the stock on its knees?


Japan Morning Connection: So Far Takaichi as PM Is Turning Out to Be a Sell the Fact Moment

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda (7267 JP)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-heavy-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5439:1" rel="noopener">Subaru (7270 JP)</a> price-ratio has deviated two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Going long Honda (7267 JP) and short Subaru (7270 JP) targets a 5% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Honda (7267 JP) vs. Subaru (7270 JP) price-ratio has deviated two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlights: Going long Honda (7267 JP) and short Subaru (7270 JP) targets a 5% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Long Honda (7267 JP) Vs. Short Subaru (7270 JP): Japan Auto Stat Arb Opportunity Targeting 5%

<ul>
<li>
Context: After three consecutive up weeks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota (7203 JP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp-spon-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8245:1" rel="noopener">Toyota ADR (TM US)</a> now screens as overbought, with quantitative models signaling a high probability of a trend reversal.</li>
<li>
Trade Idea: Elevated implied volatility (82–83rd percentile) makes short call strategies attractive. Selling near-term calls captures rich premium while aligning with downside risk.</li>
<li>
Why Read: This Insight highlights a timely opportunity where technical overbought signals and historically rich IV converge — ideal for investors seeking a tactical setup.</li>
</ul>



Context: After three consecutive up weeks, Toyota (7203 JP) / Toyota ADR (TM US) now screens as overbought, with quantitative models signaling a high probability of a trend reversal.

Trade Idea: Elevated implied volatility (82–83rd percentile) makes short call strategies attractive. Selling near-term calls captures rich premium while aligning with downside risk.

Why Read: This Insight highlights a timely opportunity where technical overbought signals and historically rich IV converge — ideal for investors seeking a tactical setup.


Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) Hits Overbought: Rich Options for Tactical Shorts

Japan

Subaru Corp manufactures passenger cars, buses, motor vehicle parts, and industrial machinery.  The Company also produces aircraft parts and supplies it to defense agency and Boeing Co.  The Company sells its passenger cars under the Subaru brand name.

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Subaru Corp (7270 JP)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (27 Oct)

Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Toyota (7203 JP) Up 3.2% Today: Tactical Bearish Option Strategies as Pullback Looms

Explore three actionable bearish option strategies as Toyota (7203 JP) rallies 3.5%. Capitalize on elevated volatility and flat skew while...

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan Morning Connection: So Far Takaichi as PM Is Turning Out to Be a Sell the Fact Moment

Power and analog semi's may take a hit after Texas Instruments fell after hours. May be a buy the dip opportunity for Rohm, Fuji Elec and Renesas....

Andrew Jackson

Long Honda (7267 JP) Vs. Short Subaru (7270 JP): Japan Auto Stat Arb Opportunity Targeting 5%

Potential pair trade opportunity in going long Honda (7267 JP) and short Subaru (7270 JP) for a 5% target return, appealing to quantitative traders...

Gaudenz Schneider

Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) Hits Overbought: Rich Options for Tactical Shorts

Rich options and an overbought signal converge, with models pointing to a probable reversal. Short call strategies allow investors to monetize...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (27 Oct)

​Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Toyota (7203 JP) Up 3.2% Today: Tactical Bearish Option Strategies as Pullback Looms

Explore three actionable bearish option strategies as Toyota (7203 JP) rallies 3.5%. Capitalize on elevated volatility and flat skew while...

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan Morning Connection: So Far Takaichi as PM Is Turning Out to Be a Sell the Fact Moment

Power and analog semi's may take a hit after Texas Instruments fell after hours. May be a buy the dip opportunity for Rohm, Fuji Elec and Renesas....

Andrew Jackson

Long Honda (7267 JP) Vs. Short Subaru (7270 JP): Japan Auto Stat Arb Opportunity Targeting 5%

Potential pair trade opportunity in going long Honda (7267 JP) and short Subaru (7270 JP) for a 5% target return, appealing to quantitative traders...

Gaudenz Schneider

Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) Hits Overbought: Rich Options for Tactical Shorts

Rich options and an overbought signal converge, with models pointing to a probable reversal. Short call strategies allow investors to monetize...

Gaudenz Schneider

Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors, offering unique insights into relative...