Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> remains in a bullish setup. Quantitative models highlight further upside potential in the near term and identify key support levels.</li>
<li>
Trade Idea: With implied volatility near multi-year lows (12th percentile), long call strategies are favored. Suitable expiries and strikes are outlined, with an alternative structure discussed for reducing premium outlay.</li>
<li>
Why Read: This Insight combines directional analysis with volatility signals, highlighting a tactical options strategy where low implied volatility and bullish probabilities align, offering investors defined risk/reward.</li>
</ul>



Context:HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) remains in a bullish setup. Quantitative models highlight further upside potential in the near term and identify key support levels.

Trade Idea: With implied volatility near multi-year lows (12th percentile), long call strategies are favored. Suitable expiries and strikes are outlined, with an alternative structure discussed for reducing premium outlay.

Why Read: This Insight combines directional analysis with volatility signals, highlighting a tactical options strategy where low implied volatility and bullish probabilities align, offering investors defined risk/reward.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Ready for the Rally with Tactical Low-Cost Options

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> has been in a mild pullback since the end of July. The stock closed up for 2 weeks but has not reached any significative overbought level.</li>
<li>This week <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank</a> went down a bit, stayed above the Q1 support level but this pattern is very bullish, in the past it gave way to long, profitable rallies.
</li>
<li>We cannot say for sure if the stock will rally up from here, but if it does, consider profit targets north of 1034 (Q3), and it could rally higher.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has been in a mild pullback since the end of July. The stock closed up for 2 weeks but has not reached any significative overbought level.
This week HDFC Bank went down a bit, stayed above the Q1 support level but this pattern is very bullish, in the past it gave way to long, profitable rallies.

We cannot say for sure if the stock will rally up from here, but if it does, consider profit targets north of 1034 (Q3), and it could rally higher.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Tactical Outlook: Will The Rally Continue?

<ul>
<li>A tactical WEEKLY snapshot of the Asian indices and stocks we cover.</li>
<li>Many Asian stocks we track are flashing very oversold signals—creating tactical long setups worth considering.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> is the only Asian stock overbought.</li>
</ul>


A tactical WEEKLY snapshot of the Asian indices and stocks we cover.
Many Asian stocks we track are flashing very oversold signals—creating tactical long setups worth considering.

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is the only Asian stock overbought.


Asian Stocks Tactical Outlook (Week Dec 22 – Dec 26)

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ChatGPT said: HDFC Bank is now held by 71% of active EM funds — an all-time high, with steady inflows and just one exit in six months.</li>
<li>Aggressive Growth funds show strongest conviction, with multiple holders above a 7% weight.</li>
<li>Post-Merger, HDFC has widened its lead over ICICI and regional peers, cementing its role as EM managers’ core financials exposure.</li>
</ul>


ChatGPT said: HDFC Bank is now held by 71% of active EM funds — an all-time high, with steady inflows and just one exit in six months.
Aggressive Growth funds show strongest conviction, with multiple holders above a 7% weight.
Post-Merger, HDFC has widened its lead over ICICI and regional peers, cementing its role as EM managers’ core financials exposure.


HDFC Bank Limited:  Record Ownership and Dominance Among EM Financials

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.</li>
<li>Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) , S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.
Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.


EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)